World Courant
At a time after we are all inundated with conflicting polls and statistical tapes, Donald Trump’s marketing campaign is extraordinarily assured.
The Kamala Harris operation additionally sees motive for optimism, with information of late deciders taking the plunge by greater than 10%. However she nonetheless casts herself because the underdog. Her ‘SNL’ look does not change that; Nor does Trump say that RFK’s plan to take away fluoride from water, a significant public well being advance, “sounds good to me.”
Most media individuals, each publicly and privately, consider Trump will win whilst anti-Trumpers beg their followers to vote for the VP — like MSNBC’s Nicolle Wallace asking her ex-boss George W. Bush to publicly out Harris to assist.
The climax of the marketing campaign appears to be constructed round a yawning gender hole: Kamala is doing a lot better amongst girls and Trump a lot better amongst males.
THE ‘WASTE’ CAMPAIGN: WHY ERRORS AND DISTRACTIONS CAN TIP THE OUTCOME
Former President Trump and Vice President Harris are headed for a photograph end on Election Day — though morale is outwardly a lot greater in a single camp than the opposite. (AP)
The Trump camp’s place is that registration numbers favor Republicans, based mostly on mail-in voting, within the battleground states that may determine the race. Almost half the nation has already voted.
Take the essential commonwealth of Pennsylvania. In 2020, Democrats had a 7.5% lead, and that has now shrunk to a three-point lead.
Furthermore, solely 39% of Democrats who’ve voted there thus far are males, in comparison with 49% amongst Republicans.
Democratic strategist Tom Bonier, showing on MSNBC, says the Pennsylvania voters is way more Republican and male than final time.
Harris wants an enormous turnout in Philadelphia to hold the state, and quite a few information reviews say she remains to be struggling to win over some black males.
In Wisconsin, Trump World’s view is that in-person voting (which leans in favor of the previous president) outweighs mail-in ballots (which lean Democratic). Trump’s energy lies amongst male, white and rural voters. So, as within the case of Philly, Harris must do very effectively in Milwaukee and Madison to hold the state.
RACIST TALK AT MARS TRUMP’S RALLY MESSAGE, BUT HE SCORED ON JOE ROGAN PODCAST
Michigan, which Rep. Debbie Dingell just lately instructed me is a large number, stays a thriller as a result of it does not hold social gathering registration. So the ball recreation there may rely upon how effectively Harris does in Detroit.
The Trump camp sees related features in swing states like Georgia and North Carolina, the place public opinion polls are shut however can be a taller problem for a Harris victory. In actuality, the elections are turning towards the three Blue Wall states.
Possibly Harris ought to have picked Josh Shapiro?
Former President Donald Trump speaks throughout a marketing campaign rally in Lititz, Pennsylvania, on Sunday, November 3. The Trump marketing campaign seems assured of a victory based mostly on early in-person votes considerably exceeding mail-in ballots — which skew closely Democratic. areas. (AP/Matt Rourke)
In a single main state after one other, native Black leaders say they’re involved about warning indicators of their communities:
Politico: “Town of Milwaukee trails the remainder of the state by about 7 %, each within the variety of returns and in whole registered attendance. It is a warning signal, even some Democrats say privately, for Harris as her marketing campaign appears to run up the rating with city and suburban voters to comb Wisconsin’s rural counties.”
Capital B, Atlanta: Black voter turnout in Georgia “has dropped from over 29 %” on the primary day of early voting “to about 25 %… That is the dangerous information for Harris…
TRUMP IS ‘RISING’ WHILE KAMALA HARRIS ‘INACTIVE’: CLAY TRAVIS
“Elected leaders and political observers say Democrats searching for a assured victory in statewide workplace races in Georgia usually want to achieve 30 % black turnout.”
Charlotte Observer: “As of Wednesday, black voters had solid 207,000 fewer votes in comparison with 4 years in the past — a drop of practically 40 %.”
“I am involved in regards to the turnout in Detroit. I believe it is actual,” Jamal Simmons, a former Harris aide, instructed ABC.
Democratic presidential candidate Vice President Kamala Harris speaks to reporters after talking throughout a church service on the Higher Emmanuel Institutional Church of God in Christ, Sunday, Nov. 3, 2024, in Detroit. Former Harris surrogate Jamal Simmons instructed ABC he’s “involved in regards to the turnout” within the Motor Metropolis. (AP Picture/Jacquelyn Martin)
A sunnier view is obtainable by this Politico piece, stating that public opinion polls seem like underestimating Harris’ assist.
The story says that “shy Trump voters” — who do not need to inform pollsters who they assist — can be a factor of the previous, given the aggressive nature of his marketing campaign.
As a substitute, many “forgotten” Harris voters are being missed within the polls, particularly Republicans annoyed with their very own social gathering: Nikki Haley voters.
SUBSCRIBE TO HOWIE’S MEDIA BUZZMETER PODCAST, A RIFF ON THE HOTTEST STORIES OF THE DAY
Citing a nationwide survey, Politico says 66% of those that voted for Haley within the 2016 main supported Trump, right down to 59% 4 years in the past and an estimated 45% this time. “In the meantime, their assist for the Democratic presidential candidate has practically tripled, from simply 13 % who supported Hillary Clinton in 2016 to 36 % who stated they might vote for Kamala Harris.”
To which I say: who the hell is aware of?
We’re now on the level earlier than tomorrow’s election the place pollsters are analyzing the polls to determine which of them are off. And – right here comes the cliché – all of it depends upon the turnout. Regardless of elevating $1 billion, her candidacy is not legitimate if a few of Harris’ potential supporters keep residence.
CLICK HERE TO DOWNLOAD THE FOX NEWS APP
The situations favored by the Trump workforce rely largely on social gathering registration, moderately than on polls which have missed their mark over the previous two cycles.
That explains why the previous president is extra assured even when he asks his advisers in the event that they actually consider he’ll win.
Howard Kurtz is the host of FOX Information Channel MediaBuzz (Sunday 11am – 12pm ET). Primarily based in Washington, DC, he joined the community in July 2013 and seems usually Particular report with Bret Baier and different applications.
