Global Courant
Stats SA published its Q1 23 Quarterly Employment Statistics (QES), its enterprise-based survey of formal non-farm jobs and employee wage trends. Total formal nonfarm employment fell by 21,000 in the first quarter of 23, largely due to job losses in domestic trade (-36,000) and the financial intermediation and business services sectors (-32,000). the seasonal reversal of holiday rentals.
These more than offset a remarkable 41,000 increase in community, social and personal services employment, driven primarily by large job gains in provincial government departments. With the decline in the first quarter of 23, total formal nonfarm employment fell by 97,000 from the first quarter of 22, indicating recent downward pressure on jobs amid a series of adverse shocks to the economy. In addition, formal employment is 324,000 below pre-pandemic levels (Q4 19).
The revenue side of the QES shows that average income per employee improved to 6.5% y/y in Q1 23 from 5.1% in Q4 22, but this implies that employee income continued to fall in real terms. The lengthy release of the QES gives these data a strong backward tilt, but they are still a useful reading of the labor market’s challenge relative to consumer spending. The BER’s Q2 23 Consumer Confidence Index due out tomorrow at noon will also be a key consumer pulse.
Source: Stats SA, Absa Research
Foreign tourist arrivals recovered significantly in May after accounting for seasonal factors.
Tourist migration data released yesterday by Stats SA shows that the number of foreign tourists increased by 8.1% m/m sa in May, after falling by 4.4% in April. The number of arrivals in May was about 1.4 times higher than in May last year, indicating a relatively strong recovery over the past year.
However, tourist arrivals were still 18.6% lower compared to pre-pandemic levels (ie, Q4 2019). Data published last week by Stats SA showed that operating income in the accommodation sector in April this year was about 23% below pre-pandemic levels. Looking ahead, the strength of the global economy and sentiment around South Africa, amid ongoing power supply challenges, could influence the pace of recovery in the tourism industry.
Eskom announced a slight escalation of the tax shedding this morning.
A delayed recommissioning of some generating units has forced the utility to shut down Phase 2 during the daytime from 7am to 4pm, while Phase 3 remains in operation during the evening. It is the first time since June 6 that the utility has implemented alternating power outages on a weekday. Eskom’s latest detailed statement on Sunday showed an energy availability factor of 56% of installed capacity due to outages amounting to 16,524 MW, while another 4,376 was offline due to planned maintenance.
Formal nonfarm employment fell in Q1 23 while real
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