International Courant
Wagner troops are in Belarus to coach the military there. There are extra Wagner troops now in convoy on the best way to Belarus. a spokesman for Wagner and considered one of its high leaders launched movies with primarily the identical backside line: they’ll defend the homeland and help Russia’s army and civilian leaders.
Wagner’s troops are again and a personal army contractor seems to be taking part in a strategic position for Russia and Belarus.
A brand new head has been chosen for Wagner. He’s Andrei Troshev, a extremely embellished Russian military veteran, a colonel, aged 70, who performed an vital position in Syria the place he was immediately concerned in army operations. His cowl title is grey hair.
Andrei Troshev. Photograph: Twitter
Wagner’s co-founder and eminence grise, Yevgeny Prigozhin, has disappeared.
On June 29, Russian President Vladimir Putin held a gathering on the Kremlin with about 30 Wagner commanders, together with Prigozhin. (Normal Sergey Surovikin, one other lacking participant, was not current on the June 29 assembly.)
This three-hour assembly, in keeping with the Kremlin, got here with a suggestion from Putin. He’s mentioned to have mentioned that each one Wagners “can come collectively in a single place and proceed to serve and nothing will change for them. They are going to be led by the identical one who has been their true commander all alongside. That individual, Putin mentioned, is “Sedoy,” the Russian phrase for grey hair.
In response, Prigozhin mentioned: “No, the blokes don’t agree with this determination.”
Prigozhin’s reply successfully ended his management over Wagner. After the assembly, on June 4 or 5, the Russian police and the FSB (the successor to the KGB in Russia) invaded Prigozhin’s giant property in Saint Petersburg.
A number of reviews surfaced, some saying that Prigozhin had gone to his St. Petersburg mansion in a limousine to gather his cash and weapons that had been seized earlier. One other report had him report back to the FSB places of work in Saint Petersburg, the place he did the identical. However in each instances these have been rumors and no eyewitnesses have come ahead.
On reflection, evidently this and different tales have been designed to hide Prigozhin’s true destiny.
The Prigozhin-led assault on Moscow on June 24 was nearly a catastrophe for Putin. The Russian chief was faraway from Moscow for safety causes. Loyal troops, together with Chechens, presidential guards and police, have been deployed to guard the Protection Ministry in Moscow, Prigozhin’s foremost goal.
Prigozhin apparently believed that key leaders within the army, other than Protection Minister Sergey Shoigu and Chief of Employees Normal Valery Gerasimov, would help his takeover, purge the Protection Minister and Chief of Employees, and put Prigozhin and maybe Surovikin accountable for the armed forces. battle of Russia. forces.
Putin could be confronted with a fait accompli. Both he might settle for the change or, in keeping with Prigozhin, he would get replaced. Prigozhin noticed himself as Russia’s ruler and, relying on how issues turned out, maybe Russia’s subsequent president.
Putin, it appeared, was additionally not sure of the military’s loyalty. That uncertainty was undoubtedly motivated by concern about “Normal Armageddon,” Sergey Surovikin.
Surovikin, who served as a particular adviser to Prigozhin and Wagner, was extraordinarily indignant with the military management. Surovikin served as Supreme Commander of the Russian Armed Forces from October 8, 2022 to January 2023, when he was changed by Valery Gerasimov.
Surovikin was given the obscure title of deputy from Gerasimov, and though he formally retained the job, he grew to become a particular adviser to Prigozhin. The humiliation of Surovikin, meted out by the outdated guard within the military, undoubtedly led him to strongly help Prigozhin. The 2 made their transfer after Bakhmut’s victory.
On June 24, as Wagner forces superior in direction of Rostov-on-Don, Surovikin made a egocentric video claiming the invasion was fallacious and saying that Wagner forces ought to return to their bases. It’s believed that this video was made to keep away from future prosecution if the Prigozhin-led coup failed.
On the finish of June, Surovikin’s daughter allegedly instructed Baza, a Telegram channel, that Surovikin was working from residence and was not arrested. Subsequently, Surovikin’s spouse reported that her husband had not come residence.
In response to the Wall Avenue Journal and different media, Surovikin was detained together with 13 different military officers.
Placement of Wagner troops
It’s now recognized that some Wagner troops are in Belarus coaching common forces there.
Andrey Kartapolov, chairman of the protection committee of the Russian parliament, mentioned: “It’s clear that Wagner went to Belarus to coach the Belarusian armed forces. There’s such a spot because the Suwalki Hall. Ought to one thing occur, we desperately want this Suwalki Hall. A strike drive can be able to take this hall in just a few hours.’
Poland has been be part of forces alongside the border with Belarus, which prompted alarm in Minsk and Moscow. International advisers, together with the British, now function technical aides to the Polish forces on the Belarusian border, signaling to Russia that the actual downside may very well be a NATO initiative to save lots of Ukraine by attacking Belarus. fall, forcing Russia to divide its armed forces.
