Global Courant
SUBSCRIBERS EXCLUSIVE
Whoever wins the election, everyone aims to honest the value of the dollar and narrow the gap.
The result of a survey on who could win the PASO next August 13 fairly faithfully reflects the other side of the uncertainty in the financial market.
Dollar, stocks, bonds and interest rates move to the beat of doubts about the present and future of the exchange rate, which plays an increasingly prominent role in the “hold on” plan of Minister Sergio Massa.
The survey in question, prepared by Aresco for Federico Aurelio, maintains that the inmates will be won by Together for Change and that in second place there could be a tie between the Frente de Todos and Libertad Avanza by Javier Milei.
Voting intentions for president are: Patricia Bullrich, 14.7%; Horacio Rodríguez Larreta, 14.4%, with which JxC would obtain 29.1%.
In the Front of All (obviously assuming that there is a STEP to define the candidate and that, therefore, Sergio Massa decides not to be a candidate) Wado de Pedro would have 15.8% and Daniel Scioli, 11.6%, which together would give the 27.4%.
Javier Milei would be the individual candidate with the most votes, with 27.6%, in a virtual tie with the FdT.
Patricia Bullrich has been saying that if she wins, she will unfold the exchange market (controlled commercial dollar and a free financial one) and that the elimination of the exchange trap must be immediate to allow the entry of capital.
On Milei’s side, there are two messages on the exchange issue: “we are going to set fire to the Central Bank” and implement an intensive dollarization of the economy as a way to combat inflation.
From the Frente de Todos, Wado de Pedro’s proposal goes through the expansion of internal consumption based on the fact that consumption represents 71% of the economy and that the State will obtain the dollars to finance the consumption of the increase in exports.
Unfolding the exchange market, eliminating the stocks, dollarizing, increasing exports in a context characterized by inflation above 100% raises the need to have a higher exchange rate that allows reducing the exchange gap that today acts as a great brake for the market.
With the wholesale dollar at $245 and cash with settlement at $500, it is easy to guess which dollar importers would prefer to pay -if the Central Bank sold them- and which one exporters would receive, with the aggravating circumstance that, on top of that, withholdings apply on the lowest exchange rate.
Economists say that a devaluation of the peso of a certain magnitude against the official dollar will be inexorable when the next government applies a sustainable anti-inflation plan, but they also recognize that Sergio Massa must avoid an exchange jump until the change of government so as not to fall into a hyperinflation.
The stocks harden practically every week (the provinces must refinance 60% of their external obligations on their own, arrears in payments accumulate, etc.) and the only gush of financing would be coming from the use of the China swap to pay in yuan imports from that country.
On June 21 and 22, the Government must pay US$ 2,682 million to the IMF and Massa is still negotiating with the organization to advance the funds to be able to do so without having to resort to reserves. Where would they come from?
The latest Eco Go report by the economist Marina dal Poggetto maintains that since the end of April the Central Bank has used US$ 980 million of the reserves to buy bonds “and, simultaneously, sell bonds in pesos for almost US$ 4,000 million nominal to intervene in free dollars”.
In addition, he says, “since they began to be released on March 7, private deposits in dollars have accumulated a drop of US$1.1 billion over a stock of US$15.28 billion. part of gross reserves.
65% of private deposits are from individuals and 30% from companies. In turn, among retail deposits, 31% correspond to accounts of less than US$10,000 and 52% to deposits of less than US$30,000.
In a context in which the BCRA’s net reserves are negative by US$1.2 billion, the evolution of deposits in dollars becomes a piece of information to watch closely.
