International Courant
Elon Musk hugs Donald Trump throughout a marketing campaign rally in Butler, Pennsylvania on October 5, 2024.
Anna Geldmaker | Getty Photographs
Elon Musk’s relationship with Donald Trump has fueled expectations that he might soften the US president’s coverage stance on Beijing, however specialists are warning in opposition to placing an excessive amount of inventory within the Tesla CEO.
The billionaire was one in every of Trump’s prime marketing campaign donors and will reportedly obtain a reward cupboard or recommendation function within the White Home.
Within the run-up to the elections, their relationship was aroused Beijing’s curiosity due to Musk’s shut ties to China, the place his firm Teslaruns an enormous ‘gigafactory’.
“There was widespread curiosity in China in current months about whether or not Musk could possibly be the subsequent Kissinger, serving to dealer a deal between Washington and Beijing,” stated Scott Kennedy, senior advisor and Trustee Chair in Chinese language Enterprise & Economics from the Heart for Strategic and Worldwide Research.
“Whether or not that is an ingenious perception that may assist stop relations from imploding or a part of an unrealistically soothing state of affairs that Chinese language wish to inform themselves is tough to say at this level,” he added.
US diplomat Henry Kissinger, who died final 12 months, is credited with normalizing US-China relations beginning along with his first go to to Beijing in July 1971.
Kissinger was deeply revered in China and continued to fulfill with its leaders as an unofficial diplomat in efforts to advertise hotter relations between the 2 international locations. Simply months earlier than Kissinger died in November 2023, he met with Chinese language President Xi Jinping in Beijing in July 2023.
I hope Musk can repair the issues gap left by Kissinger got here as he more and more engages with senior officers in China, the place he based Tesla in 2018 because the nation’s first wholly foreign-owned automaker.
The Tesla and SpaceX CEO met with Chinese language Premier Li Qiang throughout his final go to in April, who cited Tesla for instance of profitable commerce cooperation between Beijing and Washington. state media.
Wang Yiwei, director of the Institute of Worldwide Relations at Renmin College, informed CNBC that Musk is seen as a businessman who understands each China and the US.
This might lead him to push for some flexibility on and even cancel the strict tariff will increase Trump has threatened to impose on Chinese language-made merchandise, Wang stated. He hoped Musk’s work in manufacturing would facilitate a deal for Chinese language firms to construct factories within the US
Musk has expressed concern about tensions between the 2 international locations and criticized the Joe Biden administration when it raised tariffs on Chinese language electrical autos to 100% earlier this 12 months. The Biden administration has launched a collection of insurance policies aimed toward bringing high-tech producers again to the US, lots of which Trump is predicted to implement.
Businessman, not a diplomat
To have an actual influence on US coverage, one businessman, even the richest on the planet, is not going to be sufficient to enhance relations as Kissinger as soon as might, stated Wang Huiyao, founding father of the Beijing-based assume tank Heart for China. and Globalization.
As an alternative, Wang stated a bunch of prime enterprise and thought leaders, together with Elon Musk, Apple’s Tim Prepare dinner and Blackstone Group’s Stephen Schwarzman, might act as a “group of Kissingers.”
They might not have the identical influence as Kissinger, given the extra complicated interval, he stated, though they might assist stabilize relations.
Prepare dinner And Schwarzmann additionally recurrently go to leaders in China, the place they’re typically highlighted by Beijing as examples of optimistic enterprise and commerce ties between China and the US.
Dewardric McNeal, director and senior coverage analyst at Longview International, informed CNBC: “Whereas it’s true that China has sometimes used influential Individuals as unofficial conduits, it’s a stretch to see Musk as a modern-day Kissinger.”
For these “casual intermediaries,” the first obligation is to shareholders and to not nationwide pursuits, he stated. He added that lively political involvement might result in “conflicts of curiosity” and put company leaders underneath intense scrutiny if diplomacy fails.
Throughout Trump’s first time period, China had already tried to arrange “again channels” with distinguished American businessmen, together with entrepreneur and actual property developer Steve Wynn, in hopes of influencing coverage, McNeal stated.
Such efforts appeared to have had little impact on Trump’s method to China and led to the Justice Division issuing a lawsuit who tried to register Wynn as a international agent for his alleged lobbying on behalf of the Chinese language authorities.
This time, Trump has introduced his intention to impose a blanket tariff of 10% to twenty% on all imports, together with further tariffs of 60% to 100% on merchandise imported from China.
“Musk may open some doorways, however none that tough, dedicated diplomacy will not additionally open,” McNeal stated, including that it could possibly be a miscalculation to pin diplomatic hopes on such a determine, whose major loyalty goes to his personal firms.
“Musk’s unpredictability and powerful, generally controversial positions don’t essentially align with the diplomatic or strategic pursuits of both nation.”
Elon Musk is not any Kissinger however might assist enhance US-China relations, specialists say
World Information,Subsequent Large Factor in Public Knowledg
