International Courant
It has lengthy been mentioned that Congress is so much like college.
What’s the very first thing they do at college? Take the presence.
That is one factor they regular do not do this in Congress.
However possibly subsequent 12 months.
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Determining who’s current and accountable and who just isn’t shall be some of the dramatic every day occasions on Capitol Hill.
It is all the time concerning the math on Capitol Hill.
However the 119th Congress will Actual is about arithmetic.
Day-after-day within the Home will depend upon who’s sick. Who has a dad or mum/instructor convention? Whose airplane was delayed because of snow. Who merely skips college and isn’t dependable. Who was giving a speech within the metropolis, bought caught in visitors and simply did not get again in time. Whose baby is starring within the college play? Whose aunt died.
President Trump and Home Republicans have massive plans for his or her 2025 legislative agenda. However the minuscule dimension of the Republican majority might dampen these expectations each day.
Home Majority Chief Steve Scalise (R-LA) speaks throughout a press convention together with different Home Republican leaders on the US Capitol in Washington DC, United States on November 19, 2024. (Posner/Anadolu by way of Getty Pictures)
Will probably be fascinating to see what the Republicans can pull off.
The Republicans will in all probability begin the brand new 12 months with a majority of 219 to 215. So 434 seats. There may be one emptiness as a result of former Rep. Matt Gaetz, R-Fla., resigned. That could be a margin of 4 seats. However in actuality, it signifies that the Republican majority can tolerate just one Republican defector in any roll name vote with no need assist from the opposite aspect. One Republican no is 218-216. However two Republican rebels tie the sport at 217-217. As a rule, ties lose within the Home of Representatives.
However the begin of the brand new Congress on January 3 might signify the Halycon days for the Republican Convention of the Home of Representatives.
Reps. Elise Stefanik, R-N.Y., and Michael Waltz, R-Fla., plan to resign in January to hitch the Trump administration. Stefanik is a candidate for United Nations ambassador and desires affirmation for that put up. The president-elect tapped Waltz as nationwide safety adviser. That place just isn’t topic to Senate affirmation. The Republican majority will subsequently lower to 217-215. At that second, Republicans can not lose votes to go their agenda.
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That is an issue for Republicans within the Home of Representatives, who frequently had a squadron of defectors — starting from preserving the federal government open to even ousting Homeland Safety Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas. This might even spell hassle for Home Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., who’s returning to the Speaker’s suite. Johnson should win an outright majority of all voting members of the Home of Representatives when the brand new Congress convenes on January 3 to change into president. He can have some help when the brand new Congress begins. Nevertheless it will not be a lot. Republicans within the Home of Representatives are nonetheless affected by political PTSD after the 15 rounds it took to elect former Home Speaker Kevin McCarthy, R-California, early final 12 months.
Sure. There shall be a particular election to fill the seats of Gaetz, Stefanik and Waltz. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis (R) has already known as a particular election for Gaetz’s seat for April 1.
You’ll be able to’t make this up.
U.S. Consultant Matt Gaetz (R-FL) waves on stage through the third day of the Republican Nationwide Conference on the Fiserv Discussion board on July 17, 2024 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. (Leon Neal/Getty Pictures)
The opposite particular elections are nonetheless months away as a result of Stefanik and Waltz haven’t but resigned. If Stefanik is appointed and resigns on the finish of January, it could possibly be as late as Might earlier than a particular election for her seat takes place — based mostly on New York regulation and the discretion afforded to New York Governor Kathy Hochul (D).
The end result of particular elections generally produces ‘particular’ outcomes. The same old citizens periodically stays residence and the opposing celebration wins these seats in off-cycle elections. So though these are “Republican” seats, there isn’t a assure that Republicans will robotically prevail.
But when all goes in accordance with plan, Republicans will regain these seats inside just a few months, with a comparatively strong majority of 220 to 215. Meaning Republicans might lose as much as two votes on each main problem.
However there are all the time absences. All the time fired.
And this is not restricted to the Republican aspect of the aisle.
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There have lengthy been issues concerning the well being and attendance of 79-year-old Rep. David Scott, D-Ga., the highest Democrat on the Home Agriculture Committee. Scott was criticized earlier this 12 months for a scarcity of public appearances and interviews.
Rep. Raul Grijalva, D-Ariz., 76, is the highest Democrat on the Home Pure Sources Committee. Grijalva promised that this time period could be his final after affected by most cancers. The illness saved Grijalva out of motion for months. He missed greater than 300 roll name votes within the Home between February and this fall and didn’t conduct interviews.
Late Reps. Sheila Jackson Lee, D-Tex., Invoice Pascrell, DN.J. and Donald Payne Jr., D-N.J., had been all in workplace after they died this 12 months. The late Sen. Dianne Feinstein, D-California, died in 2023.
Democrats are at the moment making loads of noise about newly-elected President Trump’s agenda. Will probably be the Democrats’ job to have a full presence to oppose the Republicans and customarily make life depressing for almost all. However the Democrats can solely do this in the event that they present up. On a regular basis.
Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y., Home Minority Chief, will maintain his weekly information convention on Thursday, Might 23, 2024, on the Capitol Customer Heart. (Tom Williams/CQ-Roll Name, Inc by way of Getty Pictures)
That was the case when Home Minority Chief Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y., gained the vote of each Democrat within the Home in each roll name for Home Speaker final January and October. Delegates. Solely Rep. David Trone, D-Md., missed just a few votes as a result of he underwent a surgical process. However Trone returned to Capitol Hill later that night to vote.
Rep. Al Inexperienced, D-Tex., was hospitalized final February. However Inexperienced got here to the Capitol in a wheelchair in February to assist torpedo the preliminary effort to oust Mayorkas. The Republicans had three defectors on their aspect. Inexperienced’s vote, contemporary off a hospital stretcher, pressured the Republican celebration’s effort to crash to the bottom and check out once more.
One issue that posed a problem to the Republican Occasion was the well being of Home Majority Chief Steve Scalise, R-La. Scalise was identified with most cancers final 12 months and was out for the primary a part of 2023. Scalise has since recovered. However his absence hampered the Republican Occasion on massive votes, resembling Mayorkas’ preliminary impeachment.
Sadly – and inevitably – there shall be absences because of well being causes. And God forbid loss of life. Hardly ever does a Congress go with out the loss of life of a lawmaker – generally unexpected. The late Rep. Jackie Walorski, R-Ind., and two aides had been killed in a visitors accident in the summertime of 2022.
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So take heed to the attendance clocks within the Home of Representatives subsequent 12 months. View the climate forecast and flight schedule at Reagan Nationwide Airport. Simply have a look at Waze as they fly to Dulles. See if the flu or one other spherical of COVID burns by way of Congress.
Sure. Understanding whether or not somebody is for or towards a selected invoice or modification is all the time essential in Congress. However what takes its place is whether or not they’re really current.
Chad Pergram is at the moment a senior congressional correspondent for FOX Information Channel (FNC). He joined the community in September 2007 and relies in Washington, DC
