Global Courant 2023-05-21 14:40:00
EARLY SUNDAY AM writethru after Saturday and Friday updates: The Louis Leterrier-directed tenthquel’s Friday came in at $28M with Saturday easing -21% to $22.2M for what has always been an expected $67M start for Fast X, just $3M shy of F9’s $70M — not too bad. The finish line this weekend, as we’ve always told you, will be worldwide, which is on its way to a $320M haul, which is the third best global start for Fast & Furious movie after Fate of the Furious ($541.9M) and Furious 7 ($397.6M). Endgame global on F9 was $726.2M, and clearly this should leg out to be a little higher than that, although lower than Fate of the Furious which ended its run at $1.2 billion global.
Here’s how top 10 chart estimates are looking for the weekend:
1.) Fast X (Uni) 4,046 theaters Fri $28M, Sat $22.2M, Sun $16.8M 3-day $67M/Wk 1
2.) Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (Dis) 4,450 theaters Fri $8.3M Sat $14M Sun $10.4M 3-day $32.7M (-47%), Total $267.2M/Wk 3
3) Super Mario Bros (Uni) 3,540 (-260) theaters, Fri $2.25M Sat $4.45M Sun 3-day $9.8M (-22%) Total $549.2M/Wk 7
4) Book Club: Next Chapter (Foc) 3,513 (+5) theaters Fri $900K Sat $1.2M Sun $900K 3-day $3M (-55%) Total $13.1M/Wk 2
5) Evil Dead Rise (NL) 2,173 (-648) theaters, Fri $685K Sat $1M Sun $715K 3-day $2.4M (-35%) Total $64.1M/Wk 5
6) John Wick Chapter 4 (LG) 1,312 (-301) theaters Fri $330K Sat $600K Sun $400K, 3-day $1.33M (-36%), Total $185.3M/Wk 9
7) Are You There God?…(LG) 1,668 (-697) theaters, Fri $330 Sat $600K Sun $400K, 3-day $1.3M (-48%) Total $18.6M /Wk 3
8) Hypnotic (Ketchup) 1,733 (-385) theaters, Fri $240K Sat $370K Sun $275K 3-day $885K (-63%) Total $4.1M/Wk 2
9) Blackberry (IFC) 595 (-75) theaters Fri $155K Sat $225K Sun $155K 3 day $535K (+9%) Total $1.2M/Wk 2
10) Dungeons & Dragons…(Par/eOne) 511 (-423) theaters Fri $104K Sat $178K Sun $108K 3-day $390K (-51%) Total $92.8M/Wk 8
CinemaScore for Fast X came in at B+, the same grade as F9, both being down from latter sequel highs of Fate of the Furious (A), Furious 7 (A) and Hobbs & Shaw (A-) — all of which interestingly enough starring Dwayne Johnson.
PostTrak is 82% positive with a 67% recommend for the general crowd while kids under 12 (is that the demo now for these movies?) rated it with 91% in the top two and a 62% recommend. Guy leaning at 58% with vibrant multi-diverse demos of 29% Latino/Hispanic, 22% Black, 19% Asian/other and 29% Caucasian. The 18-34 bunch is at 59%. South, South Central and West were the most robust. All the PLFs and Imax are fueling over a third of the tenthquel’s gross so far. Top theater in the country? AMC Empire with close to $100K (plus early shows).
Fast X is one of two Universal tentpoles this summer next to Christopher Nolan’s Oppenheimer, so it stands to reason they’d program the film’s marketing campaign like D-Day. This all started for the film with the Super Bowl 60-second trailer spot which was preceded by nine custom legacy trailers that revisited each of the film’s chapters, followed by a trailer debut event with Vin Diesel, Michelle Rodriguez, Tyrese Gibson, Ludacris, and Sung Kang in downtown Los Angeles for over 1K Fast fans.
Jason Momoa in ‘Fast X’
Universal
The second trailer for Fast X included a remix of Daddy Yankee’s hit song “Gasolina” by Myke Towers and Safari Riot which won over Latino and Hispanic audiences with an integration and custom spot at the Latin American Music Awards and increased awareness with YouTube Hispanic Reach Accelerator and TikTok Latin Pulse media buys.
In addition to in-theater placements alongside big movies like Ant-Man & The Wasp: Quantumania, Cocaine Bear, Creed III, John Wick: Chapter 4, and The Super Mario Bros Movie, the two trailers raced up over 750M digital views.
A targeted sports presence was critical to build the Fast X’s mojo. There was a custom spot with Bronny James and Vin Diesel, which was posted on social media by Bronny’s father, LeBron James.
Building off that spot, Fast X had a presence throughout the NBA Playoffs including an appearance by Vin Diesel, on-court signage in Round 1 and placements throughout the conference semifinals and western and eastern conference finals. Additional spots ran during March Madness, Premier League Soccer, WWE, and UFC.
Fast X took over the streets of Los Angeles and New York an Uber Blitz with additional targeting in Miami during F1 and New Jersey during UFC. The Fast X campaign brought the family to the F1 Miami Grand Prix where Vin Diesel and Michelle Rodriguez participated in a Sky Sports Grand Prix opener broadcast in 80 countries and an F1 interview with McLaren where they met their fleet of drivers. Rodriguez took a Hot Lap with McLaren, and Ludacris joined Vin Diesel and Rodriguez on Race Day for numerous on-air hits.
