Global Courant 2023-05-10 19:56:02
Ukraine has launched a counter-attack on Bakhmut from the west and northwest. The Ukrainians have managed to establish a bridgehead on the western outskirts of the city, leaving at least one supply road open for now. The area was defended by the 72nd Motorized Rifle Brigade of the Russian Army, belonging to the 3rd Russian Army.
According to Yevgeny Prigozhin, the brigade fell back (he says “run away”) because they were outnumbered. The Ukrainian operation can best be described as a flanking operation.
Prigozhin says today he is preparing an operation to attack the Ukrainian bridgehead, although it is not clear if that is his responsibility. Meanwhile, he launched an attack suggesting that Putin was a grandfatherly “bastard”. It’s hard to see how long Prigozhin can survive as the leader of the private military contractor Wagner.
In a videotaped interview, Prigozhin leaked that he has received an order stating that if his group retreats, it would be considered treason. He has threatened to leave Bakhmut unless he gets the requested ammunition and supplies. The interview with translation from Prigozhin can be found below.
Bag reportswithout directly referring to the Ukrainian operation, that “Russian strike teams continued offensive operations in the northwestern and western suburbs of Artemovsk (Bakhmut) during the special military operation in Ukraine over the past day.”
According to Tass, Ukraine has deployed the 67th Mechanized Brigade, the 80th Air Assault Brigade and the 5th Assault Brigade along the Donetsk Line. Exactly which units are on the western flank of Bakhmut is not yet clear. Russian operations include airstrikes by fighter-bombers and helicopters.
Keeping the road open will prolong the situation in Bakhmut as more Ukrainian troops and ammunition can be brought into the city, at least for now.
The troops used by Ukraine in this operation may have come from the units preparing for the forthcoming Ukrainian offensive. It is not yet clear which Ukrainian units were involved in this operation.
The Russians seem clearly surprised.
Is Ukraine prepared to pour more troops into this bridgehead? The Russians have a strong defense, which Ukrainian troops should overcome.
From a strictly operational point of view, Ukraine’s attempt to detain Bakhmut makes little sense militarily, as it plays into Russia’s strategy of slowly destroying Ukraine’s military. However, politically and psychologically, this is Zelensky’s battle and he has demanded that Bakhmut be detained at all costs.
Prigozhin was supposed to deliver Bakhmut for Victory Day on May 9, but he failed. The Russians held a pro forma and quiet parade in Moscow, well below the norm. Almost all major field equipment of the Russian army was missing from the parade, as well as air defense systems. Even strategic missiles on parade were limited to just a few.
T-34 Tank in the Victory Day Parade – the only main battle tank on display.
The toned-down parade is hard to explain. It cannot be that the Russian army had no equipment to display. It is quite true that the overall performance of the military leadership in the war in Ukraine is considered disappointing at best by Russian political leaders. It may be that Putin did not want to reward the Russian military until operational performance improved.
In the Ukrainian counter-offensive, it was a Russian army unit and not Wagner’s troops that withdrew from the battle. Whether this was a defeat, as Ukraine claims, or just common sense when you’re outnumbered depends on where you sit.
The next few days will likely reveal whether this is a one-off event or part of Ukraine’s attempt to deploy heavy troops in the battle for the city.
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NB: After a six-day delay, the Pentagon yesterday “confirmed” that a Patriot shot down a Kinzhal missile. I believe this is political confirmation to support Ukraine’s claims, nothing more. Most pundits don’t believe the Patriot would have any chance against the Kinzhal and the Patriot’s past performance in the Middle East has been rather poor.
Stephen Bryen is a senior fellow at the Center for Security Policy and the Yorktown Institute. This article was originally published on his Substack, Weapons and Strategy. Global Courant republishes it with permission.
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