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Mathematically, Trump can’t win a delegate majority till the March 12 primaries and caucuses, however he might wrap up the nomination sooner if Haley have been to droop her marketing campaign earlier than then. With Haley dealing with a doubtlessly vital loss in South Carolina, it is doable she might drop out shortly after in the present day’s sport. If she have been to take action, the 2024 Republican race can be the shortest aggressive presidential main for the reason that trendy nominating course of took form within the Nineteen Seventies.
To date, solely 4 states (plus the U.S. Virgin Islands) have solid their votes. The race ending in the present day – and even after the Michigan main subsequent week – would beat present information for the earliest end date (March 3 within the US). 2004 Democratic contest) and the bottom variety of voting states (19 within the 2000 Democratic race).
Trump might win quicker than anybody else
The date a presidential main successfully ended and the whole variety of days and contests in the course of the aggressive interval, based mostly on extremely contested presidential nominating races from 1976 to 2020
Yr Get together Presumed nominee Efficient in Whole variety of days Whole variety of competitions 2020 D Joe Biden April 8, 2020 66 28 2016 D Hillary Clinton June 7, 2016 128 50 2016 R Donald Trump Might 4, 2016 94 41 2012 R Mitt Romney April 10, 2012 32 99 2008 D Barack Obama June 3, 2008 153 51 2008 R John McCain March 4, 2008 62 39 2004 D John Kerry March 3, 2004 45 30 2000 D Al Gore March 9, 2000 46 19 2000 R George W. Bush March 9, 2000 46 23 1996 R Bob Dole March 14, 1996, 50 31, 1992 D Invoice Clinton March 19, 1992 39 27 1992 R George HW Bush* Might 5, 1992 94 38 1988 D Michael Dukakis April 21, 1988 74 51 1988 R George HW Bush March 29, 1988, 31 76 1984 D Walter Mondale July 16, 1984 148 51 1980 D Jimmy Carter* June 3, 1980 135 51 1980 R Ronald Reagan Might 20, 1980 121 39 1976 D Jimmy Carter June 9, 1976 143 51 1976 R Gerald Ford* August 16, 1976 211 51
*The incumbent president who confronted a extremely contentious main election
The precise overdate is when a candidate turned the de facto nominee, both by securing a majority of delegates or as a result of all different viable rivals had withdrawn from the race by that date.
The variety of days a race was aggressive consists of each the primary and final days of the interval, and the variety of races within the aggressive interval consists of races within the 50 states and the District of Columbia.
Sources: Caitlin Jewitt, FrontloadingHQ, Information Stories
An unusually lengthy early voting interval doubtless performed a task in winnowing down the variety of contests for which candidates might stay viable: The interval from Iowa to South Carolina lasted 41 days, the longest period among the many first to final early states since Nevada. turned an early voting state in 2008. Consequently, Trump might develop into the presumptive nominee earlier than ever on the calendar date, regardless of hardly any states having voted.
Regardless of that prolonged early interval, the 2024 Republican Get together main is also the shortest when it comes to the variety of days within the aggressive interval, though that’s up for debate. Based mostly on formulation by political scientist Caitlin Jewittthe 1992 Democratic contest is the shortest ever, having lasted 39 days to former Senator Paul Tsongas of Massachusetts his marketing campaign suspended and left Arkansas Governor Invoice Clinton as the one viable Democratic contender. However technically the race continued as a result of a candidate who had no likelihood of successful — former California Governor Jerry Brown — stayed in to unfold a message of reform on points like marketing campaign financing. If Haley drops out tonight, the 2024 Republican race would final 41 days — barely longer than the 39-day mark, but additionally arguably shorter as a result of Brown remained a thorn in Clinton’s aspect past in 1992.
—Geoffrey Skelley, 538
South Carolina Major Elections 2024: Dwell Outcomes & Evaluation
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