Global Courant 2023-05-26 17:03:03
China is poised to break into the Middle East arms market through major deals with Saudi Arabia and Egypt, both of which have traditionally relied on the US for their major purchases.
South China Morning Post (SCMP) reported this this month Saudi Arabia Military Industries (SAMI) is in talks with China North Industries Group Corporation (Norinco) to acquire China-made Sky Saker FX80 and CR500 vertical takeoff and landing (VTOL) drones, Cruise Dragon 5 and 10 loitering ordnance and the Headquarters -17AE Short Range Air Defense System (SHORAD).
The Egyptian Air Force is also reportedly poised to acquire China’s Chengdu Aircraft Industry Group (CAIG) J-10C multirole fighter, with the two sides set to meet at this year’s Langkawi International Maritime and Aerospace Exhibition in Malaysia.
SCMP says Egypt plans to procure 12 J-10Cs, which will be fitted with advanced electronic warfare systems and active electronically scanned array (AESA) radar.
The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) Trends in International Arms Transfers Report 2022 notes that Saudi Arabia was the world’s second largest arms importer from 2018-2022, accounting for 9.8% of global arms imports during that period, with the US providing 78% of Saudi Arabia’s purchases.
The same report notes that Egypt was the world’s sixth-largest arms buyer during the period, accounting for 4.5% of global arms imports, of which 34% came from Russia.
In a 2018 SIPRI articlePieter Wezeman notes that Saudi Arabia wants to diversify its arms suppliers in order to broaden and deepen its international political network in order to minimize the effects of Western arms sales restrictions.
Such restrictions stem from Saudi Arabia’s widely criticized military intervention in Yemen, the brutal 2018 murder of political dissident and journalist Jamal Khashoggi, and last year’s OPEC+ oil price dispute with the US.
Global Courant noted in February 2022 that Saudi Arabia’s push to find arms suppliers in addition to the US may have been prompted by the latter’s disastrous withdrawal from Afghanistan, foreign policy mistakes in Iraq and Syria, a fickle approach to Ira and a shift of strategic focus from the Middle East to the Pacific.
Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman greets Chinese President Xi Jinping during the China-GCC summit in Riyadh on December 9, 2022. Image: Saudi Press Agency
Saudi Arabia’s arms purchases from the US have also been criticized for being politically motivated, overpriced and out of step with the kingdom’s underlying strategic needs.
According to the 2022 SIPRI report, Egypt is the sixth largest arms importer in the world, accounting for 4.5% of global arms imports from 2018-2022, with Russia providing 34% of its purchases.
Russia has not always been Egypt’s preferred arms supplier. Bradley Bowman and other writers take note in a May 2021 Defense News article that before the 2013 coup in Egypt in which then-Defense Minister Abdel-Fattah el-Sissi ousted then-incumbent President Mohammed Morsi, the US accounted for 47% of Egypt’s arms imports.
However, after the 2013 coup, the Obama administration froze sales of planes, tanks and missiles to Cairo for two years until relations improved.
As a result of that freeze, Bowman and the other writers note that Egypt tried to diversify its arms import suppliers by buying large quantities of arms from Russia and France, both of which were willing to look the other way on human rights violations.
However, the threat of US sanctions following the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022 has forced Egypt to drop its planned purchase of 24 Su-35 fighter jets. The poor performance of Russian weapons in the ongoing war in Ukraine may have eroded their appeal to established buyers like Egypt, leading Cairo to look for alternatives from China.
Sebastien Robin notes in a November 2020 Forbes article that China’s best jets, such as the J-10C, may have already surpassed the best that Russia has to offer. Robin notes that China has begun to build a technical lead over Russia in fighter jet development, while the Russian aerospace sector is at a disadvantage due to structural and budget constraints.
Robin notes that the Russian Su-35s have a passive electronically scanned array (PESA) radar, which is inferior to the AESA radar on the J-10C and other modern Chinese fighters. He also says China has improved its own jet engine technology and has superior missiles, more mature stealth technology and better integration of precision-guided weapons than Russia.
Mihir Kaulgud notes in a May 2022 article for Usanas Foundation that China wants to become a great power in the Middle East, but more pragmatic and restrained than the US.
Kaulgud says China’s arms exports to the Middle East demonstrate its drive to establish a “soft presence” in the region, as evidenced by its willingness to sell affordable advanced weapons to friendly countries without political commitment.
Arms sales naturally involve decisions at the highest level of government and thus establish professional links through training and education with the selling country, making them ideal focal points of strategic cooperation for China.
Saudi Arabia flies US-made F-16s. Photo: U.S. Air Force Staff Sergeant Joseph Pick
Kaulgud argues that China is expanding its relations and networks in the region without provoking the US. He notes a pragmatic aspect to these ties, as China may want to secure reliable oil and gas suppliers through its arms sales.
Those sales, Kaulgud notes, could lead Arab states previously aligned with the US to view China as an alternative security partner, with China likely to create new regional security arrangements and even play a stronger role in domestic affairs. politics in the Middle East.
He says that while current arms exports form the basis of China’s security commitment in the Middle East, they can also serve as a springboard to a broader security and military presence in the region.
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