Global Courant 2023-05-16 23:27:46
Ukraine is about to withdraw from Bakhmut. This could happen any time now, but it needs to happen soon enough before escape routes are closed. Predictions of a timetable vary, but the Ukrainians should evacuate Bakhmut by the weekend at the latest, if they can.
A few roads are still open to leave the city, partially secured by Ukrainian army attacks on the city’s flanks. But these roads and fields will remain unavailable as Wagner’s troops rush in.
On Monday night, Wagner’s forces stormed and took the two most fortified and defensible parts of the city’s Citadel area – pushing the Ukrainians back to the last part of the Citadel, which is mostly low-rise. These will be difficult to hold.
Fighting is also raging around part of the northwestern sector of the city, where the Ukrainians are holding out at the children’s hospital (evacuated from patients long ago). The goal of the Ukrainian force is to hold this area to keep the road out of the city open in that direction and to prevent Wagner forces from taking over the entire Citadel too quickly.
The Ukrainians could negotiate a safe withdrawal with the Russians, but President Volodmyr Zelensky is unlikely to allow it. In addition, the so-called leaks about Wagner boss Yevgeny Prigozhin’s communications with Ukrainian intelligence – though he has vehemently denied them – make it nearly impossible for the Wagners to make deals with their Ukrainian enemies.
Russian oligarch Yevgeny Prigozhin rolls out his Wagner recruiting pitch for convicted criminals. Image: screenshot / YouTube
The battle of Bakhmut is Zelensky’s battle, as he demanded that his army stay there and fight, even after being told by his commanders that it was too costly and not worth suffering unnecessary losses. The battle has been raging for eight or nine months and to some extent has caused heavy casualties on both sides. Recently, his top commanders have declared that the fight was worth it. It is likely that Zelensky demanded these statements of support.
The big question is: what next? The Russians could use their forces to move towards Chasiv Yar and push the Ukrainian army back to the Dnieper River. The Dnieper is absolutely strategic for Ukraine. If the Russians can reach its shores, Ukraine will be cut in half.
The Ukrainians need to be careful in mounting their planned but not yet executed major offensive, because leaving their back door open will leave the Russians with enough troops to tackle an offensive and push through to Chasiv Yar and beyond. There is a danger that the Ukrainian army will be trapped from the north and south and will not be able to achieve a breakthrough that would justify attempting an offensive against the Kherson region or the Zaporizhia region or even Crimea.
The US and NATO response is to stuff Ukraine with tons of modern weapons, some of which are blown up by the Russians before they ever get anywhere near a battlefield. But manpower remains Ukraine’s Achilles’ heel. It is becoming increasingly difficult for Ukraine to employ soldiers or young dragoons. This will only increase when the full impact of the Bakhmut defeat is known to the Ukrainian public.
Commander-in-Chief Valery Zaluzhny (right) with Colonel General Aleksandr Syrskyi. Photo: Ukrainian Armed Forces
The leadership of the Ukrainian army also has doubts. The top leader, General Valery Zaluzhny, seems to have disappeared. And so is General Aleksandr Syrskyi, commander of the Ukrainian ground forces. There are no answers, but rumors abound.
Rumor has it that Zelensky went on his European tour while the military opposition was being wiped out. Another is that these two generals were involved in corruption and were caught. A third rumor has it that both were killed in a missile strike.
If the planned offensive is delayed because the army leaders have been killed for whatever reason, Zelensky will face overwhelming problems.
A major issue in understanding the war in Ukraine is the reliability of sources of information, a problem related to both sides specializing in disinformation and fake news. That said, the information coming out of Bakhmut so far is confirmed. The rumors about the fate of the generals of Ukraine are not confirmed.
Stephen Bryen is a senior fellow at the Center for Security Policy and the Yorktown Institute. This article was originally publishd about his substack, weapons and strategy. Global Courant republishes it with permission.
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