Global Courant
As an ally of Ukraine, Britain has been a vocal opponent of Russian aggression and has moved first to supply Ukraine with tanks and long-range missiles.
As a participant in the multinational naval force working to neutralize the Yemen-based Houthis’ threat to international shipping, it has raised its own military profile on the world stage.
“We have acted at the forefront of global responses to maintain regional stability,” British Defense Secretary Grant Shapps said in a speech outside Lancaster House on Monday.
In October, after the Palestinian group Hamas attacked Israel, Britain was one of the first countries to send a Royal Navy task force, marines and surveillance planes from Israel.
Last December, after the Yemen-based Houthis attacked international shipping in support of Hamas, Britain joined the US to lead the multinational Operation Prosperity Guardian in the Red Sea.
On Friday, that force struck Houthi military sites after the Houthis attacked the HMS Diamond and US Navy ships with 21 drones and missiles.
The UK used four RAF Typhoon FGR4s to drop Paveway IV guided bombs on two facilities, a site in Bani used to launch reconnaissance and attack drones, and the airfield at Abbs, which was used to launch cruise missiles and drones launch. “Early indications are that the Houthis’ ability to threaten merchant shipping has taken a hit,” the Defense Ministry said in a statement.
Britain has increased its military profile globally and its defense budget at home. Shapps said defense spending, which has already reached 50 billion pounds ($63 billion) this year, would rise to 2.5 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) as soon as possible, and he called on other NATO allies to to follow this example.
The justification for the Red Sea action was to protect world trade.
About 15 percent of the world’s maritime traffic passes through the Strait of Bab al-Mandeb, which separates the Indian Ocean from the Red Sea. From there it reaches Europe via the Suez Canal.
Among the worst affected are container ships, which bring manufactured products from China to the European market.
When Moller-Maersk, the world’s largest container ship operator, said on Jan. 5 it would divert its ships around Africa, it spurred other shippers to do the same. The redirect adds about 10 days of shipping time, increases costs and could drive up prices. Maersk made its decision after Houthis attacked Maersk-Hangzhou on January 2.
Oil tankers are the other major category of affected ships, as they use Suez to bring oil from the Middle East to European refineries. A third of the world’s oil is transported by ships from Greece.
“Greek tanker companies have been monitoring the situation in the Red Sea for some time – well before the most recent events,” an advisor to a Greek tanker operator told Al Jazeera, preferring to remain anonymous. “Incidents widely reported in Yemen in the last quarter of 2022 have alerted everyone to the need to take a prudential stance.”
Not everyone in Europe has seen a similar need for the use of force.
“There is a broader question about the extent to which this was lawful self-defense under Article 51 of the UN Charter,” Angelos Syrigos, professor of international relations at Panteion University in Athens, told Al Jazeera.
“Nothing … shall affect the inherent right of individual or collective self-defense if an armed attack occurs against a Member of the United Nations,” the article said.
“Italy is hiding behind the need for parliamentary approval (of military force),” Syrigos said. “France and Spain are saying: ‘We don’t want to solve this by force because that risks escalating,’” he said.
“It is a huge problem, it is a consequence of other (war) outbreaks. I would not want to open a third war front at this time,” Italian Defense Minister Guido Crosetto told Reuters, referring to the current conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza.
Crosetto has also called on Ukraine to open negotiations with Russia.
The risk of escalation is certainly present.
Both Hamas and the Houthis are armed by Iran. A third Iranian proxy, Lebanon-based Hezbollah, has also threatened to attack Israel. And there is the risk of direct involvement by Iran.
On January 11, Iran seized an oil-filled tanker in retaliation for US authorities’ seizure of a sanctioned Iranian oil shipment last year.
An escalation could pose a significant military challenge. The Israeli army is still fighting Hamas after more than three months of bombings and commando operations. Hezbollah is said to have 150,000 rockets. And the Houthis may still have powerful weapons. They attacked an American-owned ship three days after punitive attacks by the US and Britain.
The London-based International Institute of Strategic Studies believed that Iran had supplied the Houthis with Sayyad and Quds missiles with a range of 800 km (500 mi) and missiles with a range of 500 km (300 mi) with 300 kg (660 mi) nuclear warheads lb).
“Although the Houthis have linked their anti-shipping campaign to the ongoing fighting between Israel and Hamas, the weapons were supplied by Iran long before the Israeli-Hamas conflict broke out in October 2023,” Fabian Hinz of the IISS wrote in an IISS blog. “That suggests a strong long-term Iranian focus on strengthening Houthi anti-ship capabilities and a possible attempt to export Iran’s model of maritime coercion from the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz to the geopolitically important Red Sea and the Street of Bab el-Mandeb. .”
Britain has nevertheless determined that an advance defense is the best deterrent against possible future hostilities by other actors.
“The era of the peace dividend is over,” Shapps said, referring to the post-Cold War years. “In five years, we could be looking at multiple theaters involving Russia, China, Iran and North Korea.”
“Ask yourself – looking at the current conflicts around the world – are the numbers more likely to grow or decrease? I suspect we all know the answer: it will probably grow.”
Britain is about to send 36,000 troops abroad – the highest number of land forces in four decades.
There may also be other reasons why the British government is putting itself at the center of the conflict.
“Britain believes that it is still a great power in the Middle East… it is essentially saying: ‘I must remain there and monitor events because I know the region well,’” Syrigos said .
And Britain’s ruling Conservatives face a general election this year. Polls by Ipsos and YouGov late last year showed that only a quarter of Britons viewed Prime Minister Rishi Sunak favorably, while more than half viewed him negatively.
Whether Britain’s action in the Red Sea will prove as popular as its strong stance in Ukraine remains to be seen.
