Global Courant
As a consequence of the Azerbaijani attack on the Armenians of Nagorno-Karabakh September 19 and the forced exodus that followed will soon leave this region without Armenians – for the first time in more than two millennia.
This was a tragedy that could have been prevented. The New York Times recently wrote about what is happening now in Nagorno-Karabakh that “almost no one saw it coming.” Nothing could be more wrong. Armenians, as well as those who have followed the conflict, have long warned that this was coming.
The global community and its institutions, including the EU, have arguably let Azerbaijan get away with its military adventures, which have only emboldened the country.
In the summer of 2022, the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, visited Baku and concluded an agreement on gas supplies from Azerbaijan to Europe. Since then, she has repeatedly praised the country as the EU’s “reliable energy partner.”
Strengthened by this support, a few months later Azerbaijan launched an attack, not on Nagorno-Karabakh, but on various areas in Armenia itself. Since then, Azerbaijan has occupied more than 100 square kilometers of Armenia’s undisputed and internationally recognized territory.
The EU could only call for restraint and was relieved when the fighting stopped after two days.
Global passivity
In December 2022, Azerbaijan began a blockade of the Lachin corridor, the only link between Nagorno-Karabakh and Armenia. In February, the International Court of Justice in The Hague issued a ruling binding order that Azerbaijan should immediately allow the unhindered movement of people and goods along the corridor. Azerbaijan ignored this.
Over the summer, the situation worsened for Nagorno-Karabakh’s 120,000 residents, with acute shortages of food, gasoline and medicine. Malnutrition was widespread. The situation became so serious that several organizations warned of a possible genocide.
In early August, Luis Moreno-Ocampo, a former prosecutor at the International Criminal Court, issued an order opinion of an expertdeclaring that what Azerbaijan did “must be considered a genocide under Article II, (c) of the Genocide Convention.”
The article in question gives one definition of genocide as: “The deliberate imposition on the group of conditions of life intended to bring about its physical destruction in whole or in part.”
During the more than nine months that the blockade lasted, Western leaders condemned it and demanded that Azerbaijan lift it. But no violent measures were put behind this demand and there were no sanctions or even threats of sanctions.
The government of Azerbaijan understood the signals. You can impose a humanitarian crisis on more than 100,000 people, even bordering on genocide, without receiving anything other than verbal condemnations.
Ethnic cleansing
After the latest escalation, several prominent figures are present EU representatives have once again condemned the use of violence and made several calls. It is as if they do not see what awaits them: the aggressive plans of authoritarian states are not stopped by condemnations and appeals. Much stricter measures are needed.
The government that led what Armenia called Artsakh, or the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic, has now collapsed. The president, Samvel Shahramanyan, has declared that the state will formally exist dissolved At the end of this year. The UN has estimated that 88,000 of the 120,000 inhabitants have already fled to Armenia.
Azerbaijan claims they were not forced to do so, but fled voluntarily. On the surface, this is correct, as no Azerbaijani soldier forcibly removed them.
But they don’t flee voluntarily. Instead, they have found themselves in a situation where they have no other choice. In just over thirty years, Azerbaijan has attacked them four times.
In 2020, many of them spent weeks in bomb shelters in Azerbaijan attacked with missiles and drones. They endured this summer acutely shortages of food and medicine as a result of the illegal blockade.
The last straw was the 24-hour bombardment on September 19, which ultimately drove the ethnic Armenian population from their homes. I therefore believe it is correct to call this ethnic cleansing.
Five days before the Azerbaijani attack on the enclave, a representative of the US government said that the US would not tolerate the ethnic cleansing of Nagorno-Karabakh. Now it has happened and Washington appears to be tolerating it, if the lack of sanctions against Azerbaijan is any indication.
It’s not over yet
There is reason to remain concerned about Azerbaijan’s plans. After the suppression of the Karabakh Armenians, the President of Azerbaijan, Ilham Aliyev, reiterated what he said. previously said that he sees what he calls ‘Western Armenia’ as historical Azerbaijani territory that Azerbaijan therefore has the right to reclaim.
Map of the region showing the concept of the ‘Zanzegur corridor’ that would cross the southernmost region of Armenia to connect Azerbaijan with Nakhchivan, and Turkey via the Armenian province of Syunik with the rest of the Turkic world. Mapeh/Wikimedia Commons, CC BY NC
By this he means Armenia. He has the full support of Turkey in these plans. The first target will be the southern part of Armenia, Syunik province, which Azerbaijan calls Zangezur.
Decisive action from the West is needed to ensure that the aggressive Azerbaijani regime does not embark on new military adventures in its current storm of victory. The EU could introduce sanctions against this regime, something more than sixty MEPs from different party groups have already done recently called for.
Azerbaijan’s attack on Nagorno-Karabakh must have consequences. If the Baku regime gets away with this with impunity, it will be inspired to continue its aggression against the Armenians. This would be one dangerous signal to leaders of other authoritarian states.
The lesson of the tragedy now unfolding in Nagorno-Karabakh is that verbal condemnations and appeals cannot stop the aggression of authoritarian states. Only strict measures can achieve this.
Svante Lundgren is a researcher, Lund University
This article is republished from The conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.
Similar:
Loading…
