Global Courant 2023-04-27 11:01:53
Like Washington’s position on Taiwan, China’s position on the invasion of Ukraine is one of thestrategic ambiguity.”
China has consistently emphasized the importance of sovereignty and territorial integrity, but has not condemned the invasion comforting Moscow of his “friendship without borders”.
So there’s a lot of concern in that European capitals since Beijing’s ambassador to France, Lu Shaye, suggested that former Soviet Union countries “have no de facto status in international law because there is no international agreement to materialize their sovereign status.”
Beijing rolled fast back to thisinsisting on Monday (April 24) that “China respects the status of the former Soviet republics as sovereign countries following the dissolution of the Soviet Union.”
Beijing also reiterated its commitment to facilitating a political settlement of the Ukraine crisis. The Chinese ambassador to the EU Fu Cong even used his interview with a Chinese news outlet claim that his country’s cooperation with Europe was as endless as its ties with Russia were unlimited.
Chinese President Xi Jinping reportedly held a “long and meaningful” phone call with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky – the couple’s first time speaking since the Russian invasion more than a year ago.
This is reported by Chinese state media that Xi told Zelensky that China would not “throw fuel on the fire” of the war, but that peace talks were the “only way out” of the conflict, adding, “There is no winner in nuclear wars.”
Chinese President Xi Jinping and Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelensky finally talk by phone. Image: Screengrab/NBC News
It is no secret that relations between the EU and China have been deeply affected by the war. Recent visits by the French President Emmanuel Macronpresident of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen and the German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock leave no doubt about this.
But they also emphasized how different European approaches to China are and whatever they are to influence transatlantic relations. While the Western coalition in support of Ukraine has been held together thus far, it is also increasingly evident that it is being held together economically, politically and militarily by US leaders.
This was also evident at the recent meeting of the EU’s Foreign Affairs Council in Luxembourg. That was what the Bloc’s High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Josep Borrell, had done little news to offer to that of the EU three-track plan to supply Ukraine with one million artillery ammunition.
Most critical, and most disappointing for Ukraine, is that proposals on how to increase European defense production capacity have yet to be finalized.
So is a new EU sanctions package against Russia probably not closed see you later in May. And the EU and Japan pushed back in return for a US plan for the G7 countries to ban all exports to Russia.
All this adds to the question marks already raised about the prospects for a successful Ukrainian counter-offensive in leaked US intelligence assessments.
divided west
It also signals continued and deep uncertainty – and division – in the West about whether, how and what to negotiate with Russia.
On the one hand, there are those who are urging the West to double down and dramatically increase its military support for Ukraine. Others proponent for a new strategy that will take the contest from the battlefield to the negotiating table.
Both approaches have their own inner logic. Both want to avoid a long, damaging stalemate on the battlefield.
Such a stalemate would not only incur extra costs for Moscow and Kiev, but would also have repercussions far beyond the front lines in Ukraine. Former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev has already done so threatened to end the current deal that allows Ukrainian grain exports through the Black Sea.
This forms an essential food supply line for many developing countries. If Russia were to pull the plug on the deal, this would also increase further tensions within the EU on transit (and market access) for Ukrainian grain.
No wonder countries like Brazil are skillful to see how China tries to mediate between Russia and Ukraine.
French fears
For Chinese President Xi Jinping, Brazil’s support is clearly more important than that of his French counterpart. Macron is allegedly work with China to create a framework for Russian-Ukrainian negotiations.
However, he has been on a grand scale convicted to do this. Only the Italian Defense Minister, Guido Croscetto, has that detached the idea that China should mediate peace talks.
Macron has a track record of, if not openly pushing for, negotiations, he is at least considering ways to establish credible avenues that can get them started.
He was widely reported in June last year criticized for suggest that Russia should not be humiliated. In December last year he suggested security guarantees for Moscow, an idea that was similar Made fun of by Ukraine and other Western allies.
Chinese President Xi Jinping, his French counterpart Emmanuel Macron and European Commission President Ursula von de Leyen meet for a working session in Beijing, China April 6, 2023. Photo: Ludovic Marin / Pool
France’s continued commitment to the need for negotiations, though very outspoken, should not simplistically be seen as a rush to make concessions to Moscow.
It also reflects, at least in part, the very real difficulties ahead on a possible path to military victory in Ukraine. These difficulties are to some extent the fault of the West, in particular the lamentable lack of defense capabilities of the EU itself.
But the French position also reflects fears of further escalation of the war with Russia, as foreshadowed in Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov’s recent speech in the UN Security Council and of an irreversible deterioration in relations with China.
The spate of European visits to China over the past six months, get started with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz last November, is an indication of how important that relationship is for the EU and its main member states. And that France is not alone in trying to end the war in Ukraine, sooner at the negotiating table than later on the battlefield.
The EU’s inability to make decisive commitments to bolster Ukraine’s capacity to win – and curb Russia’s – is a symptom of a wider struggle over what Europe’s vision of the future of the international order is and what role it wants to play in it.
Standard or draft, the outcome of this match will also determine the fate of Ukraine.
Stephen Wolff is Professor of International Security, University of Birmingham
This article has been republished from The conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.
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