Global Courant
JAKARTA – Defense Minister and presidential candidate Prabowo Subianto’s presumed peace plan for Ukraine may have been shot down before it got off the ground, but it is unlikely to have done him any harm among Indonesian voters who generally have an unusually sympathetic view of Russia.
At the recent Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore, Prabowo delivered a speech intended to focus on Myanmar and the South China Sea, instead elaborating in general terms on the rising tensions between the US and China.
But it was the closing segment of the 18-minute speech in which he made a bizarre attempt to act as an international mediator, perhaps emboldened by President Joko Widodo’s deft handling of last year’s G20 summit in Bali.
Much to Kiev’s surprise, he proposed that the Russian and Ukrainian forces agree a ceasefire, establish a demilitarized zone by withdrawing 15 kilometers from their forward positions, and submit to a United Nations referendum on disputed area.
The former three-star general also recommended that the UN establish a peacekeeping force to guard the proposed DMZ. “Rest assured, Indonesia would be the first country to join,” he said, referring to the country’s past in peacekeeping in Cambodia, Africa and the Middle East.
Ukraine’s Defense Minister Oleksii Rezkinov firmly rejected the proposal, saying the idea of freezing troops in position “sounds like a Russian plan, not an Indonesian one”, adding: “We don’t need this mediator to come to us (with) this strange plan.”
European Union (EU) High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Josep Borrell, a Spanish socialist politician, also weighed in, telling his high-level audience that there should be a “just peace”, not a “peace of surrender”.
The Indonesian Foreign Ministry was reportedly surprised and unhappy, as it had already signed an earlier, carefully curated presentation that offered several constructive ideas on regional issues, but made only a passing reference to Ukraine.
President Widodo was also taken aback and called on Prabowo to clarify some of the key points in the speech, which called on officials gathered at Asia’s most important security summit to issue a statement calling for an end to the hostilities.
Although he is on good terms with Prabowo, Widodo has to strike a balance between the leader of the Large Indonesian Movement Party (Gerindra) and the ruling candidate of the Indonesian Democratic Party for Struggle (PDI-P), Ganjar Pranowo, who holds the top position shares in presidential polls.
With nine months left until the election, PDI-P Secretary General Hasto Kristiyanto, who is always in close contact with party matriarch Megawati Sukarnoputri, couldn’t help but wave goodbye to Prabowo, accusing him of undermining of Indonesia’s official position to condemn Russia’s invasion. .
There is no peace in sight for the war in Ukraine. Image: Twitter / New statesman
Some critics compared Prabowo’s plan to a Chinese peace blueprint, largely rejected by the EU on the grounds that it would allow Russian forces to maintain control of large swathes of eastern Ukraine occupied since the February 2022 invasion.
Chinese delegates predictably saw merit in Prabowo’s plan. “I really appreciate the efforts of our friends in the region, such as South Africa and Indonesia,” said Cui Tiankai, China’s former ambassador to Washington.
Sources familiar with Prabowo’s thinking say he has a soft spot for the Russian people for their history of fighting against adversity, though apparently that admiration does not extend to President Vladimir Putin.
The original speech suggested a more prominent role for the Indonesian Armed Forces (TNI) in trying to convince Myanmar’s military regime to accept the Association of Southeast Nations’ (ASEAN) five-point consensus plan to return to democratic rule.
It also called for restrictions on the size and armament of Coast Guard vessels in the region. China’s largest ship, the size of a heavy cruiser and carrying a 76mm gun, has been active around the disputed Spratly Islands and close to Indonesia’s tuna gas block.
The Philippine Coast Guard’s 62-strong fleet includes several frigate-sized ships and is commanded by a full-fledged admiral, as compared to the navy which is headed only by a vice admiral. The Indonesian Coast Guard is limited to small patrol boats.
Prabowo is one of the few defense ministers in Indonesia who thinks strategically when deciding what equipment the TNI needs, even if the defense ministry doesn’t have the budget to afford some of the expensive items on its wish list.
While Prabowo’s speech is not the first time he has strayed on a tangent, it may well have been a source of support given the resentment many Indonesians hold towards the US and the West over their war on terror, which is widely is seen as a veiled war against Islam.
That feeling seems to outweigh any obvious parallels that can be drawn between Indonesia’s own history of Dutch colonialism and an imperialist Russian president trying to take back a former colony in an act of unprovoked aggression.
It is not helped by the fact that Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelensky is a Jew, or that many Indonesians view Russia as partly an Islamic state due to the presence of at least 14 million Muslims, or 10% of the total population, by far the largest number in the world. Europe.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has become a global icon for his resistance to Russian aggression, but he is not so well loved in Indonesia. Photo: NDTV/Screengrab
While previous Russian leaders have often dealt brutally with Chechnya, where 95% of the population is Muslim, thousands of Chechens have fought in Ukraine and Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov describes Putin as Islam’s “most loyal ally and protector”.
Since taking power in 2000, Putin has pursued radically different policies toward Muslims than in previous eras. In 2013, he announced that Islam was an integral part of the country’s history, the first time a Russian leader had done so.
A year later, he declared: “Muslims in Russia have every right to feel that they are part of the global Islamic nation, and that Moscow is and remains a geopolitical ally of Islam.”
The Turkish newspaper Al-Estiklal said last year that Putin’s rapprochement with Muslims is inseparable from his strategy of geopolitical expansion and “restoring the glory of the old empire in its spheres of influence in the Balkans and other areas with an Islamic presence.”
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