Global Courant
The video may seem too simple, too understated to highlight a serious international incident in the South China Sea: a quick shot of a diver using a knife to cut a piece of rope underwater.
But that diver was in the Philippine Coast Guard and the rope was part of a seawall placed by Chinese forces to keep Philippine boats away from an area in which they had the legal right to fish. At that point, the Philippines took one of the strongest steps yet in challenging China’s continued territorial claims increasingly closer to the Philippine Islands.
“The barrier posed a danger to shipping, a clear violation of international law,” the Philippines said a statementadding that the action came at the direct orders of President Ferdinand E. Marcos Jr.
Since taking office in June 2022, Mr Marcos has indicated that he wants a stronger foreign policy approach towards China. But so far, those actions have been largely limited to rhetoric, deepening alliances with the United States and other countries, and releasing videos of aggressive Chinese coast guard activities against Philippine ships.
The surprise this time was that Manila took action. There is little doubt that the Philippines is mounting stronger resistance to China’s territorial plans.
While the Biden administration will likely see this as good news, concerns are growing in the region about how China might counter that resistance, and whether there could be a risk of provoking a direct military clash between China , the Philippines and its allies. the US Navy fleet patrols the region.
After the rope was cut and the Philippines lifted the anchor holding it in place, China removed the barrier. On Tuesday, a spokesperson for the Chinese Foreign Ministry abruptly rejected the Philippine statement. “We advise the Philippines not to cause provocation and not to cause trouble,” he said.
Song Zhongping, a commentator in Beijing and a former military officer, said the Philippines was encouraged to break down the barrier “as the United States continues to encourage the Philippines to confront China in the South China Sea.”
“China must take decisive action to end the provocation of the Philippines,” Mr Song said. “We cannot allow the Philippines to commit endless provocations and pose a serious threat to China’s national sovereignty and security.”
China claims 90 percent of the South China Sea, some of which are thousands of kilometers away from the mainland and in the waters around Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei, Indonesia and the Philippines. Over the past decade, China has exerted increasing control over these waters, using two island chains, the Paracels and the Spratlys, to expand its military footprint by building and fortifying outposts and airstrips.
The actions have alarmed much of Asia and the United States, which say they have an interest in preserving freedom of navigation on one of the world’s busiest shipping lanes. China’s military buildup and increasingly aggressive actions by its coast guard and maritime militias have also raised questions about China’s intentions in the region and its willingness to comply with international law and norms.
Tensions are particularly pronounced in the Philippines, where fishermen are prevented from fishing by Chinese vessels and Manila is prevented from fully exploring oil and gas deposits in an area that an international tribunal in The Hague ruled in 2016 as part of the exclusive economic zone of the Philippines.
The anchor that held China’s floating barrier. The Philippines’ breach of the barrier was one of the boldest steps in the context of tensions with China in the South China Sea.Credit…Philippine Coast Guard, via Associated Press
Many analysts say China is likely to stop taking any military action against the Philippines, a treaty ally of the United States, for fear of becoming embroiled in a broader conflict with Washington and other U.S. allies in the region. In August, U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin reaffirmed that a mutual defense treaty with the United States “extends to Philippine public ships, aircraft, and military forces – including those of the Coast Guard – in the Pacific, including in southern China. Sea.”
“If the U.S. has to engage in a military confrontation with China in the South China Sea, you can’t expect the likes of Australia and Japan to just sit there and idle while their U.S. allies fight the Chinese,” Collin said. Koh, a senior fellow at the Institute of Defense and Strategic Studies in Singapore. “They will be involved one way or another. So this is something that, in my opinion, every good Chinese planner will have to take into account.”
Mr Koh said he expects China to increase its presence in the South China Sea, perhaps by sending more ships around disputed areas such as Thitu Island and the Second Thomas Shoal to prevent Filipino fishermen from operating freely and to target maritime law enforcement vessels to block.
Bilahari Kausikan, a former ambassador to Singapore’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, said he believes “Beijing has enough problems at home without wanting to add to them by also confronting the US.”
Mr. Kausikan said “the risk of conflict would be greater” if the Philippines had not removed the barrier, “because the Chinese would be tempted to push the borders even further.”
But Leonardo Cuaresma, president of the New Masinloc Fishermen’s Association in the Philippines, said he was nervous in the community where the barrier was cut about how China might respond.
“Here in Masinloc it is normal to feel fear because if a conflict arises, we will be the first to feel it,” Mr Cuaresma said. “It’s hard because we don’t know if there’s going to be a war or whatever. We are worried.”
Mr Cuaresma said he and his colleagues have not been able to fish in the Scarborough Shoal for years because of China. “As soon as we get close to the entrance to the shoal, they would immediately block us,” he said. “Their smaller boats sailed alongside us and told us, ‘Go away, Filipino.’”
Adding to the high emotions, there are still concerns in Manila about how to deal with China.
Philippine Senate Minority Leader Koko Pimentel told a Senate hearing that he agreed with the Marcos administration’s decision to lift the Chinese barrier. But later, in a text message to a New York Times reporter, he carefully added, “We should avoid conflict as much as possible. Do everything through dialogue and diplomacy. Different positions are a fact of life, and we should be able to navigate through life with this reality.”
Antonio Carpio, a former Associate Justice of the Supreme Court in the Philippines and an expert on the South China Sea, said the Philippines was merely a reflection of what Malaysia and Indonesia did recently when both countries sent their ships into disputed waters , despite threats from China.
“If you stand up for your right and stand your ground, China will do nothing,” he added.
Mr. Carpio said that the international community, more broadly, must pay attention to what is happening in the South China Sea because “what is at stake in Ukraine and in the South China Sea are exactly the same.”
“All countries must oppose this because this is not just an issue for the Philippines, it is about the future of the world,” he said. “If the UN Charter, which banned wars of aggression, is annulled, only nuclear powers will be able to settle disputes according to their dictates. It will be ‘might is right’ again.”
Camille Elemia and Joy Dong contributed reporting.
