Global Courant 2023-04-26 18:15:58
When China’s foreign minister visited the Philippines last weekend, he had a stern message for President Ferdinand E. Marcos Jr. his previous commitment not to take sides, he said.
On Wednesday, Mr. Marcos at the Philippines’ annual military exercises, while the United States, clad in an Army fatigue jacket, closely inspected a US missile launcher. He later sat next to the US ambassador as they watched artillery units knock out a nearby target ship.
It was the first time in a decade that a Philippine president participated in these joint military exercises, and the message was unequivocal: After years of mostly China’s aggressive campaign to push for territorial disputes with the Philippines, the Philippine government has once again moved towards its oldest ally, the United States.
This desire to do so comes as relations between the United States and China have fallen to their lowest point in years. Governments across Asia are increasingly concerned about these tensions, particularly fearing a possible Chinese invasion of Taiwan. In Manila, there is heightened concern about what such an attack could mean for the Philippines, whose northernmost inhabited island is only 150 kilometers from Taiwan.
The sinking of the ship on Wednesday — the first exercise of its kind in the Philippines — was the culmination of this year’s joint exercises, dubbed “Balikatan,” or shoulder-to-shoulder.
For two weeks, the military trained all over the Philippines, including on Basco Island, which overlooks the Bashi Channel, a waterway that separates Taiwan and the Philippines. They represented the largest gathering since joint exercises began 38 years ago, involving 12,200 United States soldiers and 5,400 Philippine troops.
The new nature of the joint exercises underscores a shift within the defense organization of the Philippines. For years, the military viewed the main threats as internal threats. The soldiers fought against a communist insurgency and later against terrorist groups. But it is now refocusing on a strategy of international defense after Marcos ordered the military not to lose an inch of its territory in February.
In an interview, Lieutenant General Romeo Brawner Jr., the commander of the Philippine army, said the Russian attack on Ukraine was like an eye-opener.
“Many people said it’s impossible for Russia to invade Ukraine,” he said. “Anything is possible. So we have to prepare for that – for every possible threat.”
The joint exercise was another major step toward security cooperation since announcing early this year that the Philippines would allow the US military access to four new military staging areas in the country – three of which overlook Taiwan and one overlooking the South China Sea.
General Brawner said one of his priorities now is to figure out how to evacuate Taiwan’s 150,000 Filipino workers if war breaks out. Earlier this month, China’s ambassador to the Philippines, Huang Xilian, sparked outrage in the Philippines after he said the government should “oppose Taiwan’s ‘independence’ rather than fan the fire by allowing the US access to the military bases near the Taiwan Strait”. if it cared about the Filipino workers in Taiwan.
Like several other Southeast Asian countries, the Philippines has been embroiled in decades-long disputes with China over resource-rich islands and vital fishing grounds in the South China Sea. But Beijing’s drive to occupy the reefs and shoals in the sea has become arguably a more exciting problem in the Philippines than anywhere else.
Many Philippine fishermen say they are constantly harassed by Chinese militia vessels and can no longer fish around the islands. A 2021 poll of 1,200 Filipinos found that nearly half of them believed the Philippine government was “not doing enough” in the South China Sea dispute. At the time, the former president, Rodrigo Duterte, had embraced China and said he couldn’t go into a battle he couldn’t win.
Euan Graham, a senior fellow for Indo-Pacific defense and strategy at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, said: “What has changed is that the Philippines has concluded that they need the United States as the only realistic means of balancing come with China.”
The Philippines’ defense budget for this year is only about $4.2 billion, and it has few of the powerful weapons that China has. But it has acquired several long-range Brahmos missiles from India and two frigates from South Korea equipped with anti-ship missiles. Israel has supplied anti-aircraft missiles.
More weapons could come. After talks held by both the United States and the Philippines’ foreign and defense ministers earlier this month, Washington said it would commit to adopting “a roadmap for security sector assistance” in the Philippines, which would “share shared investments in defense modernization”. Mr. Marcos will meet President Joe Biden in Washington next week.
Collin Koh, a research fellow and expert on maritime security in Southeast Asia, said the Philippines “could help complicate China’s defense planning in the South China Sea.” “Even weaker actors can achieve certain victories,” he said, pointing to the way Ukraine’s army, which was far too underpowered, had shocked and thwarted Russian forces over the past year.
In the event of an attack on the Philippines, General Brawner said his army “will defend unilaterally at first, but then we will expect help from our allies and our partners.”
Although the United States and the Philippines are bound by a 1951 mutual defense treaty, many Philippine officials have long been skeptical about whether the United States would come to the aid of the Philippines in the event of a Chinese attack. Now they say they are more reassured, especially after several visits by senior US officials.
Major General Joseph A. Ryan, commander of the 25th US Infantry Division, stationed in Hawaii, said the US military held a seminar with their Filipino counterparts in Manila in late February in which the Filipinos “discussed their concept for the defense of the Philippines if it were to be attacked by China.
“They presented that to us because they wanted us to see it,” General Ryan said by phone. “And I believe they also wanted us to understand in case they called us asking for our help.”
General Ryan said this was an example of a significant change in the attitude of his colleagues in the Philippines. “This is an area where two years ago they were not open to this level of dialogue with us on this particular issue,” he said.
Most polls show Filipinos to be overwhelmingly pro-American, with ties stretching back to the history of the Philippines as a U.S. territory from 1898 to 1946. Several nationalist groups have expressed anger at the Philippines being embroiled in a geopolitical battle that is not of their choice. But a survey conducted late last year by Pulse Asia, a polling firm, found that 84 percent of Filipinos believe the Marcos administration should work with the United States to defend Philippine sovereignty in the South China Sea.
General Brawner said that when the United States had bases in the Philippines, he felt a sense of security from seeing the stripes of American jets in the sky. But the closure of these bases – at Subic Bay and Clark Air Base – in the early 1990s coincided with the “some claimants” becoming more aggressive in the South China Sea.
He said he invited Charles Flynn, the commander of the US Army Pacific, to Corregidor Island earlier this month, where as part of a tour they both viewed US weapons delivered to the Philippines in the early 1900s. . That prompted General Flynn to note that, according to General Brawner, the Americans were already preparing for a war that would take place four decades later.
“So he said, ‘This could be history repeating itself,'” General Brawner said.
Jason Gutierrez and Camille Elemia contributed reporting.
