Global Courant
As Russia’s progress in Ukraine has ground to a halt, with huge losses of material and people, frustrated head of the Wagner mercenary force Yevgeny Prigozhin has called on Russia to transition to a total war economy:
The Kremlin must declare a new wave of mobilization to call up more fighters, declare martial law and force “everyone possible” to participate in the country’s munitions production efforts. We must stop building new roads and infrastructure and work only for the war.
His words echo similar sentiments expressed by the head of Russian state broadcaster RT, Margaret Simonyan — an influential supporter of Russian President Vladimir Putin — who recently said:
Our boys risk their lives and blood every day. We’re at home here. If our industry isn’t keeping up, let’s all get a grip! Ask someone. Aren’t we all ready to come and help two hours after work?
Already facing Western sanctions since annexing Crimea and occupying territory in Ukraine’s eastern provinces in 2014, Russia has had to adjust to living under an increasingly harsh set of economic punishments.
And while Putin apparently planned for a relatively short “special military operation”, this conflict has turned into a protracted and costly war of attrition.
The economist has estimated Russian military spending of 5 trillion rubles (US$60.5 billion) a year, or 3% of GDP, a figure the magazine describes as “a puny amount” compared to World War II spending. Other estimates are higher – the German Council for Foreign Relations (GDAP) estimate $90 billionor more than 5% of GDP.
But international sanctions have hit the economy hard. They have compromised access to international markets and the ability to access foreign currencies and products. And the speed with which the Russian military is searching equipment and ammunition is straining the country’s defense industry.
The Kremlin thus faces a choice: massively ramp up its war effort to achieve a decisive breakthrough, or continue its war of attrition. The latter would survive Ukraine in hopes that international support could falter in the face of a global cost-of-living crisis.
Equipment shortages
Russia has lost significant amounts of weapons and ammunition.
In March 2023, British Defense Minister James Heappey estimated that Russia lost 1,900 main battle tanks, 3,300 other armored fighting vehicles, 73 manned fixed-wing aircraft, hundreds of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) of all types, 78 helicopters, 550 tube artillery systems, 190 rocket artillery systems, and eight naval vessels.
Wanted: more modern tanks. Photo: Press Service of the Russian Ministry of Defense via AP
Russia faces a number of significant military-industrial challenges. First, its high-tech precision-guided weapons require access to foreign technology.
This is not available now – or limited to deals that circumvent sanctions and can deliver only a fraction of what is needed. Most of the high-tech electronic components used by the Russian military are manufactured by American companies.
So it has to replace them with lower quality domestic components, which is probably why the Russian military uses its high-tech weapons sparingly. But the artillery shells it has relied on fall short.
American think tank Center for Security and International Studies has reported US intelligence estimates that since February 2022, export controls have affected Russia’s ability to replace more than 6,000 pieces of military equipment.
Sanctions have also forced major defense industrial facilities to halt production and led to shortages of critical components for tanks and aircraft, among others.
Do, fix – and spend
There are clear signs of increasing efforts to address the shortages.
According to a report in the EconomistDmitry Medvedev, deputy chairman of the Russian Security Council, recently announced plans for the production of 1,500 modern tanks by 2023. Russian news agency Tass reported recently Medvedev also plans to oversee ramping up mass production of drones.
Reportedly the government providing substantial loans to arms manufacturers and even giving orders to banks to do the same. Official statistics indicate that the production of “finished metal products” in January and February was 20% higher than last year.
The GDP reported in February: “As of January 2023, several Russian arms factories were working three shifts, six or seven days a week, offering competitive salaries. Therefore, they can increase the production of those weapons systems that Russia can still produce despite the sanctions.”
So it appears that the Kremlin is playing a delicate balancing act by diverting significant resources to the military and related industries while trying to minimize disruption to the overall economy, which would risk derailing support from large parts of the country. lose the population.
There appears to be little shortage of consumer goods in Russia, but shoppers say quality has deteriorated. Photo: EPA-EFE via The Conversation/Maxim Shipenkov
The International Monetary Fund has predicted that the Russian economy will grow This year 0.7% (which would trump the UK expected growth of 0.4%). This will be largely supported by hydrocarbon export revenues and arms sales to several client countries that are happy to ignore Western sanctions.
Meanwhile, diversifying import sources has kept stores stocked. However, The Russian pollster Romir reported that while most people are not concerned about the absence of sanctioned goods, about half complained that the quality of substitute goods had deteriorated.
So ordinary Russians – those who have not lost loved ones on the battlefield or in exile – remain relatively optimistic about everyday life. But a longer, more intense conflict, requiring a shift to an all-out war economy, could be an entirely different matter.
Christopher Blut is Professor of International Relations and Security, University of Bradford
This article has been republished from The conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.
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