Global Courant 2023-05-11 21:42:58
Yesterday my Bakhmut update reported that it appeared that the Ukrainians had launched a major offensive on Bakhmut’s southern flank. Evidence for this were news reports, Ukrainian claims of a major victory, and the claim by the head of the private military contractor Wagner, Yevgeny Prigozhin, that Russian soldiers had not fought but had run away, and that perhaps as many as 500 of them had been killed. He went on to claim that he would fix the problem even though it was not his responsibility.
But was this what really happened? Even the Institute for the Study of Warwhich tends to be strongly pro-Ukrainian (although it tries to maintain some objectivity), is not so sure because it could not “visually” confirm the Ukrainian success.
At least one excellent video analyst on You Tube describes Ukraine’s action as a kind of reconnaissance that was in force, but only drove off a small group of Russian soldiers. The channel also says that the chance of a Ukrainian follow-up is very small, because Russia’s flank defenses outside the trip line are very strong.
But the real problem is Prigozhin, who brutally attacked the leadership of the Russian army in recent days and called Putin, known in Russia as Grandfather, a “bastard”.
Prigozhin lives on Putin’s support, and Putin is considered his “best friend.” So what’s going on?
Prigozhin informed his aides that he was not referring to Putin, but to Colonel General Valery Gerasimov, Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces. It is unlikely that the Moscow nomenklatura will believe this excuse.
To begin with, Prigozhin was not at the front and his information seems to come from Ukrainian statements. When he learned that people were running away from the Russian army — as Ukraine claimed when he showed a video of half a dozen soldiers running — he even exaggerated it beyond Ukraine’s own statements, saying that 500 Russian soldiers had been killed.
Since there were at most a few Russian army companies along the line of contact for the alleged battle, this is statistically impossible.
This blast on Putin, along with Prigozhin’s claims about munitions and his attacks on army command, provide evidence that while Wagner is being used for urban fighting in Bakhmut, Prigozhin receives no intelligence instructions outside of his immediate mandate.
That would mean, among other things, that he is not trusted and is not seen as a ‘real’ military commander. And in reality, Prigozhin has no military training or background. He relies on field commanders, lately some from the highest ranks of the Russian army, to conduct Wagner operations.
Having said all that, some think Prigozhin may have crossed a red line with Putin this time around. In the simplest terms, Prigozhin demands recognition and prestige, and he gets neither.
His credibility is now at an all-time low.
Moreover, he may have dug a hole deep enough to suggest that his days as head of Wagner are numbered.
Stephen Bryen is a senior fellow at the Center for Security Policy and the Yorktown Institute. This article was originally published on its Substack, Weapons and Strategy. Global Courant republishes it with permission.
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