The Suwalki Hall is a 96 km lengthy strip of land connecting the Russian enclave of Kaliningrad with Belarus. Whereas Kaliningrad might be supported by sea or air, the land bridge is vital to make sure regular communications. There are each highway and rail connections. This strip of land is Polish territory on one aspect and Lithuanian on the opposite.
Suwalki Gang of Hole. Map: world safety
Final yr the Lithuanians blocked shipments alongside this route, lifting the blockade after the Russians threatened dire penalties. The Hall can be seen as one weak hyperlink for NATO as it’s the solely NATO land connection to the Baltic states from Poland and from Europe. Aside from an airlift, that is the land route NATO must help these nations.
Indian clue reviews that in a weekend interview, main overseas and protection professional Roderich Kiesewetter (an ex-colonel who headed the Affiliation of Reservists of the Bundeswehr from 2011 to 2016) advised that if circumstances warrant, Ukraine, NATO ought to contemplate a transfer to chop off Kaliningrad from Russian provide traces. We see how Putin reacts when he’s beneath stress.’”
On July 6, the Russians flew a Tu-214SR and two Su-30M fighter jets into worldwide waters close to Kaliningrad and on to Russia. They have been met by British Typhoons flying from Estonia to shadow them. The Tu-214SR is named the Russian “Doomsday” aircraft. It’s a cell command and management platform with a complete multi-intelligence payload. (See TASS photograph under.)
The Tu-214SR was probably within the space, reporting on Polish and NATO operations close to Belarus and Kaliningrad. The Russians contemplate Kaliningrad to be the possessor nice strategic significance and are delicate to developments which will threaten the enclave.
The US place on these developments shouldn’t be recognized, however what is evident is that Ukraine is now struggling heavy casualties and is on the verge of shedding the conflict with Russia.
There have been some detrimental ones reviews coming from the Pentagon together with Ukrainian Chief of Employees Valerii Zaluzhny, who’s making an attempt to rethink the failed Ukrainian offensive.
Africa
Evidently the deployment of Wagner troops in Africa is normalizing. About 200 Wagner troops, mainly a daily rotation, have now arrived within the Central African Republic. They have been flown there by COSI (Group of Officers for Worldwide Safety), an organization affiliated with Wagner, utilizing army helicopters. Earlier posts that one purge of Wagner troops in Africa appear to have been fallacious and confused an influence spin with a purge.
Strategic issues
The conflict in Ukraine is a part of a proxy battle between NATO and Russia. Whereas there are certainly sub-issues which might be vital to key combatants, for instance the Russian-speaking inhabitants of Ukraine, earlier than the Russian invasion, NATO constructed up Ukrainian forces to have ample drive to take again key areas in Donbas and Crimea. The build-up of NATO was a part of a plan to deliver Ukraine into NATO and strategically isolate Russia.
The Russians opposed the NATO plan and compelled the problem of build up the Ukrainian military by brazenly invading Ukrainian territory. However earlier than sending its troops throughout the border, Russia tried to interact Washington and NATO in a diplomatic course of geared toward resolving Russia-NATO and Russia-US points. The trouble took its most mature kind in December 2021, however failed as each Washington and NATO rejected the Russian initiative.
The difficulty of Ukraine becoming a member of NATO continues to be not resolved even after the final one NATO summit in Vilnius. The summit itself hoped to declare victory in Ukraine and even foresaw the overthrow of the Russian authorities. There have been secret talks with key Russian figures, together with Prigozhin.
However the coup in Prigozhin failed, and the Russians efficiently repelled the long-awaited Ukrainian offensive. Ukraine suffered very heavy casualties and the preliminary lack of not less than 20% of the Western gear despatched there to win the battle. Methods just like the German Leopard tank and the American infantry preventing automobile Bradley have been unsuccessful and a shame.
Worse, the battle (which continues to be ongoing) revealed that the programs and techniques designed to guard NATO from Russia have been insufficient and primarily based on quite a few misguided assumptions about warfare.
Destroyed tanks. Photograph: TASS
It’s removed from clear that any try to save lots of Ukraine by extending the conflict to Belarus will succeed, and that this might deliver Europe right into a normal conflict on its territory. NATO is now unprepared for conflict. The failures in Ukraine amply illustrate this.
Whereas it might be true that NATO can muster superior air energy, it must fly in opposition to efficient Russian air protection programs and Russian fighter jets. However the huge conflict could be on the bottom, and NATO cannot battle that conflict now, presumably ever.
Will Washington use its proxy, Poland, to assault Belarus to try to save Ukraine?
Wagner troops have now risen from the ashes and Prigozhin and Surovikin have disappeared. If the chairman of the Duma’s Protection Committee is true, these troops are able to take the Suwalki Hall in case Poland goes to conflict with Belarus.
Stephen Bryen is a senior fellow on the Middle for Safety Coverage and the Yorktown Institute. This text was initially printed on weapons and technique, its Substack. International Courant republishes it with permission.
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