Global Courant 2023-04-29 10:54:18
Someone recently asked me a few questions about Japan’s national defense. As expected, I gave my opinion on each of them. Meanwhile, others may be just as curious about the current status of Japan’s preparedness.
If so, here’s what you need to know:
1. What motivates Japan and Prime Minister Fumio Kishida to strengthen Japan’s defenses and take a more active role in the region in terms of security?
The People’s Republic of China. Xi Jinping succeeded in getting Japan to take its national defense serious. That’s something the Americans have never had much success with.
Some Japanese were concerned about the military threat from the PRC in the early 2000s, if not earlier. And the then Prime Minister Shinzo Abe‘s efforts in 2006-2007 to establish the Quad between the major democracies: Japan, Australiathe United StatesAnd India due to concerns about Chinese expansionism.
Japan had been quietly building up its defenses all along. For example, by the end of the 2000s, the Japanese “anti-submarine helicopter carriers” – aircraft carriers with a small modification – were already available and the next generation was already under construction. Ground Self Defense Force (GSDF) plans to release the Nansei Shoto were also developed around this time.
The US Army’s “HIMARS” highly mobile rocket artillery system (left) first deployed to the Nansei Islands, and the Ground Self-Defense Force’s “Type 12 surface-to-ship guided missile”. August 31, 2022 GSDF Camp Amami. Image: Sankei by Toyohiro Ichioka
2. What major developments caught Tokyo’s attention?
Chinese fishing fleet along with the China Coast Guard And Chinese navy striving for that of Japan Senkaku Islands around 2012, Tokyo really caught the attention. It made for a faster, if measured, defense build.
The build-up was probably too measured. The Chinese have not stopped around Japan’s southern islands, and the Japanese Self-Defense Forces (JSDF) and the Japanese Coast Guard are congested to the south. That’s not surprising considering that from 2016-2020 the People’s Liberation Army The navy launched about as many ships as the entire Japanese naval fleet.
3. Are the announced changes in defense spending realistic?
In recent years, Japan’s moves to bolster defenses have seemed more pronounced. People’s attention was mainly attracted by kishidaannounced a doubling of defense spending. The Japanese are moving faster now. And Japanese defense guidelines no longer make sense. They now describe China as the problem to be addressed.
Japan generally acknowledges that there is no deal to be made with the People’s Republic of China. And Japan is forced to protect itself.
4. Would the North Korean threat have caused Japan to strengthen its defenses to this extent?
I doubt it. That would have been mainly a matter of strengthening missile defenses and perhaps acquiring some long-range missiles – the so-calledcounterattack weapons” to hit targets North Korea.
Japan’s move to bolster its defenses is also partly motivated by fears that the United States will not defend Japan if it doesn’t do enough. Indeed, Tokyo has always been concerned about Japan’s ‘going over’. In other words, the Americans lose interest in Japan and even reach an agreement with China that leaves Japan to its fate.
A Japanese Coast Guard patrol vessel sails alongside a China Coast Guard vessel to prevent it from approaching a research vessel. January 30, off the Senkaku Islands in Ishigaki City, Okinawa Prefecture. Image: Sankei by Hiroshi Kawase
5. Was it difficult for Japan to shake off its post-war pacifism?
Not really. Japanese pacifism has always been a strange thing and part of it is just moral preening. For all its shortcomings, the JSDF has always been a real army. In fact, pacifist Japan has always insisted that the Americans wipe out anyone who threatens Japan. That’s a bit of pacifism. With China breathing fire, nobody talks much about pacifism these days.
6. Is Japan Improving Its Army Too Late?
Maybe maybe not. Tokyo should have moved faster at least a decade ago. But this is always the case when free nations wake up and realize they are in danger from aggressive, dictatorial regimes. It’s always later than it should be.
However, Japan is not starting from scratch. It has the makings of a power that can pack some punch. But because of the limitations placed on JSDF development – mostly self-imposed – it is a somewhat misshapen and underpowered force.
