Global Courant
MANILA – US Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s recent visit to China, the first in half a decade by a top US official, raised widespread hopes of a rapprochement between the world’s two leading and increasingly opposing powers.
Blinken’s visit was supported by many regional states, especially in Southeast Asia, which has become a battleground between the two superpowers in recent years, most heated in the disputed South China Sea.
But just over a week later, the South China Sea remains a tinderbox amid a lack of military-to-military diplomacy between the two superpowers. rising anti-Chinese sentiment in certain parts of Asia and beyond, and growing domestic skepticism in the US about the desirability of a Chinese-American détente.
Heading into an election year, US President Joe Biden is in the running no position to appear weak in its dealings with China, which is now firmly in the firing line on both sides, Democratic and Republican, of the US political divide.
Meanwhile, anti-Western hawks in China are demanding nothing less than a repeal of US sanctions, including those imposed on Defense Secretary Li Shangfu, as well as the withdrawal of Pentagon assets from the peripheries of Asian power to resume regular military communications.
There’s nothing to indicate that’s going to happen. Meanwhile, China was particularly irked by the visit of an American aircraft carrier to Da Nang Bay in Vietnam, the first such berth since the start of the Covid-19 pandemic.
China skeptics and nationalist elements in the Philippines sense a protracted confrontation between the two superpowers and are clamoring for a tougher policy line, including a proposal to take submitted their South China Sea disputes with Beijing to the United Nations General Assembly.
Indonesia, the current president of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, is leading the way in holding the first-ever joint ASEAN naval exercises in September, though Jakarta recently shifted the proposed area for the exercises beyond the waters claimed by Beijing under its dashed line.
Although he revived some semblance of diplomatic involvement, Blinken made no concessions to China during his trip. If something, top US officials have reiterated their commitment to continually opposing Beijing’s far-reaching naval claims and increasing naval assertiveness in adjacent waters.
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken met with Chinese President Xi Jinping in the Great Hall of the People for about 35 minutes. Image: Pool / Facebook
In response, ultra-nationalist elements in China have openly warned of a military confrontation unless the US radically changes its course of action in the region.
The Global Times, a state-backed nationalist mouthpiece, recently warned, “military tensions between China and the US have yet to see an immediate de-escalation following US Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s visit to China” as “both countries’ warships and fighter jets, including aircraft carriers, have been spotted in sensitive waters in Taiwan Straits and the South China Sea in recent days on China’s doorstep.
The aircraft carrier USS Ronald Reagan recently exercises held with French, Japanese and Canadian warships in the Philippine Sea and the East China Sea before crossing the South China Sea for a port call in Vietnam, only the third since the end of hostilities between the one-time adversaries.
“If the US really wants to manage accident risks or seek dialogue, it should stop saying one thing and doing another, and stop making military provocations around China,” Chinese experts told the Global Times. , referring specifically to the week of the USS Ronald Reagan. long broadcast to the South China Sea.
In the meantime, pro-Beijing analysts like Mark Valencia have warned of structural challenges to a sustainable Sino-American thaw, as “even if better military-to-military communications are restored, dangerous incidents will still occur…because they do not stem from misunderstandings and miscommunication, but are rooted in deeper differences regarding the international order and strategic interests.
Certainly, there is not much domestic support for a US-China détente in America. The Pew Research Center last poll shows historic levels of mistrust of China — as well as doubt in the Biden administration’s ability to deal effectively with the emerging superpower. More than four of the give Americans expressed an unfavorable view of China compared to just over 50% a decade earlier.
As many as two-thirds of Americans see China’s military power as onecritical threatover the next decade, while a significant majority expressed fears of a possible war over Taiwan. The poll even shows public skepticism about Sino-American cooperation replaces distrust of the beginning of the Cold War the Soviet Union.
Crucially, a whopping 65% of Americans were “not too confident” or “not confident at all” in the Biden administration’s ability to strike a favorable deal with China.
Heading into a harsh and polarizing re-election campaign in the coming months, with the next presidential poll due in November 2024, Biden is not in a political position to make any meaningful concessions to China, even if he meets President Xi Jinping on the sidelines of Asia (G20) and US (APEC) summits later this year.
Rising anti-Chinese sentiment is reflected in America’s former colony, the Philippines. The latest surveys show that the Asian superpower is distrusted by as many as people seven out of ten Filipinos. Nationalist elements in the Philippines sense an opportunity for a more confrontational policy and are raising the bar in the South China Sea.
Former Supreme Court Justice Antonio Carpio, who played a key role in his country’s historic arbitration award victory against China in 2016 at an arbitral tribunal in The Hague, pushes for new diplomatic measures to deter China in the disputed sea.
In particular, he called on the Philippine government to receive the arbitral award under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), which China has duly ignored, to the UN General Assembly.
“It will be voted on. I think we will win there (since) the majority of the members of the (General Assembly) are coastal states. They are afraid that their big neighbors will seize their exclusive economic zones,” said the former magistrate month on a forum.
Now that the government of Ferdinand Marcos Jr. has largely abandoned its predecessor’s pro-China policy and instead expanded defense relations with the West, a number of senators have publicly supported Carpio’s proposal.
Leading opposition senator Risa Hontiveros recently submitted a resolution calling on the Philippine Department of Foreign Affairs (DFA) to seek the support of the UN General Assembly against China’s aggressive actions in the South China Sea.
“It’s also based on my belief that the UN should be able to tell China to ‘stop what you’re doing and start behaving decently,'” Hontiveros said, emphasizing the need to engage on global platforms to “make meaningful political weight” against Beijing.
A Philippine flag waves as the nuclear-powered aircraft carrier USS Ronald Reagan (CVN-76) anchors off Manila Bay, June 26, 2018. The US warship was back in the area recently. Photo: AFP/Ted Aljibe
Crucially, even staunch allies of former President Rodrigo Duterte, who actively courted China and softened the two sides’ maritime disputes, are now also taking a tougher stance.
Senator Francis Tolentino, former political adviser to Duterte, has called for the formation of a “new Quad” with allies the US, Japan and Australia to counter China, while also supporting Caprio’s proposal for a more aggressive diplomatic offensive against China.
“I think Carpio is right to bring this to the attention of (UNGA) member states, as China is ignoring the arbitration ruling,” said Tolentino, who specializes in international law.
“But we have all the documents, not only the arbitral award, but also (the reports of) the bullying and other violations that China has committed in the West Philippine Sea,” he added.
Follow Richard Javad Heydarian on Twitter @Richeydarian
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