Global Courant 2023-05-23 16:33:29
Three years after the coronavirus began to terrorize the world, the World Health Organization declared on May 5 that it was “over as a global health crisis”. On May 11, the Biden administration ended the public health emergency in the United States.
In a sense, these and similar statements by other countries are merely symbolic milestones. They give official status to the way the world has been dealing with Covid-19 for some time now.
Much of the public has long since returned to pre-Covid normality, exposed, unlocked and carefree. People travel on overcrowded planes and eat in overcrowded restaurants and generally live as if Covid is gone.
That is not true. The emergency may be over, but the disease is still very much with us. The controversies surrounding it continue to swirl. The long-term economic and social effects continue to unfold.
The number of covid deaths is decreasing, but comparisons with the flu are incorrect. Although Covid will not be in the top three or four this year causes of death in the US, where it has been ranked for the past three years, it will probably be in the top ten, at 100,000 or more. The highest recent annual death toll from the flu was 52,000 in 2017-2018.
The controversy over the origin of the epidemic continues to rage. You can see that in the differing views of the nine US intelligence agencies studying the issue. Two believe a lab leak in China was to blame, and polls show most Americans support this theory. In support of this, investigative journalists have dug up evidence that risky research was being conducted.
Five out of nine think the coronavirus was zoonotic, meaning it passed from an animal to a human recent research suggests a raccoon dog. A lot of scientists believe passionately in this theory.
Covid-19 is over as a public health emergency, but far from over. Image: World Health Organization
The last two intelligence agencies are undecided, and I can see why. The support for both theories is circumstantial at best; there is no direct evidence for either, partly because China did not cooperate. Remember that six out of seven agencies with an opinion have only ‘little confidence’ in it. (The seventh, the FBI, believes with “average confidence” in lablek theory.) (https://www.wsj.com/…)
Another controversy that is not yet “over” revolves around masking. Two controversies really: whether mask wearing should be mandated during pandemics and whether individuals should choose to wear masks. Underlying both is the question of whether masking works.
There are plenty of strong opinions on this question, both pro and con, but few high quality studies. A meta-analysis or review of studies by the Cochrane Library attracted attention a few months ago when it suggested that masking made no difference, but Cochrane says the study was misinterpreted.
A Substack paper makes it plausible that the Cochrane study is “inconclusive” and outlines the problems with other studies. I found it fair and insightful, and some of the comments it generated were helpful. The conclusion of the newspaper? “Don’t let anyone convince you of a one-word answer to the question: Do masks work? It depends.”
The economic and social changes brought about by Covid will stay with us for years, if not decades. Hypersonic federal releases. Increased inflation. Interrupted training. Greater political division.
One consequence of Covid that is of particular concern to rural America is the Zoom Boom. Working from home didn’t stop when the lockdowns ended. Many continue to telecommute. National demand for office space is down 47% compared to February 2020, just before Covid hit. In cities with a high cost of living like Boston, New York, Washington and San Francisco, it is down more than 50%.
Some organizations allow employees to come to the office at least a few days a week. However, for many employees, telecommuting has become a full-time occupation and as a result, some are moving to more desirable places to live. According to the New York Times“The vacant office space in New York City could fill 26.6 Empire State Buildings.”
Rural America will benefit, especially as broadband internet penetrates deeper into rural areas.
All in all, it is therefore good that the authorities have declared a state of emergency. But “over” does not mean forgotten. The aftershocks of the Covid-19 earthquake will turn our lives upside down for years to come.
Former Wall Street Journal Asia correspondent and editor Urban Lehner is editor emeritus of DTN/The Progressive Farmer.
This article, originally published on 21st of May by the latter news organization and now republished with permission by Global Courant, is © Copyright 2023 DTN/The Progressive Farmer. All rights reserved. Follow Urban Lehner on Twitter: @urbanize
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