Global Courant
The US may be reconsidering the redeployment of nuclear-tipped and submarine-launched cruise missiles, possibly caused by China’s and Russia’s growing nuclear arsenals and deficiencies in US conventional deterrence capabilities.
Defense News reported this this month that House Republicans on the U.S. Armed Services Committee voted along party lines to amend the fiscal National Defense Authorization Act of 2024 to create a record-breaking program for the sea-launched nuclear cruise missile (SLCM-N) program.
The report notes that the House’s FY24 defense authorization bill will provide US$196 million for further development of SLCM-N and will be voted on the full floor in early July.
“The nuclear threat environment is rapidly changing… China’s arsenal is expanding dramatically and Russia’s arsenal continues to grow. We need to change our nuclear stance,” said Congressman Doug Lamborn, chairman of the Subcommittee on Strategic Forces.
Reuters reported this in October 2022 that the Biden administration said the SLCM-N was unnecessary and would be canceled since the US already had the means to discourage limited nuclear use. Critics believed the move would undermine the US’s deterrent stance and send the wrong signal to China and Russia.
In line with the position of the Biden administration, the Notes Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation that SLCM-Ns weaken the conventional combat capabilities of the US Navy, potentially diverting the already overstretched US submarine force into nuclear deterrent roles.
The center’s report notes that some U.S. allies that ban nuclear weapons on their territory, such as Japan and New Zealand, may ban U.S. ships carrying nuclear weapons from docking in their ports or participating in joint exercises, thereby preventing the U.S. are forced to return nuclear weapons to allies who do not currently harbor them or do not pick up such weapons before venturing into deployment.
The Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation also notes that the SLCM-N would be a redundant capability since the US already has other low-yield nuclear options, such as the B61 gravity bomb, the W80-equipped air-launched cruise missile and the W76-2 sea-launched ballistic missile.
However, proponents of SLCM-N point to a deterrence gap between the US and its regional adversaries and near-competitors, requiring the controversial program to be revived.
Global Courant noted in October 2022 that while the US has deployed the SLCM-N on surface ships and submarines, they discontinued that capability at the end of the previous Cold War. Opponents China and Russia, on the other hand, have continued to modernize their respective nuclear arsenals.
China has plans to expand its nuclear arsenal. Photo: Facebook
While the US nuclear arsenal at sea now consists only of strategic submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), China and Russia have continued to develop low-yield tactical nuclear weapons that are below the threshold of strategic nuclear weapons and serve as a backstop for conventional military operations.
Its unique focus on strategic-level deterrence may have opened a deterrence gap between the US and its close rivals, with the SLCM-N providing a tactical nuclear strike capability that matches the tactical nuclear weapons of China and Russia.
The push to revive the SLCM-N may also point to greater weaknesses in US conventional deterrence, with tactical nuclear weapons making up for conventional capability gaps.
Global Courant reported in March 2023 that China had overtaken the US in the development of new types of military explosives, especially CL-20, which was first developed in the 1980s and is 40% more powerful than the RDX or HMX that have been used since the World War II in US ammunition. II.
While China started production of CL-20 in 2011 and has been mass-producing the explosive ever since, the US is still using dated World War II methods, which cannot be used to make CL-20, as production of that explosive is only possible in small batches. in chemical reactors.
While the US can make 10 tons of CL-20 with its current stockpile of chemical precursors, it will take the US three to five years to scale production to 1,000 tons per year.
In an unforeseen scenario in Taiwan, the US could face large numbers of Chinese munitions, some of which have greater power and range than any of the conventional US arsenal. Delays in critical US weapons programs may also have contributed to Republican push to consider SLCM-N realignment.
This month, Global Courant reported significant delays in the LGM-35A Sentinel intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) and Zumwalt-class destroyer programs, suggesting deeper institutional problems with profound capability implications.
The LGM-35A Sentinel program faces delays due to staff shortages, approval processing delays, classified information technology infrastructure challenges, and technology maturity issues.
Similarly, concerns over the maturity of hypersonic technology have delayed the integration of the Conventional Prompt Strike (CPS) weapon on Zumwalt-class destroyers, pushing the reconfigured type’s reshuffle to 2025.
However, the strategic idea that tactical nuclear weapons such as SLCM-N can compensate for conventional deterrence shortfalls may be catastrophically flawed.
Concept art of a US Zumwalt-class destroyer firing hypersonic missiles. Image: Twitter
Nina Tannenwald notes in a March 2022 article for Scientific American that tactical nuclear weapons exist because both sides fear that their very destructiveness would prevent them from using their weapons for the destruction of the great city.
By making nuclear weapons smaller and more precisely aimed, she writes, their use becomes more conceivable. Paradoxically, this makes the deterrent threats more credible, but it also makes the weapons more tempting to use first, rather than just retaliation.
Tannenwald notes that even limited use of tactical nuclear weapons can cause massive destruction, terrible human suffering and long-lasting environmental damage, quickly escalating into full-scale nuclear war.
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