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US President Joe Biden and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi participate in a bilateral meeting at the Oval Office of the White House on September 24, 2021 in Washington, DC.
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Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi will meet President Joe Biden at his premiere on Thursday state visit to the US
High on the agenda are strengthening defense ties, technology partnerships and India’s role in the Indo-Pacific.
Ties between India and the US are at a turning point and the relationship between the two nations has improved over the past decade, said Harsh V. Pant, vice president of studies and foreign policy at Observer Research Foundation, a Delhi-based research institute. thinktank.
“This is a very important visit, it is as much about India reaching out to the US as it is about the US reaching out to India,” Pant said.
Biden has hosted only two state visits during his presidency, the first with his French counterpart Emmanuel Macron in December 2022, and the second with South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol in April.
“This visit symbolizes the unwavering commitment to deepening ties and signifies the immense potential for both countries to work together amid global challenges,” said Farwa Aamer, director of South Asian initiatives at the Asia Society Policy Institute .
“For many in India and the US, the visit is a testament to the promise and high hopes for the future of US-India cooperation – one of shared prosperity,” Aamer said.
The US views India as a partner they can rely on, but their partnership will be very different as India is not an ally, Pant told CNBC.
“The US is not used to having partners who are not allies, but is willing to look at its partnership with India differently – one that is relatively independent, but will also help US priorities,” he said in a telephone interview.
Strengthening defense ties
India and Russia have long had a steadfast relationship, with India relying heavily on the Kremlin for oil and military weapons.
The South Asian country is the world’s largest buyer of Russian weapons, accounting for about 20% of Russia’s current order. Reuters reported that.
“India has been too dependent on one country and that’s not good, and although dependency has dropped from 80% in the 1990s to about 65% now, dependency is still huge,” Pant said.
However, due to the war in Ukraine, Russia has failed to send critical defense weapons it promised India, prompting the Indian military to look to others such as the US for supplies.
Russian President Vladimir Putin with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi on the sidelines of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization Leaders’ Summit in Samarkand on September 16, 2022.
Alexandr Demynchuk | Afp | Getty Images
Still, analysts are optimistic that the meeting between Biden and Modi could lead to more arms deals.
India has long been interested in buying SeaGuardian drones from the US, but the hoped-for deal that could be worth between $2bn and $3bn has long been hampered by “bureaucratic hurdles”. Reuters reported that.
The deal could still be on the table.
“India’s defense ministry has reportedly approved the purchase, so it seems likely. The US wants this to go ahead,” Manjari Miller, senior fellow for India, Pakistan and South Asia at the Council on Foreign Relations, told CNBC.
“It would be important for the partnership – only a few military allies and NATO countries have this drone, and the US is picky about who it sells US weapons and technology to.”
She stressed that now is an important time to complete the deal as it will “bring India closer to the US defense trajectory and one step away from India’s reliance on Russian arms and equipment.”
India is undermining its strategic options by thinking it can continue to rely on Russia, Lisa Curtis, senior fellow and director of the Indo-Pacific Security Program at the Center for a New American Security.
“It wants to try to keep a wedge between Russia and China because it doesn’t want to think about the idea that Russia and China are both against it. Then you throw in Pakistan and it looks really awful from an Indian perspective,” Curtis said. told the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
The drones will also bolster the “intelligence surveillance reconnaissance capabilities” of the Indian armed forces that will help the country secure their borders with China and Pakistan, said Karthik Nachiappan, a research fellow at the Institute of South Asian Studies at the National University. or Singapore. .
Tensions between India and China over the disputed border in the Himalayan region have been going on since the 1950s, with no end in sight. Twenty Indian soldiers were killed in hand-to-hand combat with Chinese forces in June 2020, followed by another clash in December 2022.
But India wants to “go beyond a buyer-seller relationship” with the US, Pant said, adding that India is working on a “co-production and co-development relationship” with the US so that it can build its own domestic manufacturing defense base. .
Private sectors in the US could also make larger investments in India, with the two countries collaborating on jet engine production, Pant said.
“There is a change in the way the US looks at India, and defense will benefit from that. India will certainly try to reduce its dependence on Russia, and that will be quite an extreme move,” he added.
Without mentioning China, the That’s what the White House said in May the visit will “reinforce our two countries’ shared commitment to a free, open, prosperous and secure Indo-Pacific and our shared determination to enhance our strategic technology partnership, including in defense, clean energy and space.”
“Both the United States and India share the goal of not having an Asia dominated by China, or an Indo-Pacific region subject to Chinese coercion and assertiveness,” Ashley Tellis, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment, said in a Q&A. report.
Energy: dependence on Russian oil
“India has become very close to the West over the past five to 10 years, but it understands that it cannot simply break away from Russia,” said Amit Ranjan, a research fellow at the NUS Institute of South Asian Studies.
“Russia is an old friend of India, and India understands the importance of the relationship…Oil is an important part of that relationship,” Ranjan said.
Technology: Diversification from China
Technology partnerships will also be high on Modi’s agenda.
“I think the technology issues have become so critical as we see China making progress and hear about China’s progress with AI,” said Curtis.
“Seeing how much China is moving forward, the US now understands the importance of really working closely with India and trying to capitalize on the strengths on both sides,” she said.
“There are so many ways the two sides can benefit from this increased technology collaboration – not to mention the advancements that have been made in semiconductors. This has been a real area of focus for India and the United States, and I see that will only grow as we move into the future,” Curtis added.
There will also be a flurry of business meetings with technology leaders.
Modi is also expected to meet other CEOs including Apple’s Tim Cook, Google’s Sundar Pichai, Microsoft’s Satya Nadella and FedEx’s Raj Subramaniam at the White House state dinner on Thursday.
The growing partnership between India and the US also gives room for the two nations to adopt a “China plus one” strategy and push more tech companies to set up operations in India, analysts told CNBC.
The US-India Critical and Emerging Technology Initiative was announced in May last year. The iCET initiative aims to “elevate and expand the technology partnership and defense-industrial cooperation of the two countries,” the White House said in January.
Pant said it points to the willingness of the two countries to work together – both on research and development and what both governments can do together.
In the past six months, more US tech companies have set their sights on India.
People are seen at the Apple Store after its launch at Jio World Drive mall in Mumbai, India, on April 18, 2023.
Ashish Vaishnav | SOPA Images | Rocket | Getty Images
Apple opened two brick-and-mortar stores in Delhi and Mumbai in April and has plans to expand further in India. Based in Taiwan Foxconn — one of Apple’s largest suppliers — broke ground for a new $500 million factory in Telangana.
While Amazon Web Services, the company’s cloud computing unit, announced in May that it would invest $13 billion in India by the end of this decade. Reuters reported that.
“India and the US are building a relationship that can respond to the challenges of the 21st century, and China will be watching very closely,” Pant said. “The two countries have already identified their strengths and are setting out a very ambitious agenda to that end.”
— CNBC’s Seema Mody contributed to this report.
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