International Courant
Officers in Moscow and occupied Crimea have been fast to say that the harm to Russia’s solely bridge to the peninsula shouldn’t be severe and that street and rail visitors will quickly be restored.
Russian Deputy Overseas Minister Marat Khusnullin has given assurances that the piers haven’t been broken and that the bridge will probably be totally repaired by November 1.
Nonetheless, the assault has hit the primary logistics route by which Russian army forces are provided, not solely within the Crimean Peninsula, but additionally in southern Ukraine, the place Kiev is waging a counter-offensive to regain management of the territory that Russia has seized. , since he began the struggle in February 2022.
“The Crimean bridge is the primary logistical hyperlink,” stated Pavlo Lakiychuk, a army analyst on the Kiev-based Technique XXI institute.
“Even when the railway on the street is closed for, say, six hours, and the provides are stopped for that variety of hours, which means a six-hour break for our troops, as fewer bombs will probably be launched in opposition to them. It is a plus.”
Lakiychuk rejected Russian President Vladimir Putin’s declare that the bridge “has not been used for a very long time” for army transport.
“The bridge has been and stays one of many predominant provide arteries for the Russian forces situated within the south of Ukraine, together with Crimea,” he stated.
He stated that the bridge is used to move heavy gear, which Russia is utilizing within the struggle in opposition to Ukraine.
“The delay within the provide of those gear for an hour, two, three, six, or 12 is significant for our army troops, who consistently face fierce battles”, stated Lakiychuk.
“The channel of provides to Russia is blocked”, he declared, amongst different issues.
Khusnullin, the Russian Deputy Prime Minister, who’s engaged in supervising the restore works, wrote on July 18 in Telegram that part of the bridge has been reopened for automotive visitors.
The harm induced to the bridge has additionally had an impression on civilians in Crimea.
Provides of meals and different merchandise – throughout the bridge – have been halted, at the least quickly, and the Russian occupation authorities have warned that it’ll take a number of days for visitors to be restored.
The vans are being transported by ferry, however transportation could also be compromised because of excessive winds within the space.
This month, earlier than the assault, truck drivers had been already reporting delays because of inspections.
When explosions had been heard within the Crimean metropolis of Kirchi, on the finish of the bridge, on July 9, de facto officers informed residents that the bridge was not focused.
“Individuals in Crimea are proper when they’re fearful concerning the Kirchi bridge, as a result of the transit by the Ukrainian territory occupied by Russia shouldn’t be secure,” stated Lakiychuk.
Information web site Kerch.fm reported in June that truck drivers have refused to journey from Russia to Crimea and again by occupied components of southern Ukraine because of poor safety.
Crimea is taken into account a struggle zone and the peninsula has been focused by quite a few drone strikes and different assaults in 2023. The occupying authorities are within the strategy of constructing trenches and different fortifications.
Nonetheless, Ukrainian army analyst Mykhaylo Prytula, a retired military colonel, informed RFE/RL that Kiev’s technique is to isolate the peninsula as a lot as potential.
“In some unspecified time in the future, Crimea will merely be an island with none land entry, or by way of the Krçi bridge,” he stated.
“Think about a Crimea with out water. No army provides… All that can work is the airport and perhaps the ports. Street visitors will probably be closed, and folks will be unable to evacuate their belongings.”
“At that time, the one answer will probably be give up or escape,” stated Prytula.
The 19-kilometer-long Crimean Bridge, which permits street and rail visitors, was opened in Might 2018 and value Russia $4 billion.
The bridge was inaugurated by Russian President Vladimir Putin himself.
Kiev has not claimed duty for the explosion – the second on the bridge in 10 months – however Ukrainian media have reported that safety providers have launched two navy drones to hold out the operation.
Lakiychuk has stated that one thing like this constitutes vital technological progress for Kiev.
He stated that Ukraine began utilizing maritime drones after the beginning of Russia’s struggle in Ukraine, in February 2022, and that the work was carried out “in a state of struggle”.
“If that is true, the Russian aspect was not ready for the Ukrainian army capabilities of utilizing drones,” he stated.
He added that such operations produce worthwhile info for the Ukrainian intelligence providers, in order that future operations might be profitable.
“Intelligence can have numerous work now”, stated Laviychuk.
The July 17 eruption follows a serious eruption in October 2022 that blocked the bridge for months.
Lakiychuk stated that the truth that the bridge was broken in each instances signifies that its foundations are weak.
After the explosion that occurred on the bridge in October 2022, Russia was compelled to extend controls in each instructions, stated Refat Chubarov, president of the World Congress of Crimean Tatars, based mostly in Kiev, on June 30. earlier than the ultimate explosion occurred.
“These measures will proceed to be utilized so long as the bridge exists, till it’s destroyed at some point by Ukrainian missiles. I believe it should occur quickly”, he stated. /REL
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