Global Courant 2023-05-28 09:28:11
As regional geopolitical focus shifts to Taiwan and the Taiwan Strait, it’s easy to overlook the Luzon Strait. Yet it is arguably the most important strategic strait exiting and entering the South China Sea. In addition, it is the increasing focus of competing US and Chinese intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR) missions.
What makes it so important? The answer must be found in the context of strategic plans by both China and the US in case of war.
The Luzon Strait is located between Taiwan and Luzon, the northern part of the Philippine archipelago. It connects the South China Sea to the Western Pacific Ocean. It is important for commercial shipping and cable communications that provide important links between Japan, South Korea and Southeast Asia. Such cables quickly become one security issue in the region.
The South China Sea is a hub of the strategic battle between the US and China for domination of the region, and Washington and Beijing have overlapping and converging strategies to win in a kinetic conflict.
Beijing is developing what the US calls an “access/area denial strategy” designed to control China’s “near seas”, especially the South China Sea, and prevent the entry of US military assets in the event of conflict . The US response is to prepare to cripple China’s command, control, communications, computing and ISR systems.
This is the “point of the spear” for both, and both are trying to dominate on and under China’s nearby seas and their straits—particularly the Luzon Strait and the Bashi Channel within.
For China, the South China Sea has traditionally been the vulnerable underbelly. It also hosts its vital trade routes, especially for oil and gas imports.
Most importantly, the South China Sea provides a relative “haven” for its retaliatory nuclear-powered, nuclear-armed submarines based in Yulin on Hainan. These submarines are the deterrent against a first attack on them – something the US, unlike China, has not denied.
The US wants to deny China this refuge. It uses ISR probes to detect and determine the capabilities of Chinese submarines, as well as track and – in conflict – target them. So in the event of a conflict, China would want to avoid locking its warships, fighter jets, and especially its submarines in the South China Sea, where they can be easily tracked down and destroyed.
Indeed, China would like to avoid this by letting these assets break out into the vast Pacific Ocean.
Submarine access
Other straits bordering the South China Sea, such as the Straits of Malacca, Sunda and Balabac, are too narrow and shallow for submarines to pass undetected. The Taiwan Strait borders and is heavily controlled by both China and Taipei and the US.
This makes the Luzon Strait critical in an all-out war, as the nuclear submarines of both China and the US have a higher chance of passing through undetected. So the Luzon Strait, and in particular the Bashi channelare integrated into the nuclear strategies of both.
The strait is about 250 kilometers wide and contains the Philippine island groups of Batanes and Babuyan that are part of the province of Cagayan. North-south ridges are the prominent topographical features of the Luzon Strait. There are several channels through the ridges, the widest and deepest of which is the Bashi Channel. But all channels are deep enough for submarines to pass through.
The US is already trying to detect and track Chinese nuclear submarines as they enter and exit specially constructed underground home moorings in Yulin. Indeed, this is the mission of many US ISR probes, including the 2001 EP-3 flight that resulted in a collision with a Chinese fighter jet that became a politically dangerous international incident.
So to complete its ISR net enclosing the South China Sea, the US wants military and intelligence control there to put a “stop” in the Luzon Strait. The Bashi channel is central. The US regularly sends anti-submarine maritime patrols and P-8 IRS aircraft across the strait to detect submarines using it.
China is mainly interested in topography, water structure and currents there. So is the US. But China also plans to track down US submarines passing through the strait.
While many of its ISR probes are believed to target Taiwan’s defense assets, this may not be the case, or at least not its entire raison d’être, especially those in southwestern and southeastern Taiwan. Several times these missions even coincided with the passage of US carrier strike groups usually accompanied by submarines.
Monitoring and control of the Luzon Strait could be one of the goals of the new US access to two military bases in Cagayan province bordering the strait. This may well mark the beginning or intensification of a contentious military focus on it. In fact, it may soon be ranked with the Strait of Malacca and Taiwan as tinderboxes for conflict.
If this analysis is correct, it would mean that strategic thinkers in both the US and China are already preparing for conflict — even a nuclear conflict. If so, the conflicts between the US and China in the South China Sea are merely sparring in preparation for a possible existential nuclear battle.
The rival claimants of China and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), particularly the Philippines, must understand this strategic context and how they are included or affected by it and formulate their policies with this in mind.
Similar:
Loading…