Among pushes to the franchise’s core multicultural audience, there was a broadcast integration with the Latin American Music Awards, while the soundtrack’s artist Maria Becerra had a custom spot for Billboard’s Latin Women in Music Awards. Vin Diesel appeared in J. Balvin’s upcoming “Toretto” music video. Fast X also had Telemundo integrations for LIGA MX Quarter Finals, Women’s World Cup, and Top Chef VIP.
Among the shows that Fast X aired spots on were FX’s Snowfall series finale, Family Guy, 9-1-1, The Voice, Survivor, American Idol, The Masked Singer, Station 19, SNL, MTV Movie & TV Awards, and Fear of the Walking Dead premiere. Fast X also dominated digital screens with a YouTube cost per hour masthead, YouTube Coachella Weekend 1 sponsorship, and high-impact takeovers on Meta, Vevo, TikTok, Hulu, IMDb, Fandango, Flixster, Rotten Tomatoes, Peacock, and Paramount+.
And of course, the tentpole was promoted via NBCUniversal’s Symphony program, which thumbs the movie throughout the conglom’s tentacles including an NBCU Fate Of The Furious theme night, spots in NBC’s coverage of The Kentucky Derby and a Xfinity 10G campaign, and outdoor splashes Universal Theme Parks in Hollywood and Orlando.
Total box office weekend for all films is looking to be around $124M, +60% from the same frame a year ago, but 16% off the same pre-Memorial Day weekend period in 2019 which totaled $148.3M. Despite the box office climbing back up, there continues to be $20M-$30M missing from the overall weekend box office when stacked up against pre-pandemic norms.
FRIDAY AFTERNOON: Universal’s Fast X is heading down a road that it was expected to in the US, with a $27M Friday on its way to $65M at 4,046 locations. This is to be expected for a long-in-the-tooth franchise, especially a sequel that’s arriving a quick two years after 2021’s F9 ($70M opening).
Fast X’s Friday includes $7.5M Thursday previews. That Friday figure (plus previews) is 9% behind the same first day/Thursday haul of F9 which was $29.8M. That movie already jumped the shark and took a couple of the Fast goes to space? What to do now? Add Jason Momoa as the main bad guy to the mix. And as it was said, when it comes to Uni making bank on this $300M+ production, it’s all about overseas. International through two days is pushing close to $70M. With a running total of $37M, Fast X is seeing the biggest blast off for a Hollywood studio title in China year to date.
Courtesy Everett Collection
Disney/Marvel’s Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 at 4,450 theaters is looking at an estimated $8.2m Friday for a third weekend of $32.7M, -46% for a running total of $267.2M. That’s a really good hold considering Universal took all the pic’s PLF and Imax screens. That third weekend amount is not that far from GOTG2’s $34.6M (-47%), and 30% ahead of the third session of GOTG’s $25.1M (-40%).
Illumination/Universal/Nintendo’s Super Mario Bros at 3,540 theaters is eyeing a $2.2M Friday, and a seventh weekend of $9.5M, -25%, for a running total of $549M.
Focus Features’ second weekend of Book Club: The Next Chapter at 3,513 theaters is looking at $3M, -55%, in fourth place for a $13.1M ten-day take. Friday is around $900K.
New Line’s Evil Dead Rise at 2,173 theaters is spotting $630K Friday and a fifth weekend $2.2M in 5th, -42%, and a running cume by Sunday of $63.9M.
PREVIOUS FRIDAY AM: Universal’s Fast X, in what was an early start for previews for the franchise at 2 pm, sparked to $7.5 million in Thursday numbers. Forecasts see the Louis Leterrier-directed tenthquel at a $60 million-plus stateside frame this weekend, with a greater amount of gas abroad at $235 million.
How last night stacks up: The previous F9 in 2021 saw Thursday previews of $7.1M after showtimes that began at 7 pm, which led to a $70M opening in the first summer of fully re-opened cinemas from Covid.
The franchise’s best Thursday numbers came from 2015’s Furious 7 ($15.8M, $147.1M 3-day) and 2017’s Fate of the Furious ($10.4M, $98.7M 3-day). Before the 2013 Memorial Day holiday, Fast & Furious 6 did $7.5M from late-night shows that began at 10 pm That resulted in a $97.3M three-day total, and $117M over four days.
Fast X revs to a total of 4,048 North American theaters today.
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Deadline’s Nancy Tartaglione will have more updates this morning on the international front, but Fast X, which stars series newcomers Jason Momoa and Brie Larson, already had a big day abroad with $58.6M. It made $25.7M through Thursday out of China, and posted Wednesday numbers of $32.9M from 38 markets. The pic was No. 1 in every territory it debuted including China, France, Germany and Korea.
Social media authority RelishMix reports: “Will the absence of late-night talk-show appearances soften the impact on the Fast X campaign as well as the rained-out F1 race in Italy this weekend? As the most robust social franchise for action adventure films, the social digital super-stats and awareness levels on the tenth movie are clocking super-social media levels at 1.3B across Facebook, Twitter, YouTube, Instagram and TikTok combined. Core levels are above historic norms. This campaign extends even further across Twitter and TikTok as view levels are balanced across platforms — as well as with the Big Game spot from Super Bowl 57, which saw a boost of 94.1M views for its trailer online in the 24-hours following the game. ”
Fast X’s social media reach heading into opening is below Fate of the Furious near 1.9 billion and a modicum above F9’s 1.29 billion.
