Global Courant
More than 60 years ago, on August 4, 1964, the US claimed that North Vietnamese patrol boats had attacked the US naval destroyer Maddox in the Gulf of Tonkin. This incident led to the August 10 US Congress Resolution of the Gulf of Tonkin that became then-President Lyndon Johnson’s legal justification for deploying US troops to South Vietnam.
In other words, it led to the beginning of what would become open US involvement in the Vietnam Civil War.
We now know that no attack ever took place and that the fateful decisions that followed were based on naval intelligence agencies formed to suit Johnson’s political needs and preferences. He was looking for an excuse to take the US to war without a formal declaration from Congress.
That was then. This is now. But history tends to repeat itself, especially if relevant lessons are not learned.
Could recent developments pave the way for a similar excuse for the US military to take on someone else’s conflict, this time between the Philippines and China in the South China Sea? Such an incident, as before, could drag US allies Australia and South Korea into a wider battle.
A version of this scenario could develop at Second Thomas Shoal, where China Coast Guard vessels recently blocked a Philippine Coast Guard vessel approaching the shoal, ostensibly for an “on-site investigation”.
According to an international arbitration panel established under the auspices of the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea, the submerged shoal is part of the Philippines’ continental shelf and falls within the Exclusive Economic Zone (EEV). The Philippines therefore has exclusive sovereign rights to its resources.
Technically, no country can claim sovereignty over a submerged element. Yet the Philippines sees it as a sovereignty issue.
China also claims it as part of its historic claim to much of the South China Sea, which was rejected by the same panel. This dispute is thus rife with nationalism, and inaction can threaten the legitimacy of ruling governments.
The blame for the recent near-collision there between the coastguard vessels of the two nations is not as black and white as most Western media would like it to be.
Beijing said the incident was a premeditated provocation by Manila. Yes, the resources are owned by the Philippines and the Chinese vessel has violated international convention by blocking the path of the Philippine Coast Guard vessel. But the Philippines may have tried to provoke the incident.
The Philippine ships had broadcast their intention to enter Ayungin Shoal and warned the Chinese ships to “keep out of our passage”.
Manila knew from past experience that Beijing would react aggressively to its demonstration of its “property.” But it wanted to provoke a Chinese response to the group of international journalists it conveniently invited to its “sovereignty patrolas part of her campaign to publicize China’s depredations against China.
There were two Philippine Coast Guard ships. It is curious that the confrontation took place between the Chinese ship and the Philippine ship that did not carry the journalists so that they could observe without being in direct danger themselves. The journalists sensationalized the incident far and wide.
But what does this have to do with the US? It and the Philippines have a Mutual Defense Treaty (MDT) that requires each to formally consider coming to the aid of the other if attacked.
While the US State Department has lashed out at the meaning of “attack” in previous incidents, it has now challenged China:
“The United States stands with our Philippine allies in upholding the rules-based international maritime order and reaffirms that any armed attack in the Pacific Ocean, including the South China Sea, against Philippine armed forces, public vessels or aircraft, including those of the Coast Guard, would invoke U.S. mutual defense commitments under Article IV of the 1951 U.S.-Philippine Mutual Defense Treaty.
Furthermore, US Pacific Fleet Commander Admiral Samuel Paparo said the US is ready to assist the Philippines if China interferes with Manila’s efforts to resupply its troops on its stranded naval ship on the shoal.
The US spends more general warnings to China about such actions for some time. But any incident, including shining a laser on the bridge of a Philippine Coast Guard vessel, was apparently below the US interpretation of the threshold to trigger the MDT. In addition, there is room for maneuver in the questions for help.
MDT Article IV states that an armed attack against either side “shall be carried out in accordance with their constitutional procedures and any armed attack against either side shall be brought to the attention of the United Nations for immediate action. As soon as the United Nations has issued such orders, all hostile action between the signatories of this treaty and opposing parties shall be terminated.”
The decision-making process can therefore take a long time and military aid is not guaranteed.
But the US has seemingly raised the bar. It is now planning joint patrols this year is requested by the Philippines. The first may very well be near Second Thomas Shoal.
Now the US has put public pressure on itself to make good on its threat. Otherwise, it loses credibility and is considered a toothless tiger, all growling and not biting. This would be very dangerous and could cause China to miscalculate.
The situation is about to become a chicken game between the US and China, with the Philippines in the middle and perhaps even a facilitator. It could even provoke China to attack its ships. Either one flashes or they collide.
To try to contain the conflict, the US will likely use a Coast Guard vessel for a joint patrol, not their navy, which will be lurking like China’s.
Whether the clash intensifies and spreads depends on the wisdom of the leaders. In fact, I’m optimistic that one or both will pull out. But given the anti-China mood in Washington, an incident in the Gulf of Tonkin — real or fabricated — could prompt Congress to demand military action. Hold your hat.
An edited version of this article appeared in the South China Morning Mail.
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