Global Courant
Both Russia and Ukraine this week warned of the other’s alleged plans to attack the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said so Russia could try to make it seem as if Ukraine were shelling the nuclear power plant, while Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov suggested that “the Kyiv regime” could stage a “catastrophic” provocation there.
The Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs said this on Thursday Moscow would react harshly if such an attack were to happen, while Kyrylo Budanov, Ukraine’s military spy chief, said the threat of a Russian attack is now diminishing.
“The threat is diminishing,” Budanov told Reuters news agency on Thursday, adding that “it has not been eliminated” and would persist as long as Europe’s largest nuclear power plant remains under Russian control.
Plant seized early in the war
The war in Ukraine is approaching its 17-month mark and the factory in Zaporizhzhia has been under Russian control for almost the entire time.
A Russian soldier stands guard at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant in May 2022. (The Associated Press)
Russian forces entered Ukraine on February 24, 2022 and captured the facility barely a week later.
Since then, there have been concerns about a possible nuclear disaster.
Nearby battles
In March 2022, Ukrainian fighters fire a howitzer in the Zaporizhzhia region, just weeks after the start of the war that has now dragged on for more than 16 months. (Stanislav Yurchenko/Reuters)
There have been many reports of shelling in and around the Zaporizhzhia plant over the course of the war – and repeated warnings from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) of the possibility of catastrophe.
More recently, the destruction of the Nova Kakhovka Dam last month and the subsequent draining of the Kakhovka Reservoir left the plant without a source of cooling water. The IAEA says the complex must have enough water from a separate pond to cool the reactors for “several months”.
The wider Zaporizhzhia region is also where part of Ukraine’s long-awaited counter-offensive is taking place. unfolds.
To be prepared
Last week, Ukrainian aid workers held an exercise to prepare for a possible release of radiation from the Zaporizhzhia plant, where six of the country’s fifteen nuclear reactors are located.
A Ukrainian aid worker wearing a radiation protection suit attends training in Zaporizhzhia, Ukraine, late last month. (Evgeny Maloletka/The Associated Press)
In the event of a nuclear disaster, about 300,000 people would be evacuated from the areas closest to the facility, according to the country’s emergency services.
This weekUkraine’s Health Ministry released guidelines to follow in case of emergency and urged residents to pack emergency bags, containing supplies such as face masks and food, wrapped in plastic.
It advised people to pay close attention to officials’ announcements and to follow any instructions.
WATCH: Zaporizhzhia residents are being prepared
Uncertainty about nuclear power plant keeps residents of Zaporizhzhia ready
As Russia and Ukraine accuse each other of planning an attack on the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, the city is watching the news. Some have made plans in case of a mass evacuation, although there is no great hope that anything will happen.
MV Ramana, a professor at the University of British Columbia’s School of Public Policy and Global Affairs, is concerned about the impact of a long war on the people charged with running Zaporizhzhia’s reactors and how that could contribute to the likelihood of a nuclear accident.
Under such a long-term constraint, “the chance of someone making a mistake is not negligible,” he said.
He also wondered what challenges Ukrainian authorities might face in evacuating people from such a disaster in the midst of an ongoing war.
Remote monitoring
The IAEA is closely following developments in Zaporizhzhia. It has stationed officials at the Russian-owned factory, which is still run by Ukrainian personnel who oversee critical cooling systems and other safety features.
Inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) are seen at the Russian-controlled Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant in southern Ukraine on June 15, 2023. (Olga Maltseva/AFP/Getty Images)
IAEA experts did not see any signs of mines or explosives at the site, IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi said in a statement Wednesday – but further access is needed to confirm they are not present.
“As military tensions and activities increase in the region where this large nuclear power plant is located, our experts must be able to verify the facts on the ground,” Grossi said.
Cold shutdown
All six Zaporizhzhia reactors are now in cold shutdown mode to minimize the threat of disaster.
A view of a spent fuel storage yard at the Russian-controlled Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant in southern Ukraine on March 29, 2023. (Andrey Borodulin/AFP/Getty Images)
Ukrainian officials have said the shut down reactors are protected by thick concrete containment domes, and experts have said the plant’s design allows it to withstand barrages.
A Russian attack on the plant, according to the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), “is unlikely to result in the widespread release of significant amounts of radiation”, due to precautions taken by the IAEA.
“An explosion in Zaporizhzhia would spread radiation and create panic, but the actual radiation risk outside the site would be relatively low,” the think tank said. said in a recent reviewadding that the wind could blow some radiation to Russia.
The IISS charged that the most likely disaster scenarios include a Russian-engineered explosion that exposes one of the reactor cores and causes a fire that burns spent fuel, or an explosion with the dry spent fuel on site that would carry the radiation far away via wind. .
None of these scenarios would lead to a disaster on the scale of Chernobyl — which happened in Ukraine — or Fukushima, Japan’s tsunami-ravaged nuclear power plant, it said.
