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A brand new ballot in a key Senate battle that will determine if the GOP wins again the chamber’s majority signifies the Republican challenger with the sting over the Democratic incumbent.
Republican Senate nominee Tim Sheehy holds a six-point 51%-45% benefit over Democratic Sen. Jon Tester of Montana in an AARP survey launched on Thursday in a two-way match up.
And the ballot suggests Sheehy main Tester 49%-41% in a multi-candidate subject, with Libertarian Celebration candidate Sid Daoud at 4% and Inexperienced Celebration candidate Michael Downey polling at 1%. 4 p.c are undecided.
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Tim Sheehy, founder and chief govt officer of Bridger Aerospace and US Republican Senate nominee for Montana, on the Bridger hangar in Bozeman, Montana, on Thursday, Jan. 18, 2024. Photographer: Louise Johns/Bloomberg through Getty Pictures (Louise Johns)
Sheehy, a former Navy SEAL and Purple Coronary heart recipient who served within the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan and who serves as CEO of Bridger Aerospace, a Montana-based aerial firefighting and wildfire surveillance companies firm, enjoys the backing of former President Trump, who headlined a rally in Montana final month. Trump carried red-state Montana by 16 factors over President Biden 4 years in the past.
The ballot signifies Trump forward of Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democrats’ 2024 nominee, by 15 factors.
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Sheehy additionally has a powerful ally in Sen. Steve Daines of Montana, the chair of the Senate GOP’s marketing campaign committee.
Tester is taken into account of essentially the most susceptible Senate Democrats working for re-election this 12 months, and Republicans are closely concentrating on the incumbent.
Sen. Jon Tester (D-MT) arrives for a Senate Appropriations Subcommittee on Homeland Safety listening to on the U.S. Capitol on April 10, 2024 in Washington. (Picture by Samuel Corum/Getty Pictures) (Samuel Corum)
The ballot’s launch highlights that “with Republicans accounting for 39% of doubtless voters and Democrats solely 24%, Tester might want to enhance his edge with Independents or acquire amongst Republicans to drag forward.”
However beating Tester, a Montana farmer and former state lawmaker who’s working for a fourth six-year time period within the Senate and has a historical past of successful powerful contests, is much from a simple process.
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Democrats management the Senate by a razor-thin 51-49 margin, and Republicans are taking a look at a positive election map this 12 months with Democrats defending 23 of the 34 seats up for grabs.
Sen. Jon Tester and Republican Montana Senate nomineeTim Sheehy. (Kevin Dietsch/Louise Johns)
A kind of seats is in West Virginia, a deep pink state that Trump carried by almost 40 factors in 2020. With average Democrat-turned-Unbiased Sen. Joe Manchin, a former governor, not in search of re-election, flipping the seat is almost a positive factor for the GOP.
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And in Ohio, which Trump comfortably carried 4 years in the past, Republicans are aiming to defeat Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown.
5 extra Democratic-held seats are up for grabs this 12 months are in essential presidential-election battleground states.
With Democrats attempting to guard their fragile Senate majority, former GOP Gov. Larry Hogan of blue-state Maryland’s late entry into the Senate race in February gave them an sudden headache in a state beforehand thought-about secure territory. Hogan left the governor’s workplace firstly of 2023 with very optimistic approval and favorable rankings.
The brand new AARP survey in Montana was carried out by the bipartisan polling group of Fabrizio Ward (R) & David Binder Analysis (D). The corporations interviewed 1,064 doubtless voters from August 25-29, with an general sampling error of plus or minus 3.5 share factors.
Get the most recent updates from the 2024 marketing campaign path, unique interviews and extra at our Fox Information Digital election hub.
Paul Steinhauser is a politics reporter primarily based in New Hampshire.
New ballot reveals Republican edging Dem incumbent in key battleground Senate race
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