Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) are working hard for a third-time re-election. In the 2019 elections, Modi played an anti-Pakistan card by launching Balakot airstrike on Pakistan which led to his victory in subsequent elections.
Going further back in history, in 1985, Indra Gandhi’s strong anti-Pakistan stance and the pursuit of India’s nuclear weapon program became the reason for her victory in the country’s general election. Similarly, Babri mosque incident in 1992 became the cause of the electoral victory of the BJP in the 1993 election. The nuclear test of Pokhran-II and subsequently threat posed to Pakistan was the main reason behind the electoral success of the BJP in 1999. Mumbai attacks in the 2008 and congress’ win also followed the same pattern in 2009. The party that takes the lead in criticizing Pakistan is certain to prevail in India. The anti-Pakistan narrative used by the BJP for political maneuver has been taken to an art form.
Taking the above facts into consideration, India may once again be considering undertaking a limited military offensive under the pretense of retaliation for convenient mishaps takings place within its own territory. The scheme may take the form of an airstrike, a UAV assault, some sort of ground operation, or an act of violence against a Pakistani navy vessel. However, a rush of diplomatic effort, media hoopla, and forceful declarations from Indian top officials would precede any military action.
BJP’s election campaign in 2019 focused heavily on national security in India and the role of the armed services. However, many analysts think that the Modi government or BJP might have switched their electoral campaign to an economic uplift drive. Prime Minister Narendra Modi heavily exploited the opportunity to showcase his credentials as a world statesman at the G20 gathering. The BJP is currently capitalizing on Modi’s stronger public profile prior to state elections and the next presidential election in May 2024. Local news networks covered every moment of Modi’s meetings with foreign leaders last weekend, including American President Joe Biden, and the compliments he received for the meeting. BJP has already prepared its social media handles with messages of praise from the different world leaders on G-20 platforms. G-20 (Group of Twenty) is an intergovernmental organization in which member states sit together yearly and discuss world issues like economic challenges especially faced by developing countries, food, energy security climate change, etc. India had the opportunity to host the G-20 annual summit this year and address global issues, unfortunately, but not surprisingly, it took advantage of the meeting to promote its own narrow interests. Other than state interests, PM Modi also cashed the opportunity to polish his political career and his party’s agenda.
Meanwhile, in an effort to unseat Modi, more than two dozen opposition groups have band together recently. If they succeed in uniting the anti-Modi vote, this might in posing one of the biggest threat to his rule yet. By blaming his government for the most extreme form of religious violence in at least three years and inflation that has risen to a 15-month high, the new coalition hopes to gain traction. Despite holding a prominent political position in India, Modi has been responsible for the violation of rights of minorities, especially Muslims and has been involved in committing atrocities in Indian Illegally Occupied Jammu & Kashmir. Modi’s reputation has also been impacted by concerns over the unrest in the northeastern state of Manipur and the issue has been widely raised by the international human rights watchdogs. Apart from hosting the G20 summit, the Modi administration’s policies towards minorities are a real-time threat to his political career and the future of BJP in India.
