Global Courant
As Russia’s invasion of Ukraine continues with no end in sight, NATO’s much-celebrated unity faces new tensions as leaders gather this week for their annual summit in Vilnius, Lithuania.
The world’s largest security alliance is struggling to reach an agreement on Sweden’s admission as its 32nd member. Member States’ military spending is falling short of long-standing targets. The inability to compromise on who should become NATO’s next leader forced an extension of the current Secretary General’s term by an additional year.
Perhaps the hardest questions are how to integrate Ukraine into NATO. Some maintain that Ukraine would fulfill a promise made years ago that would be a necessary step to deter Russian aggression in Eastern Europe. Others fear it would be seen as a provocation that could lead to even greater conflict.
“I don’t think it’s ready for NATO membership,” President Joe Biden told CNN in an interview that aired Sunday. He said joining NATO requires countries to “meet all qualifications, from democratization to a whole range of other issues”.
He said the United States should provide long-term security assistance to Ukraine – “the ability to defend itself” – just as it did to Israel.
Read more about Russia’s war against Ukraine:
Bickering among friends is not uncommon, and the current list of disputes pales in comparison to past fears that Donald Trump would turn his back on the alliance during his presidency. But the current challenges come at a time when Biden and his counterparts are heavily invested in demonstrating harmony among members.
“Every gap, every lack of solidarity offers an opportunity for those who would oppose the alliance,” said Douglas Lute, US ambassador to NATO under President Barack Obama.
Russian President Vladimir Putin likes to exploit divisions as he struggles to gain ground in Ukraine and faces political challenges at home, including the aftermath of a brief uprising by the Wagner mercenary group.
“You don’t want to present openings,” Lute said. “You don’t want to show any gaps or seams.”
By some measures, the war in Ukraine has revived NATO, which had been established at the start of the Cold War as a bulwark against Moscow. NATO members poured military equipment into Ukraine to aid in the counter-offensive, and Finland ended a history of non-alignment to become the 31st NATO member.
“I think it’s appropriate to look at all the success,” Republican Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky told The Associated Press. “So I think the invasion has strengthened NATO – the exact opposite of what Putin expected.”
He noted Germany’s shift to a more robust defense policy and an increase in military spending in other countries.
The latest test of NATO solidarity came Friday with what Biden said was a “tough decision” to supply cluster munitions to Ukraine. More than two-thirds of alliance members have banned the weapon because it has a track record of causing high civilian casualties. The US, Russia and Ukraine are not among the more than 120 countries that have not signed a treaty banning the use of the bombs.
As for Ukraine’s possible entry into NATO, the alliance said in 2008 that Kiev would eventually join. Since then, little action has been taken to achieve that goal. Putin occupied parts of Ukraine in 2014 and then attempted to conquer the capital with his invasion in 2022.
“A gray zone is a green light for Putin,” said Daniel Fried, a former US ambassador to Poland who is now a distinguished fellow at the Atlantic Council.
The US and Germany are insisting that the focus should be on supplying arms and ammunition to Ukraine, rather than taking the more provocative step of issuing a formal invitation to join NATO. Countries on NATO’s eastern flank — Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland — want more certainty about future membership.
The President of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, also insists on this. During a visit to the Czech Republic on Thursday, he said the “ideal” outcome of the Vilnius summit would be an invitation for his country to join the alliance.
NATO could decide to improve its relationship with Ukraine, setting up a so-called NATO-Ukraine Council and giving Kiev a seat at the table for consultation.
Also in the spotlight in Vilnius will be Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the main obstacle to Sweden’s attempts to join NATO along with neighboring Finland.
Erdogan accuses Sweden of being too lenient towards anti-Islam demonstrations and militant Kurdish groups that have waged a long uprising in Turkey.
Sweden recently amended its anti-terrorism legislation and lifted an arms embargo against Turkey. But a man burned a Quran outside a mosque in Stockholm last week, and Erdogan signaled that this would pose another hurdle. He equated “those who allowed the crime” to those who committed it.
Turkey and the US are also deadlocked over sales of F-16 fighter jets. Erdogan wants the upgraded planes, but Biden says Sweden’s NATO membership should be handled first.
It is not the first time that Erdogan has tried to use a NATO summit for Turkish gain. In 2009, he opposed the nomination of Anders Fogh Rasmussen as Secretary General, but agreed to the move after securing some senior positions for Turkish officials in the alliance.
Max Bergmann, a former State Department official who directs the Europe program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said there is growing frustration among allies against Erdogan, building on concerns about his ties to Putin, democratic backsliding and evasion of sanctions.
“They tried to play nice,” Bergmann said. “The question is whether it’s time to become much more confrontational.”
Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orban is also delaying his country’s approval of Swedish membership. In response, Idaho Senator Jim Risch, the top Republican on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, blocks a $735 million U.S. arms sale to Hungary.
“We don’t want members who aren’t interested in doing everything possible to strengthen the alliance rather than pursuing their own or individual interests,” Risch said. “I’m just tired of it.”
But he rejected the idea that these disagreements are a sign of weakness within NATO.
“Things like this always happen in an alliance,” he said. “The fact that we have been able to deal with them and will continue to do so proves that this is the most successful and strongest military alliance in the history of the world.”
At least one potentially difficult issue is not on the agenda of the summit. Rather than seek consensus on a new NATO leader, members agreed to extend the term of office of Jens Stoltenberg, who has held the position since 2014, by one year. It is his fourth overtime.
Most members wanted a woman to be the next Secretary General, and Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen was considered a favourite. But Poland insisted on a candidate from the Baltic states because there had already been two Scandinavian secretaries-general in a row. (Stoltenberg was a Norwegian prime minister and Rasmussen was a Danish prime minister.)
Others are skeptical of accepting a candidate from the Baltic countries, whose leaders are more provocative in their approach to Russia, including supporting Ukraine’s desire to join NATO soon.
Differences of opinion loom over NATO’s updated plans to counter any possible Russian invasion of Allied territory. It’s the biggest revision since the Cold War, and Skip Davis, a former NATO official who is now a senior fellow at the Center for European Policy Analysis, said it could involve “a lot of arm wrestling and card dealing.”
“That is an issue that will cause tension and disagreement, and that is not what the Vilnius summit is about,” he said.
