Global Courant
The British quote Russian media but identify the Moscow Times, which is unofficial and often unreliable Daily Mail has published a shocking report about a radical change in Russia’s military leadership.
According to the story, as published, General Valery Gerasimov, Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces, and Deputy Defense Minister Yunus-bek Yevkurov have been purged.
The story continues that Gerasimov has been replaced by Colonel General Mikhail Teplinskiy. A number of other news outlets claim that “General Armageddon”, Sergey Surovikin, is also missing.
Meanwhile, Oleksiy Danilov, Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine and Coordinator of the Commander-in-Chief’s Staff, claims that “the armed forces of Ukraine fulfill the main task – the maximum destruction of manpower, equipment, fuel depots, military vehicles, command posts, artillery and air defense forces of the Russian army.”
Objective reports from the battlefield say that Ukraine has made very little progress and is losing more equipment and manpower than Russia. In addition, it appears that Russia has launched its own offensive operations in northern Luhansk and is achieving success.
The Daily Mail story and Danilov’s curious statement may be part of the effort to boost Ukraine’s prestige ahead of the NATO meeting in Vilnius. Ukraine is now striving for NATO membership, or rather not for a rock-solid security deal.
US President Joe Biden says the United States is considering offering Ukraine a security deal like the one the US has with Israel. That Agreement between the US and Israel is not a promise to defend Israel. Instead, it says that support for Israel “has been a cornerstone of US foreign policy.”
The US-Israel agreement means that the US will help Israel maintain a qualitative edge over its (otherwise undefined) adversaries, something the US has generally done, except when the US has withheld some weapons as punishment for Israel’s alleged conduct at some point. like settlements or Gaza or Hezbollah or Iran.
It is not clear whether Biden intends to unilaterally offer this kind of deal to Ukraine, or whether he intends to get NATO to agree to such an offer. Biden’s problem is that certain countries have doubts about a long-term commitment, or are completely opposed to such a deal, just like Hungary.
This year’s NATO summit in Vilnius, Lithuania. The alliance will have a hard time reaching agreement among its members. Image: Facebook
NATO can content itself with some kind of statement about Ukraine’s importance and the long-term desirability of Ukraine joining NATO. If a NATO pledge claims Ukraine’s pre-war borders, it will damage any possibility of peace talks.
It is likely that Biden’s suggestion is a fallback position, as attempts to get a stronger NATO security pledge or NATO membership for Ukraine have met with no success.
It is unlikely that convincing NATO NOW supporters, such as former Trump vice president Mike Pence or badly damaged French President Emmanuel Macron, or Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, will convince.
(It should be noted that Erdogan’s statement supporting Ukraine’s NATO membership conflicts with Erdogan’s continued efforts to once again play peacemaker between Kiev and Moscow. The Turkish president appears to have shot himself in the foot.)
More and more Europeans are beginning to see that the war in Ukraine is undermining their security and causing economic chaos. The French riots are a warning shot that things are not going well in Europe.
While those riots can be seen as an internal affair related to France’s huge problem regarding non-assimilated communities in North Africa and the Middle East, the riots also represent deep frustration in Europe and a shift in the European politics to the extreme right.
Add to this the fact that many Europeans have long wanted a Europe more independent from the United States. In fact, even Macron and his former counterparts in Germany and Italy have committed to creating a European command not linked to NATO.
Now they sing a different song, but that doesn’t mean there isn’t public support to be free from American domination. Ukraine trapped them into following Washington’s orders.
Today, Europe needs American energy, American security for Middle Eastern oil and gas, and American military technology. Above all, Europe needs the US to fight for it if a war breaks out, as European defense capabilities are nowhere near sufficient to guarantee their security if attacked.
While much of the world views the destruction of the Nord Stream pipeline as an attack on the Russians, it increasingly appears that it was an attempt by the US to cut Germany off from Russian influence.
We don’t yet know exactly who is behind the various claims of a purge in the Kremlin. But we do know that Says General Surovikin’s daughter that the general is okay.
“Nothing happened to him, nobody arrested him and he is in his office,” said Veronika Surovikina. Baza Telegram channel, known for its contacts in the Russian security services. Interestingly, despite what Mrs. Surovikina says, the press insists that Surovikin is missing.
We will have to wait and see if there is a purge in Russia and who the victims are. It is very interesting that although the press is full of news about Russian generals, it fails to report that Prigozhin is also missing. He hasn’t been seen in days.
Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko said Prigozhin was not in Belarus, as previously agreed, but had gone back to St Petersburg and may have traveled to Moscow as well.
There were two reports after the major raid on Prigozhin’s mansion in St. Petersburg. The first is that Prigozhin had returned to his home to retrieve some of the seized items, including weapons, gold and cash.
The second is a report that gave a different locus for Prigozhin. It said Prigozhin reported to the FSB (Russian intelligence) office in St Petersburg, where he allegedly received his seized material, or at least some of it.
Both stories about Prigozhin are full of problems. How come no one saw him? How could he cram all the confiscated items into his limousine? Was Lukashenko suggesting that Prigozhin had been returned to Saint Petersburg instead of going there alone?
Was Lukashenko’s hint about Moscow revealing where Prigozhin is now? Meanwhile, in Belarus, work has stopped on the camp built for Wagner troops who decided to stay with Prigozhin. In Belarus, none of those troops have even been seen.
The official Russian press (RT, Sputnik News, Tass, Izvestia) continues to report on the raid on Prigozhin’s house, portraying him in very negative terms. According to some reports, Prigozhin’s popularity dropped significantly with the coup attempt, and he is now collapsing even further as he is portrayed as a traitor and a thief.
There are still big questions about who was complicit in Prigozhin’s attempt to seize power. Many commentators have said that Prigozhin’s incursion was not a coup because he invaded Rostov with a very small force, and only part of that force made it through to Moscow, meaning it had no chance of fighting the army. win if there was one. .
But the idea was clear that Prigozhin would receive support from the Russian army, but not from the top leaders, whom he despised and who wanted to be executed by firing squad.
The fact that the Russian army moved very slowly against Prigozhin and that the FSB, presidential guard and Chechen units were preparing to defend Moscow suggests that there was a real fear in the Kremlin that Prigozhin really had support for his takeover of the Russian government.
Did General Sergey Surovikin (L) take part in the uprising of Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin (R)? Photos: Twitter
As everyone now knows, while there may have been passive support, Prigozhin could not mobilize the military or security services to openly switch sides. Surovikin himself posted a video from his iPhone telling Wagner’s forces to stop and not fight Russia. Was he trying to protect himself if the coup failed? Or was the appeal sincere?
It is important that Ukraine and Washington can say at the NATO meeting that Russia is in crisis, that Russian forces are being exhausted and that there is a concrete chance of victory over the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
Much of the news, seen in that light, is an attempt to shape the NATO meeting and get a favorable outcome. What is being worn away on the other side is Ukraine’s manpower and equipment and the future security of Europe.
In Soviet times it was easy to see who was in and who was out. They lined up on the Kremlin wall, and depending on where they stood, you could guess their prominence. Usually if they didn’t show up, they were liquidated. It’s harder to be sure now.
Stephen Bryen is a senior fellow at the Center for Security Policy and the Yorktown Institute. This article was originally published on its Substack, Weapons and Strategy. Global Courant republishes it with permission.
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