The Maritime Self Defense Force (MSDF), for example, would need to be twice as large to handle current missions. The Air Self Defense Force (ASDF) is not well integrated with the other services and seems to prefer flying around at 9 kilometers in search of a dogfight. It’s also smaller than it should be.
GSDF has made good progress over the past decade in becoming a more mobile force. This is evident from the Amphibious Rapid Deployment Brigade. And it is even capable of working with MSDF more than one can imagine. But GSDF must overcome decades of focus on defense Hokkaido of a Russian invasion – it never came.
Amphibious Rapid Deployment Brigade dismounts amphibious vehicle AAV7 in the Ground Self-Defense Force “Fuji Firepower Exercise” on May 28, Higashifuji Exercise Area in Gotemba City, Shizuoka Prefecture. Image: Sankei by Haruna Naka
7. What are the next challenges?
JSDF needs to come up with joint (or combined) operations so that the three JSDF services can work together. Otherwise it’s not even the sum of its parts. There is a movement underway to get this capability in place, but it will take a few years. And even then, mastering joint/combined operations takes time and practice
Recruitment is another issue. JSDF has been missing its targets by 20% for years. This is not due to the shrinking population. It’s more because service in the JSDF has never been a respected profession – because governments and media and academia have done their best to humiliate and handcuff the JSDF for decades.
Also, service in the JSDF is poorly compensated, living conditions are almost slum-like and nothing like the benefits of serving in the US armed forces.
Announcing that Japan will double defense spending was the easy part. Spending on the right things is the hardest part. Japan really doesn’t know what it needs – capacity or hardware to fight a war.
Hopefully the US will quietly send some good war planners to Japan, put them in touch with the right people and let them work out what is needed (and whatever the US needs from Japan). wasted effort and money.
Some other shortcomings that need to be addressed, and quickly, are the practical issues of logistics, war supplies, casualty handling and replacement, mobilization processes, civil defense, and the like. It’s hard to fight a war if these aren’t in place, and in Japan’s case, they’re not done yet.
8. What about cooperation with US troops?
The ability to operate with US forces also requires a lot of work. The two navies can work together quite well, but otherwise work is needed. You would have no idea that the Americans and the Japanese have had a defense relationship for over 60 years, given the shortcomings of the two armies in this regard.
Until you see a joint operational headquarters in Japan where US and Japanese forces conduct peacetime and wartime activities necessary to defend Japan, you should be skeptical of officials saying the military alliance is in combat phase.
Training together: JASDF F15 fighter (three in foreground) and US military F16 fighter on June 7, 2022. Image: Department of Defense Joint Staff Office
9. Would Japan play an active role in a US-China conflict over Taiwan?
It could have been better. If Japan does not participate, the alliance between the US and Japan will collapse in the short term. Ironically, but not surprisingly, I heard a Japanese scholar say not long ago that if the US did not fight to defend Taiwan the Japanese would leave the alliance.
No mention of Japan having played its part in the fighting. Indeed, he pointed out that it would be difficult from a legal point of view and it would also disrupt Japan’s economic ties with the PRC. Fortunately, most Japanese are more established than this guy.
Japan is well aware that “the defense of Taiwan is the defense of Japan”. JSDF officers said this years ago, but now it is widely understood. Japan will watch what the Americans are going to do and then figure out what Japan is going to do. That’s not unusual.
I expect Japan to deploy the JSDF – especially the Navy and Air Force – and support the Americans, and some “shoot”. The Ground Self Defense Force will be active in Nansei Shoto with surveillance and long-range weapons, and perhaps even US Marines.
10. Is Japan doing enough to prepare for disaster in Taiwan?
Unfortunately, it doesn’t appear that Japan is making the necessary planning for one Unforeseen circumstances in Taiwan. And it is unclear whether the Japanese and the Americans also have a joint plan. Maybe the idea is to “wing” it if something happens. That’s a good way to lose.
By stepping back and taking stock, Japan has made a lot of progress. If you knew about Japan’s defense situation decades ago, it is almost unrecognizable today. But there is a lot to do and little time to do it.
This article was first published by JapanForward. Global Courant republishes it with permission.
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