Global Courant
“There are known known; there are things we know we know. We also know that there are known unknowns; that is, we know there are some things we don’t know. But there are also unknown unknowns – the ones we don’t know we don’t know.”
—Donald Rumsfeld
At this point, we are very much in unfamiliar territory when it comes to the coup attempt in Russia and its aftermath.
Vladimir Putin has already told us in no uncertain terms that when Yevgeny Prigozhin and the Wagner group agreed to stop their incursion, the country avoided civil war. According to Putin, the deal with Prigozhin prevented “fratricide” warfare.
But Putin’s wording let us know that it could have been a civil war. In other words, Putin feared that Russia itself would face a truly existential crisis.
Meanwhile, Prigozhin has flown back to Moscow from Belarus, reportedly for just a few hours, to further flesh out Wagner’s future. Without financial support from Russia, Wagner will go bankrupt. Prigozhin appears to be relying on Putin’s promise not to harm him.
Prigozhin owns his own business jet, an Embraer Legacy 600. The jet is under Western sanctions.
Bakhmut puzzle
Another strange development took place north of Bakhmut yesterday, where the Ukrainians have made advances against Russian forces who dug in to prevent Ukraine from taking the flanks and forming a pincer in that city.
While the Ukrainian troops mounted their attack, well visible to the Russian side, the Russian artillery remained silent and made no attempt to support Russian defenders. This is quite unusual, as the Russian army bases a significant part of its defense capabilities on artillery strikes. What does it mean?
The lack of artillery support in northern Bakhmut could mean that no local Russian commander is in charge of artillery and missile forces in the area. How is that possible? Have they been arrested or purged, or is something else going on?
An alternative explanation is that Russian artillery was needed elsewhere as Ukraine is reinforcing its counter-offensive in the Zaporizhzhia area. However, Ukraine has been attacking around Bakhmut for a few weeks now, so withdrawing Russian artillery seems an unlikely move.
Colonel General Andrey Yudin
The third data point is based on speculative statements by Russian military bloggers. They are proverb that General Sergey Surovikin and his deputy, Colonel General Andrey Yudin, have been transferred to Moscow’s Lefortovo Prison for “preliminary” interrogation.
This claim appeared even before the New York Times said that US intelligence considered it possible that Surovikin was involved in the preparations for the Prigozhin-Wagner operation. When Surovikin and Yudin are arrested, bigger problems lie in wait for the Russian army command. The New York Times suggested that other Russian generals might be involved.
It is worth remembering that Surovikin made a video calling on the Wagner forces to halt their operation to invade Russia and return to their camps. It is debatable whether this video actually reached Wagner’s forces during their operation – or whether it was prepared so that Surovikin could plausibly deny being part of Prigozhin’s coup.
One of the quirks of the video, as I mentioned earlier, is that Surovikin holds an automatic pistol under his right arm.
If this is a larger crisis in the Russian military extending far beyond Surovikin, it could lead to the collapse of Putin’s leadership and a remake of the Russian state. To survive, Putin would have to control the situation, appease the generals in general, and remove a few bad apples at the same time.
Putin has a presidential guard and a security team to protect him. But in a time of stress, uncertainty and duplicity, Putin will have to look over his shoulder all the time.
Security guarantees for Ukraine
In Ukraine itself, Russian forces have suffered two or three setbacks over the contact line in recent days, but (apart from the Bakhmut flank) appear to be operating on a normal basis.
Observers say Ukraine will take a big step in the coming week to see if it can win a meaningful victory. This would help NATO provide security guarantees to Ukraine, which are in fact worth much more than becoming a NATO member.
NATO membership is a collective defense agreement and Article 5 of the agreement requires consultation in case a member state comes under attack. It does not guarantee a response or dictate what will happen. In addition, it requires a unanimous vote for implementation – and a formal vote to defend Ukraine with troops is something some NATO members may oppose.
Providing security guarantees to Ukraine is something else. It circumvents the alliance’s collective defense foundation and pre-commits NATO to come to the defense of Ukraine. This is something that is new and to some extent frightening as it seems like it would be an indefinite commitment with no member vote afterwards.
If NATO continues with Ukrainian security guarantees, and assuming they are real guarantees, it would mean a huge change in the base of the NATO alliance.
Meanwhile, the saga in Russia continues to unfold.
Stephen Bryen is a senior fellow at the Center for Security Policy and the Yorktown Institute. This article was originally published about his substack, weapons and strategy. Global Courant republishes it with permission.
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