Global Courant
A recent remark from a major business figure in Japan is sure to raise alarm among the country’s nativists.
Hiroya Masuda, the CEO of Japan Post Holdings, a large conglomerate that operates the country’s post offices, told the major business news outlet Nikkei in a June 21 interview that some towns and cities had to prepare for a future where “40-50% of the population … will be foreigners”.
Speaking on behalf of independent policy group Reiwa Rincho, of which he co-leads, Masuda called on the government to implement reforms related to immigration, education, social security and tax policies with more foreign residents in mind.
Masuda’s prediction of a more immigrant-dominated Japan mirrors population projections from the National Institute of Population and Social Security Research. A report released by IPSS on April 26 closed that by 2070 Japanese nationals will make up only 77 million of Japan’s total population of 87 million.
The IPSS report predicted a further decline in the fertility rate and an increase in net immigration in the coming years, implying that a larger foreign population will prevent a sharper decline in the total population. IPSS’ projection of a Japan with more than 10% foreign-born population is a dramatic increase from the current estimate of 2.2%.
Dubai’s experience
As Japan thinks about how to live with more foreigners in its midst, Dubai, the largest city in the United Arab Emirates, could be a good reference.
Dubai, with foreigners making up a few 92% of 3.3 million inhabitants represents an extreme case of an immigrant-dominated society that people like Masuda believe may eventually become. But instead of succumbing to conflicts between ‘natives’ and foreigners, Dubai has grown into a major business center in the Middle East.
By means of large scale automated visa processing, the stock of long-term “golden visas” to highly educated, wealthy individuals, and the branch of free trade zones that allow for 100% foreign ownership of companies, Dubai has attracted and leveraged foreign talent for rapid economic development.
For Japan to emulate Dubai’s experience in leveraging foreigners for economic growth, a particularly important reference point is how to prevent the natives’ ambivalence toward foreigners’ wealth and success from turning into outright resentment.
Facts show that more than two-thirds of the Japanese population believe that hiring in Japan should give priority to Japanese nationals, the highest figure among multiple countries surveyed. And despite file number of foreigners in Japan, survey results from 2003 to 2018 show a steady decline in the general public’s interest in interacting with foreigners.
Decreased interest in studying or traveling abroad among the Japanese youth only exacerbates the problem.
Two-layer system
Dubai’s response to preventing indigenous resentment is the systematic use of discriminatory policies in favor of natives.
Dubai offers no path to permanent residency or citizenship for the vast majority of foreign residents, forcing them to leave once they no longer have any economic value to the city. Those are civilians only used benefits such as free education, cheap land and well-paid jobs in the bureaucracy.
The combination of such policies ensures that natives feel that they are benefiting concretely from a continued influx of labor migrants. In other words, they come to feel that the government is “on their side,” using the output of immigrant labor to maintain the natives’ relatively higher standard of living and, by extension, higher socioeconomic status.
Policies that provide additional benefits to the indigenous population have largely prevented widespread xenophobia, despite a large foreign population.
Whether Japan is willing to replicate this Dubai model of deliberate policy discrimination against foreign residents may come down to the moral values of its business and political leaders.
Dubai is certainly not a paradise for immigrants. Several research has shown that the city’s immigration policies have failed to protect Dubai’s migrant workers from exploitation by employers, with many workers dying under harsh working and living conditions.
As a self-proclaimed liberal democracy with respect for universal human rights, Japan may find it ethically difficult to codify the unequal treatment of foreigners in its laws, even if the result is that a native population is more accepting of a greater foreigner presence.
As Japan rethinks its immigration policies to face a future with dramatically more foreign residents, Dubai offers both an optimistic and cautionary tale.
On the one hand, Dubai provides a blueprint for a foreign-driven economic renaissance, based on natives accepting an economic environment dominated by foreign talent and money.
On the other hand, it has achieved economic success by often turning a blind eye to, and even enabling, through discriminatory policies, widespread mistreatment of its most vulnerable foreign workers.
As Japan’s more immigrant-dominated future approaches, the pros and cons of the Dubai model need further exploration.
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