India finds itself teetering on the brink of chaos, caught in the throes of a fierce ideological battle fueled by the aggressive ascent of Hindutva. Since 2014, under Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s rule, the country has spiraled into a whirlwind of discord and division, challenging the very essence of its pluralistic identity. Each political maneuver and social upheaval raises the unsettling question: can India withstand the pressures that threaten to pull it apart, or is it destined to fracture under the weight of its own complexities?
Hindutva, propagated by Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS), seeks to establish Hindu culture as the core of Indian national identity. Modi’s tenure has intensified the exclusion of religious and cultural minorities, embedding religious nationalism within governance. The U.S. Commission on International Religious Freedom (USCIRF) has repeatedly recommended India as a “Country of Particular Concern” due to its “systematic, ongoing, and egregious” violations against religious minorities. The USCIRF report emphasizes the use of draconian laws, such as the Unlawful Activities Prevention Act (UAPA) and anti- conversion laws, to suppress minorities, stifling religious freedom and stoking sectarian tensions.
Moreover, the economic landscape mirrors these social divisions. The income inequality in India is widening, with the top 10% of the population holding 77% of the total national wealth, according to Oxfam. This stark disparity not only fuels resentment among the marginalized but also exacerbates the sense of exclusion felt by religious minorities, complicating the socio-political fabric of the nation.
The repression of minority voices has extended beyond India’s borders, marking a new era of transnational repression. The assassination of Sikh activist Hardeep Singh Nijjar in Canada and threats against Sikh activists in the United States exemplify India’s increasing efforts to silence dissenting voices abroad. According to USCIRF, these incidents represent a severe escalation of India’s efforts to control narratives and silence critics of its human rights policies on the international stage. Such actions have drawn harsh international criticism, with USCIRF labeling them as “transnational repression”, a phenomenon that challenges India’s democratic credentials and strains its diplomatic relations with Western allies.
These incidents have strained India’s relations with Canada, the U.S., and the United Kingdom, countries where significant populations of Indian minorities reside. In October 2024, Canada expelled six Indian diplomats, citing significant evidence gathered by the RCMP linking these individuals to activities threatening public safety. Canadian Affairs Minister Melanie Joly stated that the evidence was “ample, clear, and concerning the Nijjar case. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau further revealed that Indian government agents were involved in coercive behavior targeting the South Canadian community, using clandestine information-gathering techniques.
India’s internal and external territorial disputes further amplify its fragmentation risks. The 2019 revocation of Article 370 and 35 A, which removed Jammu and Kashmir’s autonomous status, has been a significant source of tension with Pakistan, leading to intensified insurgency and human rights abuses in the region.
Besides Kashmir, India faces demographic pressures as it has surpassed China as the world’s most populous country in 2022. India is the world’s most populated country, with over 1.5 billion people. China is the second most populated country, with a population of just over 1.4 billion. This rapid population growth places immense strain on resources, infrastructure, and social services, complicating the government’s ability to manage regional conflicts effectively. Furthermore, high youth unemployment-a direct consequence of this demographic shift-poses a significant threat to social stability. According to the latest data from the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE), an independent think tank, the unemployment rate in India stood at 7.8 percent in September 2024. With around 40 percent of India’s 1.4 billion citizens under 25 years old and with millions of India’s youths entering the job market every year, clear skill mismatches and a lack of suitable job creation for young Indians remain the biggest labour-market challenges.
The South, characterized by distinct linguistic and cultural traditions, has increasingly voiced frustration over policies that favor the Hindi-speaking Northern regions. In contrast to the North’s populist narrative, the South has consistently resisted Hindutva ideology. In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP did not win any seats in Kerala and Tamil Nadu, securing only 1 out of 25 seats in Andhra Pradesh and 4 out of 177 in Telangana. This highlights the South’s stronger commitment to liberal and secular values compared to the North.
India’s Digital India initiative, initially introduced to modernize the country’s economy, has evolved into a powerful tool for curbing dissent and controlling public discourse. According to the Internet Freedom Foundation, an Indian digital-rights group, the flaws in this initiative render it “open for misuse through subjective and selective application”. Early 2024 witnessed over 130 documented cases of censorship against journalists and political activists. The BJP’s IT cell has been reported to engage in misinformation campaigns, shaping narratives that bolster Modi’s image while targeting critics. According to a report in the Deccan Herald, there are now at least 5 million WhatsApp groups operated by the BJP in India.
In this environment, criticism of government policies or Hindutva ideology often leads to online harassment, legal persecution, and, in some cases, physical threats. In a large survey last year by CSDS-Lokniti, a pollster, 65% 10 of respondents said they were very or somewhat scared of posting their political or social opinions online for fear of legal action. The limitations on free speech not only violate democratic principles but also contribute to an environment of fear and self-censorship that stifles meaningful political discourse and dissent.
India’s internal unity appears increasingly vulnerable as it approaches its centenary. The unchecked rise of Hindutva, regional autonomy demands, authoritarian control of information, and economic disparities point to an uncertain future. If India is to avoid fragmentation, it must confront these challenges directly. Without meaningful reforms, however, the risk of fragmentation becomes more than a theoretical concern.
