Global Courant
Libya’s warring factions have agreed legal action to hold long-delayed elections in the troubled North African country, but controversial issues blocking the democratic process remain unresolved, according to observers and a copy of the agreement seen by Al Jazeera.
A 6+6 committee made up of Libya’s two rival legislative bodies – the Tobruk-based House of Representatives (HoR) and the Tripoli-based Supreme Council of State (HCS) – agreed June 6 on draft bills for presidential and parliamentary elections. forward in the country’s current political crisis.
Libya has been fraught with conflict for more than a decade since the removal of former strongman Muammar Gaddafi during the Arab Spring in 2011 and rival factions began vying for power. By 2015, the two legislative bodies had been formed and the battle for Libya’s rule and wealth has continued ever since.
While applauding the progress, UN envoy Abdoulaye Bathily warned the Security Council on Monday that “key issues remain highly contentious”, blocking the way to “a final settlement” and harboring the potential to trigger a new crisis in the divided country. cause.
He added that he intended to intensify negotiations to address “serious loopholes and technical flaws” in the draft bills and make them “feasible” and effective in regulating “successful elections”.
Former Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi arrives in Rome, Italy, on August 29, 2010, for an official visit for talks with Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi (Ernesto Ruscio/Getty Images)
The current political crisis stems from the failure to hold elections on December 24, 2021 and the refusal of Prime Minister Abdul Hamid Dbeibah – who led the Transitional Government of National Unity (GNU) in the capital Tripoli – to step down.
In response, the country’s eastern parliament has appointed a rival prime minister, Fathi Bashagha, who has been trying for months to install his government in Tripoli.
Observers told Al Jazeera that many of the moot issues that hijacked the democratic process in 2021 remain unresolved.
“Bathily rightly notes concerns about an electoral program that is not accepted across the political spectrum and risks further divisive,” Tim Eaton, a senior research fellow at Chatham House, told Al Jazeera.
“Obviously his calculation is that he needs to get a much broader agreement on what happens next and the challenge is to do that (and) move forward,” Eaton said.
Eligibility for presidential candidate
One of the major obstacles to the democratic process is agreeing on eligibility criteria for presidential candidates.
Azzedine Guerbi, a member of the Tobruk-based House of Representatives (HoR) who attended pre-deal talks in Morocco’s Bouznika, told Al Jazeera the two sides agreed that candidates with military ties should automatically resign their posts. .
Abdul Hamid Dbeibah at the graduation of an army cadet in Tripoli on February 8, 2022 (Yousef Murad/AP Photo)
A copy of the text obtained by Al Jazeera states that once a candidacy has been accepted, the presidential candidate is considered “disqualified by operation of law from his profession or position”.
However, no additional provisions have been made to ensure that a candidate does not resume office once the election process has been completed.
Jalel Harchaoui, an expert on Libya and an associate fellow at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), told Al Jazeera that failing to address the issue carries clear dangers.
“If you lose, you can go back to military service and mobilize a force to go after the winner,” Harchaoui said. “This shouldn’t be possible.”
Similarly, the draft law requires dual nationals to provide a “certificate certified by the embassy of the granting country proving the submission of final renunciation of citizenship of (the second) country”, but does not specify any mechanisms for verifying compliance.
According to Eaton at Chatham House, the debate over the eligibility criteria for the presidential election has become shorthand for the engagement of Khalifa Haftar, the commander of the Tobruk-based Libyan National Army (LNA), who also holds US citizenship.
Fathi Bashagha in Tobruk, Libya on March 2, 2022 (Handout via Reuters)
“The UN previously believed that an agreement could be reached on this issue, so I think the question is whether that agreement is being held back to avoid a political process or whether it is a real bone of contention that cannot be navigated .” said Eaton.
New caretaker government
One of the provisions that Bathily raised as a concern was the requirement to form a new government prior to the election.
According to Harchaoui, Bathily “knows that if a brand new government comes along, that government will do everything it can to make the elections fail and stay in power as long as possible.”
In addition, the definition of a “new” government was still up for debate. “If Abdul Hamid Dbeibah rearranges his ministries and makes a major change, will it be a new government even if he remains prime minister?” Harchaoui said.
Dbeibah’s rivals, including HoR speaker Aguila Saleh and the Egyptian government, claim he should leave the post.
Eaton said the push to formulate an interim government again raised the question of whether the issue hid the existing elites’ “unwillingness to create a new process that could lead to their replacement”.
Khalifa Haftar in Athens for talks with the Greek Foreign Minister on January 17, 2020 (Aris Messinis/AFP)
“Some of their arguments for removing the (government of national unity (GNU)) from its privileged position are justified, but if they form an interim government, we will probably see the talk of elections die down,” he said. analyst. added.
Second round voting
The “link between presidential and parliamentary elections” was identified by the UN envoy as potentially problematic.
According to Harchaoui, the criteria for whether or not to hold a second round of voting were very vague. “There are still mechanisms in place to force a second round, even if a first-round candidate wins by an absolute majority,” he said.
In addition, the provision of the bills that canceled parliamentary elections if the first round of presidential elections was not held or completed was also fraught with risks.
A woman protests the postponement of the scheduled December 24 presidential election in Benghazi on December 24, 2021 (Esam Omran Al-Fetori/Reuters)
Having a parliamentary vote at the same time as the second round of presidential elections exposes the legislative vote to the possibility of being hijacked by presidential candidates dissatisfied with their first-round performance, the analyst said.
Bathily warned that those moot issues were likely to drive the election process to a dead end, as happened in 2021, “resulting in further polarization and even destabilization of the country”.
Libya has “once again reached a critical stage,” he said.
“Successful elections require not only a legal framework, but also a political agreement that ensures the buy-in and inclusion of all key stakeholders.”
