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The crack of Louisville Slugger ash bats connecting with rawhide baseballs laced in Costa Rica will quickly echo all through ballparks throughout North America.
A dulcet-toned announcer will lunge ahead from his seat within the press field, perched three tiers above dwelling plate. The announcer will squint, seeking to see if the ball hooks simply contained in the foul pole a number of hundred ft away down the appropriate subject line.
“Going! Going! Gone!” he’ll chirp because the ball hugs the pole, staying simply truthful. The ball then caroms wildly, round an array of seats, concrete and fumbling followers, bouncing prefer it’s been triggered by a paddle in an arcade pinball machine.
Maybe the Home of Representatives might rent a few of these baseball announcers right here on Capitol Hill.
WHITE HOUSE BLASTS HOUSE GOP BUDGET, SAYS BIDEN WON’T LET THEM ‘DEFUND THE POLICE’
It’s fairly potential the Republican Home majority is “going, going.” Gone is one other query. However the state of affairs of Democrats seizing management of the Home is rising as a definite chance.
Management of the Home of Representatives has by no means flipped in the midst of a Congress.
But when it’s going to occur, the 118th Congress is as ripe for that chance.
Home Republicans face chaos of their convention. Members who deliberate to retire subsequent January at the moment are ditching Capitol Hill early. The Home is an acrimonious place with yet one more transfer afoot to dethrone the Speaker. FOX is informed that different Republicans are angling to get out as quickly as they’ll. An enormous payday within the non-public sector might lure some members to money of their voting playing cards early.
First, let’s speak concerning the size of a given “Congress.”
Congress is named “Congress” as a result of that’s when Home members and senators convene in Washington. The phrase “Congress” means “coming collectively.” So lawmakers are right here on the Capitol for the 118th time since beginning the first Congress in 1789 at Federal Corridor in New York Metropolis. Voters elected Home members and a few third of all senators to the current 118th Congress in November 2022. Every “Congress” begins at midday ET on January 3 and runs till 11:59 am et on January 3 two years later. So the 118th Congress launched on January 3 of 2023. It expires within the late morning of January 3 subsequent yr. Thus, the time period of all Home members which started final yr runs out on the identical time subsequent January. These elected this November will serve within the 119th Congress starting subsequent January 3.
Home Republicans thought they could have a 50-seat majority in January 2023. They gained management of the Home – however solely by a handful of seats. The meager majority then dithered for 5 days earlier than lastly electing former Home Speaker Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., as their chief.
The rancorous Speaker’s race foreshadowed what was to come back.
CONGRESSIONAL DIVERSITY AND INCLUSION OFFICE SHUT DOWN BY $1.2T GOVERNMENT FUNDING DEAL
McCarthy was performed by October. The Home burned greater than three weeks electing Home Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., as McCarthy’s successor. Now Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, R-Ga., has had sufficient of Johnson. She’s authored a decision to take away the Louisiana Republican for his “betrayal” of Home Republicans on the most recent spending invoice. The Home wound up passing the invoice with 185 Democratic yeas – however solely 101 Republican ayes. Plus Johnson violated the GOP’s inner rule which supplies members a full three days to learn laws earlier than voting.
Textual content of the invoice appeared simply earlier than 3 am ET final Thursday. The Home closed the vote on the invoice at 11:45 am et final Friday.
Johnson signaled earlier than the vote that he may not grant lawmakers the requisite three days to course of their laws.
“There’s nothing sacred about 72 hours. The thought is you need the laws to be reviewed adequately by the members earlier than they vote on it. We’re the occasion that believes in that precept. We’re attempting to take care of it even in a time crunch,” stated Johnson as he darted throughout Statuary Corridor of the Capitol.
Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, left, and Home Speaker Mike Johnson, proper. (Getty Photographs)
And but Johnson gave up on the rule so the Home might approve the invoice earlier than a looming authorities shutdown deadline.
Johnson’s gambit infuriated the appropriate. However different Republicans weren’t upset. Rep. Greg Murphy, R-N.C., needed to waive the rule, including that the Home shouldn’t assign a vote “to a time.” Murphy was able to vote immediately.
“What is that this? A check?” requested Murphy. “Learn sooner.”
However Greene was via with Johnson. She ready to indicate the Speaker the door after the Home accepted the spending measure.
UKRAINE AID COULD BE SAVED BY OBSCURE CONGRESSIONAL RULES, REAGAN-ERA POLITICS, BOLL WEEVILS AND GYPSY MOTHS
“I don’t want to inflict ache on our convention and throw the Home into chaos,” stated Greene. “However I’m saying the clock has began. It’s time for our convention to decide on a brand new Speaker.”
However Greene may not even get the possibility in addition Johnson. It isn’t out of the realm of chance that the Home might flip management to the Democrats earlier than 11:59 am et subsequent January third. In different phrases, throughout this Congress.
It’s concerning the math.
Former Rep. Ken Buck, R-Colo., resigned final Friday. Buck hit the door after refusing to vote to question Homeland Safety Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas. Rep. Mike Gallagher, R-Wisc., additionally refused to question Mayorkas. Gallagher initially deliberate to remain till January. However now the Wisconsin Republican departs on April 19. That’s instantly after the date which mandates a particular election in Wisconsin. However since Gallagher checks out in mid-April, the seat stays empty till after the election.
So after Bucks’s resignation, the Home breakdown appears like this: 431 members. 218 Republicans. 213 Democrats. A margin of 5 seats. However the GOP can solely lose two votes on any given concern with out help from the opposite facet. After Gallagher leaves, the breakdown slips to 430 members with 217 Republicans and 213 Democrats. That’s a four-seat margin. However the GOP can solely lose one vote then. By rule, tie votes lose within the Home.
And issues develop even darker for Republicans.
There’s a particular election in western New York in late April to switch former Rep. Brian Higgins, D-N.Y., who additionally retired early. Democrats are anticipated to carry that seat. So, for our functions, rating that as a internet pickup of 1 for the Democrats. Which means the Home would have 431 members. However 216 Republicans and 214 Democrats.
Republicans might safe just a little respiration room after a Could 21 particular election runoff in California to succeed McCarthy. That seat possible goes to the GOP.
However FOX is informed different Republicans are fed up and will depart earlier than the top of the Congress. Some are simply exasperated. Others don’t wish to be right here for the presidential election and face reporters peppering them within the halls with questions concerning the newest feedback from former President Trump. Others have had it with their colleagues.
The Senate flipped management from Republicans to Democrats halfway via the 107th Congress in 2001. In truth, there was one bizarre anomaly within the Senate within the Nineteen Fifties. Democrats had extra seats than Republicans at one level – however remained within the “minority.” However the Home has by no means modified management mid-Congress.
“Home Republicans do should be fearful about holding their majority,” stated Darrell West of the Brookings Establishment. “It might be terribly uncommon. I imply, stuff like that simply doesn’t occur. Nevertheless it reveals the extent of the dysfunction – the divisions inside the Republican Home caucus.”
That is why Home Democratic Caucus Chairman Pete Aguilar, D-Calif., characterised Home Minority Chief Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y., because the “chief of the Congress” final week.
“His title will not be Speaker of the Home,” stated Aguilar. “However he has the votes. He has the arrogance of a good portion of members.”
However, if a number of extra Republicans step down? At this fee, Jeffries could possibly be Speaker of the Home earlier than it’s throughout.
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Someplace, you may hear the crack of the bat. Is the Republican majority going, going, gone?
Unpack your binoculars. Comply with the flight of the ball. And watch what unfolds over the subsequent couple of months.
Going, going, gone: May the Republicans’ slim Home majority slip away earlier than November?
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