Global Courant 2023-05-04 15:01:58
In April, the sale of foreign exchange picked up, driven by the agricultural dollar, but it was not enough to reverse the situation.
The drought wreaked havoc on grain production and the first blows began, having a full impact on the Central Bank’s reserves: almost US$ 6,000 million less currency in the first quarter and estimates that in 2023 the losses will exceed US$ 18,000 million .
Agro-export companies reported that in April they entered US$2,416 million (US$1,605 million of the agricultural dollar). This is an increase of 96% compared to last March, according to data from the Chamber of the Oil Industry and the Center for Grain Exporters (Ciara-CEC). But if it is compared with the same month of 2022, when US$3,171.7 million had entered, there is a 24% drop.
And so far this year, from January to April, accumulated settlements reached US$5,218 million against US$11,097.8 million in the same cycle, which marks a decrease of 53% (US$5,879 million). .
“It was highly expected due to the very poor wheat harvest, due to the delay in planting the coarse crop and what is coming in from the harvest, it was very lean. And on the other hand, there are lower price levels compared to the first semester of last year, which were driven from February 2022 by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine,” said David Miazzo, economist at the Fundación Agropecuaria para el Desarrollo de Argentina (FADA).
The drought reduced production, first, of wheat to 11.5 million tons, half of what had been harvested in the 2021-22 cycle. And now it has had an impact on soybean production, where an estimated 23 million tons is estimated, 45% less than what was obtained in the previous season, and on corn, which is projected to harvest 32 million tons, 37% below what was obtained the previous cycle.
In this way, among the three main crops produced in Argentina, total grain production amounts to an estimated 66.5 million tons, a drop of almost 45% between campaigns. This is equivalent to no less than 50 million tons.
There are 50 million fewer tons between soybeans, corn and wheat. Photo: JUAN JOSE GARCIA.
According to Ciara in her latest report, the main agro-export sector affected by the drought was the soybean processing industry. In the first quarter of 2023, the crushing of the oilseed fell by 2,547 million tons with respect to 2022 and registered a drop of 3,927 million tons with respect to 2021, being the worst crushing record of the last 20 years for the period.
And they calculate that by 2023 it will be located at 27 million tons, which represents a decrease of 11 million tons (30%) compared to 2022 when it reached 38,459 million. Thus, the volume of processed soybeans estimated for 2023 by the cluster that generates the greatest amount of foreign currency for Argentina becomes the lowest in 18 years.
Therefore, in this context, the drop in foreign exchange income calculated by Ciara is US$ 18,777 million.
The drought will also impact truckers. From the beginning of the year to March, just 161,159 units arrived, 68% less than the same period of the previous year and 25% less than the previous minimum of 2014. 808,000 trucks of wheat, corn and soybeans arrived at the ports and plants in the region, 60% less than in 2022 and the average of the last decade.
soybean dollar
The traded soybean tons in terms of new contracts and fixings accumulate 2,332,150 tons, locating 78% and 44% below what was registered during the first three weeks of the soybean dollar 1 and 2 respectively. And US$ 1,667 million have been liquidated so far.
