Global Courant
The response of Russian officials and war bloggers to the cross-border raids in the Belgorod region exposes a “continued heightened anxiety” about the war in Ukraine, military analysts say.
In its daily analysis of the conflict, the Institute for the Study of War said there are some indications that the Kremlin is trying to use the raids to bolster the idea that the war is “existential” for Russia and Vladimir Putin and “gather domestic support for a protracted war”.
The American study said some Russian war bloggers have used the situation in Belgorod to criticize the leadership in Moscow. Others have “argued that the limited raids are a precursor to Ukraine’s counteroffensive operations,” he added.
The Institute for the Study of War said that former Russian officer Igor Girkin has argued that the increase in activity inside Russian territory is the result of Moscow’s forces “wasting reserves” in the fall.
Girkin “argued that these failures made Ukraine aware of Russia’s relative weaknesses and suggested that they encouraged Ukrainian forces to conduct operations inside Russia itself.”
He also said that the Kremlin is likely to respond to the alleged Ukrainian operations “too late, and that public support for the Russian leadership will be waning by then.”
“Other war bloggers argued that the raids in Belgorod Oblast are a Ukrainian attempt to divert Russian forces away from important sectors of the front,” ISW added.
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