Global Courant
When Ukraine’s counter-offensive got under way, there were credible reports advance into territory previously occupied by Russian troops. Each day brings news of small profits, a village liberated here and a village liberated there.
But Ukraine’s military commanders will know that much tougher tests are yet to come. Recently published satellite images reveal the extent of Russia’s defense lines – which are significant, the result of months of planning and preparation for the counter-offensive.
The big question is whether their planners can use their eyes in the sky to formulate a strategy.
Ukraine has no satellites of its own, but nevertheless space technology has played a key role in supporting its operations. When the invasion began, Ukraine was quick to respond call for help in tracking and targeting Russian forces. Multiple commercial satellite providers have since volunteered to help.
Ukraine’s ability to enlist the help of commercial satellites is believed to have gave them an edge about the series of Russia purpose-built military satellites. Russian military satellites are made for battlefield applications and their cameras lack the resolution of those used for industrial purposes.
Russian equipment is also less effective in handling cloudiness and darkness. As a result, Russian troops can see less of the battlefield.
Using space resources has many advantages, not least being able to see what is happening. Ukrainian troops can take advantage of this high-resolution images of events on the ground, often in near real time.
When on the defensive, this has allowed Ukraine to react quickly to Russian actions, monitor their troop movements and give time to react to any attempted advance.
Satellites do too helped uncover Russian problems with logistics, as well as tracing the construction of new military infrastructure.
Navigating the Russian defenses
With Ukrainian forces advancing, satellite imagery could once again play a central role. As satellite images have revealed, Russia has an extensive network of trenches, fortifications and minefieldsreinforced around areas of particular strategic importance.
If Ukraine wants to reach its goal Russia’s land bridge to Crimea can be cut, it will have to deal with these formidable defenses.
Publicly available images show how the Russian defenses are constructed. Russian engineering represents one series of challenges that will be difficult to overcome.
But, just as importantly, satellites provide a picture of what is happening behind the lines, allowing strikes against headquarters and logistics hubs. This was a key factor in preparing for Ukraine’s successful counter-offensives last fall.
Given the situation on the ground, a likely Ukrainian approach is to continue to exploit their intelligence advantage by probing these defenses with repeated feints and forcing Russian forces to respond.
Having a clear picture of Russia’s defensive setup will give Kiev commanders in the field both important insights into Russia’s strategy and crucial real-time information on where and when to launch the strikes.
Map showing the approximate start and end points of a 40-mile Russian military convoy en route to Kiev, Ukraine, March 1, 2022. Satellite imagery of the convoy in this map was provided by Maxar Technologies. Image: Associated Press/Alamy Stock Photo via The Conversation
Satellite imagery also offers a range of other insights relevant to the conflict and ultimately its aftermath. Footage available to the public has proven useful in tackling disinformation and shaping public perceptions of the conflict. These images will also deliver essential evidence of war crimes when the conflict ends.
War in space
Currently, Ukraine’s access to commercial satellites gives it an advantage over Russia — not just in imagery, but in other areas such as communications and targeting. Of course, Russia wants to address this advantage.
Russia is not alone hacked in western satellites, but threatened to do so shoot them. Although it certainly has the ability to disrupt as well as even destroy space-based assets, the situation is too complex for a direct approach.
The satellites in question are not just commercial assets, they do not belong to Ukraine. Any attack risks extending the conflict.
Moscow has emphasized that represent commercial satellites legitimate goalsbut a physical attack on these assets would be unparalleled. It would open up Russian space infrastructure to attack in response. In addition, this could potentially set Russia on course for direct conflict with the US and other countries.
But this in itself raises an important problem. access to this kind power is expensiveand Ukraine depends on partners like the US to pay for the use of commercial space platforms. The Kremlin can hope it can continue its strategy of trying to worsen relations between Ukraine and its Western allies.
Russia may also attempt to electronically block or disrupt satellites where possible. Although Russia has limitations, it is able to adapt and satellite operators will have to remain vigilant.
Write in the Financial Times newspaper late last year, former NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen wrote:
This is the first major conflict where both sides rely heavily on space-based capabilities. It won’t be the last.
The use of satellites and GPS technology to locate targets has shown the importance of this technology. But it is also vulnerable, because there are anti-satellite actions integrated into the tactical battlefield.
Military planners will increasingly focus on managing, developing and protecting space technology.
Christopher Morris is Teaching Fellow, School of Strategy, Marketing and Innovation, University of Portsmouth
This article has been republished from The conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.
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