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A Democratic win in Indiana. A Republican victory in New Mexico. And an election the place Missouri was determined by lower than 4,000 votes.
They’ve all occurred within the final twenty years.
These outcomes are little greater than trivia questions immediately (the solutions are 2008, 2004, and 2008 once more). On the time, they raised eyebrows and adjusted our understanding of the citizens.
Surprises occur on election week. And when the nationwide race seems to be this shut, one surprising flip can resolve who wins the White Home.
Harris nonetheless nearer to 270 than Trump, however it’s anybody’s recreation
Vice President Harris nonetheless has the sting on this week’s forecast. It predicts that Harris will take dwelling a minimum of 241 electoral faculty votes to Trump’s 219.
Fox Information Energy Rankings presidential forecast.
Her benefit is not any bigger than it was in September, and as this column has talked about, battleground states are normally – and principally – received and misplaced collectively. The six toss-up states on this forecast are value 78 votes, sufficient to provide both candidate a victory on election night time.
Nationwide polls present a decent race: a Quinnipiac survey has Harris and former President Trump tied at 48%-48% with seemingly voters, whereas Marist has the candidates at 50%-48%, nicely inside the polls’ margins of sampling error.
FOX NEWS POWER RANKINGS: TRUMP MAINTAINS LEAD ON TWO TOP ISSUES
Neither ballot reveals Trump slipping with the nationwide citizens. Different latest polls confirmed a degree value of abrasion after the September presidential debate.
Fox Information Energy Rankings presidential map.
Battleground state polls have been sparse. (Hurricane Helene has devastated communities in Georgia and North Carolina, and Hurricane Milton will quickly make landfall in Florida. This can have an effect on the accuracy of polling in these areas.)
Total, this race remains to be anybody’s recreation.
All eyes on an October shock
Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz and Ohio Sen. JD Vance debated every week in the past in New York Metropolis. Vance principally broke by way of the character that Democrats had constructed for him, whereas Walz stumbled out of the gate.
A flash ballot confirmed neither candidate successful the night time. As at all times, await outcomes from a number of polls carried out within the weeks after the controversy to correctly assess the polling influence.
That was the one scheduled occasion that might shock voters this month. (Fox Information Media has proposed a second Harris-Trump debate later in October.)
4 weeks till election night time.
After all, it’s the surprising occasions in years previous which have finished extra to reshape the race. And occasions in two classes have already resurfaced.
Extreme climate: Hurricane Sandy tore by way of the northeast in late October 2012. President Obama’s cooperation with New Jersey Governor Chris Christie was a landmark second. This yr, Helene and Milton are testing the candidates. Trump made visits to Georgia and North Carolina final week, and Harris was in Asheville over the weekend with Governor Roy Cooper.Overseas coverage: A video from Osama Bin Laden 4 days earlier than the 2004 election refocused the race on 9/11, nationwide safety and America’s struggle on terrorism. Yesterday marked a yr since Hamas’ terrorist assault in Israel and struggle rages between Ukraine and Russia; each are reminders of world instability through the Biden Administration.
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Polarization will restrict the influence of those occasions on the horserace. However watch Harris and Trump’s assist with independents over the approaching weeks. These voters made up 5% of the citizens in 2020, and so they broke for President Biden by 15 factors; latest polls put Harris in that ballpark. Trump seemingly must claw that again to win the race.
Two states that might shock in November
Fox Information Energy Rankings Possible D & Possible R races.
There are 9 “seemingly” races on the Energy Rankings map. The 2 that may have the largest influence on the race are Florida and Virginia.
Former President Trump improved his efficiency in Florida within the 2020 presidential election, bringing his margin as much as about 372,000 votes.
That’s a win of three.4 factors, or his second-closest victory of the cycle. (The closest was North Carolina, a toss-up within the rankings, which he received by 1.3 factors.)
Florida is Possible R on the Energy Rankings.
Republicans have robust benefits. The state’s White working-class and senior voters lean in direction of Trump, whereas its giant Hispanic inhabitants, notably the Cuban and Venezuelan communities, has shifted proper in recent times.
The GOP received huge at each degree within the midterms and enjoys a 1 million-plus voter registration benefit, and most tellingly, the Democratic Celebration shouldn’t be making important investments.
Democrats hope {that a} aggressive Senate race, the place incumbent Republican Rick Scott has personally spent greater than $8 million, means the presidential election is nearer than individuals suppose. Florida can be considered one of three aggressive states with an abortion measure on the poll.
It will take a blowout night time for Harris to flip the Sunshine State. It will even be the primary state after the battlegrounds to go blue.
Florida stays at Possible R within the rankings.
A win for Trump in Virginia would even be surprising, particularly since Biden received this state by greater than 10 factors in 2020.
Virginia is Possible D on the Energy Rankings.
The state has the next proportion of Black, suburban, and college-educated voters than the remainder of the nation, and all three teams assist Democrats run up the margin. Whereas Republicans talked about Virginia after the June presidential debate, the race has modified, and neither get together is making huge investments within the state immediately.
Harris leads in Virginia.
Some polls present a race that isn’t over for the GOP. A survey from Virginia Commonwealth College in September put Harris at 47% with registered voters and Trump at 37%. A ballot from the Washington Submit earlier within the month had Harris at 50% to Trump’s 42%.
Nonetheless, it might take a blowout within the different path for the Outdated Dominion to reject Harris. Virginia stays a Possible D race.
4 weeks till election night time
1.5 million voters have forged a poll to this point.
Greater than 1.5 million voters have forged their poll because the countdown to election night time continues. Early voting has now begun in:
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The Harris ticket continues a media tour this week whereas Trump will rally in Scranton, Pennsylvania. The GOP has finished surprisingly nicely there in recent times.
