Global Courant
It has now been almost 600 days since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, and the war that followed has tested the resilience of both countries. But it has also tested those in the West who have supported Ukraine from the start.
This was evident in the mixed reception Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky received last week when he visited the US and Canada. Meanwhile, tensions in Europe over support for Ukraine have flared up again.
With the Ukrainian counter-offensive still falling short of – perhaps inflated – expectations, we are starting to see the first serious signs of a crumbling consensus in the West on how seriously different governments are committed to supporting Ukraine for as long as necessary.
Zelensky’s visit to North America began with a speech at the UN General Assembly in New York, making an impassioned appeal to fellow world leaders to maintain international order and support his country. While there is still broad support for the principles of sovereign equality and territorial integrity, things are becoming increasingly vague when it comes to how to end the war.
There are two camps: many Western leaders follow Ukraine’s line that the country’s territorial integrity must first be restored. Others – including many countries in the South – prefer to emphasize the importance of dialogue and an early end to violence.
Volodymyr Zelensky’ wants to attack Russia at the United Nations.
This pattern repeated itself the next morning Open debate of the UN Security Council about the war in Ukraine, with a predictable conflict between Zelensky and the Russian Foreign Minister, Sergei Lavrov, who presented very different stories about the causes and dynamics of the war.
But before the debate could conclude, the UN Security Council turned his attention to the Nagorno-Karabakh crisis, which is a clear indication that Ukraine is not the only pressing issue on the global agenda.
Zelensky continued on to Washington DC, where he secured a new military aid package worth $325 million. This aid can be provided directly by US President Joe Biden under the so-called presidential recording authority.
Another $24 billion in aid, yet to be approved by Congress, is more problematic. Republican House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy wouldn’t commit to place a bill to that effect on the legislative schedule before the end of the year.
McCarthy also denied The Ukrainian president was given the opportunity to address a joint session of the House of Representatives and the Senate, another sign of growing Republican opposition to the Biden administration’s enthusiastic support for Ukraine.
When he moved to Canada, Zelensky received a universally warm reception and left with one military aid package worth C$650 million (US$482.4 million).
Europe: growing divisions
Meanwhile, in Europe, three of Kiev’s neighbors within the EU – Hungary, Poland and Slovakia – have defied the end of an EU-wide ban on grain imports from Ukraine.
Poland then went one step further and also put a – temporary – stop deliveries of weapons to Ukraine. This was criticized by Zelensky in his speech for the UN General Assembly as “political theater” and a gift to Moscow.
The grain conflict between Poland and Ukraine has ended simmer for some time, and it was a question of when, not if, it would eventually escalate. Importantly, it foreshadows other potential obstacles on Ukraine’s path to EU membership.
Some of these may be in Ukraine itself. As Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission, noted in its annual state-of-the-union In her speech in the European Parliament, “accession (to the EU) is based on merit,” she acknowledged “the great progress that Ukraine has already made.”
However, accession negotiations will not be opened until the commission has issued a positive opinion on Kiev’s progress on the seven conditions set in June 2022, when Ukraine was granted candidate country status. This decision is expected before the end of 2023.
Once accession negotiations begin, the interests of individual EU member states will play a greater role in determining the speed at which Ukraine can make progress. The current row with Poland is just one indication of this possible problems aheadalbeit in the particularly sensitive area of the EU’s common agricultural policy.
This will be deeply affected if Ukraine – a global agricultural superpower – joins.
Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki clearly wants to be seen protect the farmers of his country of uncompetitive practices of Ukrainian exporters, especially in the run-up to the crisis a parliamentary election next month.
Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki’s support for Ukraine is waning. Image: Twitter
But this is also about leadership and the potential challenge that Ukraine’s membership of the EU would pose to Poland’s ambitions to be the main voice of the bloc’s eastern members.
Such an open attack on Zelensky and his policies significantly shifts the tone of what is considered acceptable criticism of the highly charismatic Ukrainian president. It comes in the wake of growing Western unease about the class And costs of the war.
This is not to say that Ukraine has not made progress since the offensive began just before the summer. In recent days, Ukraine has made even more gains in the south and launched a spectacular attack at the headquarters of the Russian Black Sea Fleet in occupied Crimea last weekend.
But Ukraine’s recent successes are almost certainly not enough to dispel the growing sense that the war is becoming a lasting stalemate. So far, Western support has supported Ukraine’s efforts to defend itself. But it has done no more than that and is not enough to enable a Ukrainian victory.
If last week’s events are a sign that this support is beginning to weaken, avoiding a Ukrainian defeat can no longer be taken as a given. Nor can it be argued that this was merely a defeat for Ukraine; it would also mean that the Western alliance does not have the staying power to overcome the current confrontation with Russia.
Stefan Wolff is professor of International Security, University of Birmingham And Tetyana Malyarenko is professor of International Relations, Jean Monnet professor of European Security, National University Odesa Law Academy
This article is republished from The conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.
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