Global Courant
Taipei, Taiwan – Voters have cast their ballots in Taiwan’s closely watched presidential and parliamentary elections. The first results are expected to be announced later on Saturday.
The presidential election is a surprise three-way race between incumbent Vice President William Lai Ching-te of the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP); the former mayor of New Taipei City, Hou Yu-ih from the more conservative Kuomintang (KMT); and third-party candidate Ko Wen-je of the Taiwan People’s Party.
At stake is the future direction of Taiwan’s democracy: a continued push for a higher international profile as a de facto independent state by the DPP; closer ties with China but potentially better economic relations as promised by the KMT; or an untested but new third way between the two sides, as promised by the TPP.
Also at stake is the composition of Taiwan’s unicameral legislature, which consists of 113 members, elected based on geographic constituencies, and a second list based on a party’s vote share. Six seats are reserved for native Taiwanese.
In the last election, the DPP succeeded with a legislative majority, but their victory this time is far from assured thanks to competition from the KMT and TPP in many local races.
About 19.5 million people aged 20 and over were eligible to vote, and based on public transport data, turnout is expected to be high.
Taiwanese must return to the location where their household is registered – usually their place of birth – to vote in person, meaning the run-up to the election could be a busy time for rail service across the island.
On Friday, the Taiwan Railway Administration forecast record sales of 758,000 tickets – more than in previous elections.
According to Brian Hioe, a frequent commentator on Taiwanese politics and founder of New Bloom Magazine, it was a surprising turnaround in a relatively lackluster campaign season focused on domestic issues.
“Shortly before, train ticket sales were not doing so well and there was a sudden upturn,” he said. “I think it shows how quickly things can change in Taiwanese politics.”
“Often it suddenly creates a national sense of foreboding before the elections themselves. People are suddenly concerned about what will happen if candidate X is elected or if the turnout at a rally turns out to be higher than expected,” Hioe also said. “That ensures that people mobilize.”
Hioe said two major events may have scared some voters away from voting this week. The first was Friday’s huge turnout of 350,000 people at a rally for third-party candidate Ko, which showed voters he was a real contender despite his party’s relative inexperience.
The second was former president and KMT member Ma Ying-jeou’s comments this week that Taiwan should trust Chinese President Xi Jinping.
Although Ma has long retired as president, he still has influence within his party and some voters may be alarmed about his power over KMT candidate Hou, Hioe said.
Many Taiwanese are suspicious of Beijing, which claims Taiwan as a province, and want their democracy to remain de facto independent.
Beijing typically relies on a combination of carrot-and-stick strategies to lure voters and also scare them into voting for their favorite candidates at election time – usually someone other than the DPP.
Voters told Al Jazeera that polling stations have been busy since they opened early on Saturday.
Taipei resident Jason Wang said his plan to get to the polls early with his wife and daughter was somewhat deterred by a surprisingly long and varied line at 8 a.m.
‘They weren’t old people, which was surprising. It was a lot of young couples – and I mean people spending their Friday night partying,” he said.
Guava Lai, a young DPP supporter in his 20s, said his social media was full of panicked messages from friends on Friday evening that candidate Ko could win.
“My friends were quite worried, especially the night before. For context, most of my friends would vote for DPP… and then see the news on Friday that Ko Wen-je had so many people and Hou Yu-ih had so many people,” he said. “That was the atmosphere I saw on my social media feed, people feeling anxious and also trying to reassure each other.”
The DPP has been in power for the past eight years under President Tsai Ing-wen.
In a regular election, Taiwan’s two main parties, the KMT and the DPP, should change power, but Ko has disrupted the normal trajectory.
The outspoken former mayor of Taipei is popular with younger voters who say they want something new from the old two-party system.
Among them is 25-year-old Nicky who told Al Jazeera she voted for Ko as she left a polling station at a primary school in Taipei on Saturday. She declined to use her full name, saying she liked Ko’s record as mayor, as well as his can-do attitude and clearer way of speaking.
“He was mayor of Taipei for eight years,” she said. “He can really get things done and he can solve problems. That’s what you want.” Her friends felt the same way, she added.
Nicky was unsure about Ko’s chances of winning, as most older voters prefer Taiwan’s two traditional parties, but she still wanted to show her support.
“I think it’s time for a change,” she said.
Some of her concerns were echoed by Ross Feingold, a lawyer and political analyst from Taipei.
He emphasized that some voters were concerned about issues other than China, including transparency in public offices.
“As in other countries, there are recurring problems with corruption and nepotism led by various political parties in Taiwan, and I think voters here want to know that the person who will lead them for the next four years is an honest man. ,” he told Al Jazeera.
