Global Courant 2023-04-14 10:54:29
The battle for Bakhmut rages in eastern Ukraine attracted attention from the outside world.
Despite overwhelming odds, Ukrainian troops held their ground and inflicted heavy casualties on the Russian armed forces. Their resilience has also given them time to reorganize their forces and prepare for an expected attack spring offensive.
The problem for Ukraine, however, is that all battles eventually come to a head. Ukrainian troops were able to strike in the early stages of the battle significant casualties on Russian troops, both in terms of soldiers and hardware.
However, the battle has shifted. Ukraine continues to inflict disproportionate losses on Russia. The problem, however, is that Ukraine is unable to replace soldiers as easily as Russia.
Transformation of an army
The Armed Forces of Ukraine underwent major reforms from 2014. Western trainers started the process of transition of the Ukrainian army from a top-down organization to one where lower-ranking individuals, such as lieutenants and sergeants, have influence.
This shift in structure gave the Ukrainian Armed Forces considerable flexibility on the battlefield, which proved to be a significant advantage in the early stages of the war. Junior officers and sergeants were able to respond to developments on the battlefield and achieve significant tactical and even operational success.
However, the structure of the Ukrainian military and the objectives of the Ukrainian political establishment have shifted. The junior officers and sergeants responsible for Ukraine’s success have been killed or promoted as Ukraine 120,000 casualties.
The soldiers who replace them, while their morale is high, don’t have the same training and skills as the people they replaced.
Fight for total victory
This shift is reflected in the political sphere. Initially, Ukraine’s only goal was to keep fighting and prevent a quick Russian victory. That goal was achieved.
Now the Ukrainian troops are fighting for total victory. This is a subtle, but important shift.
Ukraine’s original goal was simple: don’t lose. Now that the Ukrainian troops are going on the offensive, they want to take back the territory taken by Russia. If Carl von Clausewitz, the Prussian general who wrote the 1832 classic On War once noticed, that is a much more difficult task.
This has led to Bakhmut taking on significance beyond its military importance to Ukraine. In addition, there are Ukrainian-Russian casualties, although they are still favorable to Ukraine fewer than they were at the beginning of the battle. Given the disparity in the number of reserves between Ukraine and Russia, the situation benefits Russia.
Yevgeny Prigozhin, the owner of the military company Wagner Group. Image: Twitter
These difficulties are compounded by the main opponent on the battlefield of Ukraine in Bakhmut. The Ukrainian ground forces are mainly fighting the Wagner groupwhich has grown from an elite military force to one dependent on convicts as the war progressed.
In addition, there are tensions between the Russian army and the leader of the Wagner Group, Yevgeny Prigozhin, are well documented.
Now Ukraine, which can afford fewer losses, is losing soldiers undertrained and under-equipped Wagner troops which in many cases are there to escape the Russian prison system.
The next phase of the war
Both sides are preparing spring offensiveswhich means soldiers and ammunition are expensive for Russia And Ukraine right.
Losing undertrained and underarmed Wagner Group members, while Ukraine is losing well-trained Ukrainian soldiers and valuable ammunition in Bakhmut, Russia is gaining an advantage for the crucial coming phase of the war.
Using the Wagner Group in Bakhmut has allowed the Russian army to train the 300,000 soldiers it conscripted in the fall.
The Russian army suffered significant casualties in the first year of his war in Ukraine. Russia lost important people that were expected train and lead any subsequent mass conscription.
Instead of falling further behind in leadership and training, Russia is now using the Wagner Force to buy time. Some argue that the Russian army is too eliminating the Wagner Group as a competitor.
The Russian conscripts into the regular armed forces, instead of going directly into battle without training or equipment – as they were in the desperate autumn months of 2022 – now have time to train and regroup in less prominent areas of the conflict.
Military medics provide first aid to a Ukrainian soldier wounded during a battle in Bakhmut. Photo: AP via The Conversation/Libkos
Armies must remain agile
Never an army stays the same during a conflict. Losses, both in soldiers and ammunition, force an army to constantly change and adapt. The ability to adapt to such changes is an understudied and critical component of any successful campaign.
Bakhmut initially appeared to be a Ukrainian strategic victory as they exhausted Russian forces. But the importance Ukraine attaches to Bakhmut now means that a once-imminent victory threatens to turn into a major defeat.
Ukrainian leaders fixation on the city, like Russia’s own obsession with claiming it, has increasingly become a liability. However, the Russian leadership has adapted resources to their pursuit, while Ukraine uses troops it cannot easily replace.
James Horncastle is assistant professor and Edward and Emily McWhinney Professor of International Relations, Simon Fraser University
This article has been republished from The conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.
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