Global Courant
Russia is reportedly importing Chinese dual-use drones for use in Ukraine’s war, despite Beijing’s continued denials that it is supplying war materials to Moscow, according to a Nikkei Asia report. research.
Russian companies imported at least 37 Chinese drones worth US$103,000 between December 2022 and April 2023 that were designated in customs papers for its “special military operation,” the Russian government’s official term for the war in Ukraine, the Nikkei reported. -research.
The investigation also alleges that Russian companies paid Chinese companies $1.2 million for devices that detect and block drones and $36,077 for ten rugged personal computers with paperwork designating all items for use in the “special military operation” to enforce customs procedures. accelerate.
The Nikkei report also alleges that China exported more than 30,000 drones to Russia from March 2022 to May 2023 worth more than $2 million, with Russian import records not using the phrase “special military operation” until December 2022, shortly after Russian President Vladimir Putin had instructed his government to increase supplies of war supplies.
China continues to deny that its drones are being used on Ukraine’s battlefields, which if confirmed could lead to Western sanctions.
“China calls on all relevant parties to work together to strengthen controls, prevent all types of drones from being used on the battlefield in conflict zones, and jointly promote international peace and regional stability,” said a spokesman for China’s Ministry of Trade, quoted by Nikkei.
In May 2022, Global Courant reported that Chinese drone manufacturer DJI, the world’s largest, had suspended operations in Russia and Ukraine. DJI released several statements reiterating its position, saying it had suspended operations pending an internal review of compliance requirements in several regions.
China’s DJI is the world’s largest manufacturer of commercial drones by market share, with global operations in the Americas, Europe and Asia. Photo: Handout
The company said that, as a matter of policy, it does not sell products to customers who intend to use them for military purposes or to cause harm.
DJI also condemned the unauthorized use of its drones in the war in Ukraine, stating that such use goes against its business principles and that it would suspend sales in Russia and Ukraine to ensure its drones are not used in combat.
While DJI’s main products are small drones used for aerial filming and photography, the drones have been known to be used by Russia and Ukraine for reconnaissance, artillery spotting, sniping, and ambushes. Larger drones weighing more than 25 kilograms can be modified for strike purposes.
China has reportedly sent other military aid to support Russia’s struggling war effort in Ukraine, though the extent of its aid remains unclear.
In a February 2023 Q&A for the Carnegie Endowment for International PeacePaul Haenle alleged that Chinese state-owned defense companies shipped navigation equipment, jamming technology and fighter jet parts to Russian government-owned defense companies.
Haenle also reiterated the Biden administration’s position that there would be consequences for China if caught flouting international sanctions and sending arms to Russia, noting that some Chinese companies have already been hit by US sanctions for the sending dual-use technology to Russia.
However, Alexander Gabuev has said the items Haenle identifies were ordered from Ukraine before the war, with both Chinese and Russian defense companies appearing on the US Specially Designated Nationals and Blocked Persons List (SDN) well before the conflict.
Gabuev mentions that it’s hard to imagine what the US could do to curb cross-border rail traffic between the sanctioned Chinese and Russian organizations. He notes that the US may respond by sanctioning other sectors of China’s economy, which Beijing may view as the US using the war in Ukraine as a pretext for imposing punitive measures aimed at hindering a nearby adversary.
Li Mingjiang, an assistant professor at S Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS), Nanyang Technological University in Singapore, says the Chinese government and Chinese companies have been very cautious about doing business with Russia since the start of the war in Ukraine.
Still, Li notes that small Chinese companies may be tempted to use loopholes to take risks by selling to Russia. However, he says China does not want to get involved on an official level, nor be accused of selling military equipment to Russia for use in Ukraine.
China’s balancing act in the war in Ukraine between Russia and the West is complex and delicate, one that cannot afford either side to win too easily or lose too heavily.
A decisive Russian defeat is the last thing China wants, as it would likely encourage the US and its allies to take a tougher stance against China than against Taiwan, including supplying the self-governing island with more advanced weapons.
So it is in China’s broad interest to help Russia stay in the fight in Ukraine. However, China can balance between helping Russia and imposing Western sanctions on its companies and officials.
Russian leader Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping have a shared vision of the New Cold War for the time being. Image: Twitter
Conversely, a Russian victory may not be entirely in China’s interest. In that scenario, Ukraine suffers massive military losses, Western governments succumb to growing social and economic unrest as a result of high global energy prices, and Western support for Ukraine crumbles.
Subsequent peace negotiations are likely to include restoring economic and energy ties between Russia and Europe, removing Russia’s current increasing dependence on China, and maintaining Russia as China’s major power competitor in Eurasia.
A stalemate in which neither side lands a decisive blow could be beneficial to China in the long run. A Korean War-style truce could bring an inconclusive pause to the conflict.
In that scenario, a heavily sanctioned and diplomatically isolated Russia will increasingly rely on China as an economic and diplomatic lifeline, giving Beijing influence over the pricing of Russian energy and raw materials exports, ongoing bilateral border disputes in the Far East and cooperation in the field of military technology. .
That situation would make Russia a subordinate, rather than an equal, partner to China in the emerging new Cold War with the West.
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