Global Courant 2023-05-24 03:51:36
Although the agency was able to rebuild its buying balance in the official market since the second week of May, US$3,361 million left its coffers in the last 30 days
Despite the fact that in the second part of this month, thanks to a slight increase in the supply of foreign currency due to the “dollar soya 3” program and a higher import stock, the Central Bank was able to rebuild its buying position in the official market and has accumulated US$ 196 million in May, its level of gross reserves does not stop falling.
This Tuesday, despite the fact that agricultural exporters liquidated US$66 million and the BCRA was able to keep US$14 million, gross reserves fell another US$155 million, to break the floor of US$33,000 million and total the US$32,907 million at the end of the day. The trickle is constant and accelerated: since last April 24, US$ 3,361 million have already left the coffers of the Central.
Why if the Central Bank buys dollars again, do the reserves keep falling? The reasons that explain the bleeding range from payments to international organizations, withdrawal of deposits in banks, and, the one that the market looks at the most: interventions in the financial segment.
“Reserves continue to fall, which is explained by a drain of dollars that moved from the commercial channel to the financial one,” they pointed out at the LCG consultancy, where they also added. “The few dollars acquired under the Agro Dollar are being consumed in purchases of public securities, in order to maintain intervention in the financial dollar market.”
Since last Thursday the Central Bank surprised the market by choosing to stay out of intervention in the bond market, an operation for which the City estimates that it would have lost nearly US$700 million in one day. The following day, and after the prices of financial dollars have skyrocketed, it reappeared, but with a much more limited intervention than in previous rounds.
Now, to complement this task, the National Securities Commission imposed a new obstacle to the purchase of financial dollars, to “stop the curls” that could be made with certain market prices. The goal seems to “manage scarcity” and slow the trickle of reserves somewhat, until at least the IMF dollars show up.
“The Government continues to adjust the exchange regulations to try to reduce the drain on reserves as much as possible without further adjusting the level of activity through external credit. Along the same lines, the result of the negotiations with the IMF is awaited, where the government tries to part of the disbursements can be used for exchange interventions and thus reach the PASO in a better way”, they indicated in Delphos.
“However, it is likely that the IMF will ask for additional corrections in exchange for this possible easing. Added to this are the political restrictions of an election year, which will force the government into a sinuous balance in the coming months. In the center of All of this is found by the Central Bank with its interventions in multiple markets,” they warned.
With only four wheels left for the end of the third round of the Dollar Soy III program and no news from the Fund for now, the market is concerned about how the dynamics of the reserves will continue as of June. “Previous experiences show that, in the months following the end of the Export Increase Programs, the balances in the official market are again in deficit, which augurs greater difficulties for the BCRA during June and July,” the consultancy said. .
In the market they estimate that the net reserves, that is to say, the “own dollars” of the Central, if the reserve requirements of deposits in dollars of savers, the currency swap with China, the loans of international banks and other obligations of In the short term, they would already be negative by US$ 1.5 billion. The dynamics of reserves puts a cap on the possible pax cambiaria. “The reality is that without net reserves, a surplus of pesos and fewer dollars as a result of the drought, it is not crazy to expect an even higher price,” they said in LCG.
