Global Courant
Satellite images show that Russia is now painting the silhouettes of the Tu-95MS “Bear-H” strategic bombers in parking lot cladding at its main bomber base, Engels Air Base, also known as Engels-2. The base has been attacked repeatedly in the past year, and as Ukraine’s weapons capabilities evolve rapidly, so does its ability to strike deep into Russia using local sabotage and drone strike teams.
Satellite images from Planet Labs, obtained by The War Zone and taken on September 29, show the two-dimensional decoys adorned on Engels’ tarmac – an almost ‘copy-paste’ of the four-engine bomber’s distinctive planform down to the black-painted cockpit area . A second painted decoy appears partially complete next to the completed one. It’s worth noting that it’s possible this is some sort of stealthy cloth/canvas or other attractant, but it has little to no vertical dimensions so paint is very likely.
PHOTO © 2023 PLANET LABS INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. REPRINTED WITH PERMISSION
What’s also interesting is that the finished, painted-on decoy has bands that span the center wing and fuselage section, just like the real Tu-95 to its left. This has clearly been added for realism in the hope that the decoy will prove more convincing, as the tires are now a common countermeasure used by some Russian Air Force aircraft while parked.
Russian Su-34 fighter jet protected with car tires on top against kamikaze UAV strikes after Tu-160 & Tu-95 strategic bombers at Engels Air Base.
Fighter Bomber claims this practice is now being applied in all over Russia. pic.twitter.com/kpKebcXJ8G
— Clash Report (@clashreport) September 8, 2023
The painted decoys can have a number of purposes. The first is probably to fool satellites and essentially disrupt all Ukrainian strike operations ‘left of launch’ (before they are even executed) by providing flawed targeting data. But this clearly won’t work, as even limited high-resolution commercial satellite imagery can clearly distinguish between the silhouettes and real aircraft. Using multiple intelligence sources, such as synthetic aperture radar (SAR) satellite imagery (also commercially available), would make it clear that the target is not a three-dimensional object. Still, the tactic could work with low-resolution imaging satellites, and we’ve seen similar applications in the past. In other words, painting fake silhouettes of driveways isn’t new, it’s just much less relevant than it was not so long ago. Yet it is not the case that Russia is not investing in outdated countermeasures to a confusing degree.
It may also be hoped that the ‘false bears’ will confuse drone operators carrying out local attacks, but in reality that seems like a long reach. Still, such attacks would ostensibly take place at night and in otherwise poor visibility to limit detection, and distinguishing real bombers from fake bombers with sensors in low light can be more challenging. The use of various paints with infrared reflecting or absorbing properties can also be used to maximize the effect of the countermeasure. In August, Ukrainian drone operators destroyed an Il-76 “Candid” heavy cargo plane and a Tu-22M “Backfire” bomber in localized drone attacks.
First pictures have emerged regarding the Ukrainian drone attack in the Soltsy-2 airbase. The Russian MoD initially claimed that one plane was only “damaged”, but pictures of this Tupolev Tu-22M3 speak a different language.
Source: https://t.co/Tlec0Df7TY#Russia #Ukraine… https://t.co/fL2E1aGW7a pic.twitter.com/ip4sOE69eT
— (((Tendar))) (@Tendar) August 20, 2023
It’s possible that the painted bears, like the tapes, are aimed at confusing the infrared sensors on standoff weapons, such as cruise missiles, that use autonomous image matching. How effective that might be is unclear, especially considering that this would be a two-dimensional object that wouldn’t benefit from the same decoy effects when viewed from various shallower angles than directly overhead.
The Tu-95 fleet, along with Russian Long Range Aviation’s Tu-160 “Blackjack” and Tu-22M Backfire bombers, have launched hundreds of cruise missiles as workhorses of Moscow’s air campaign against targets deep in Ukraine.
Via Royal Air Force
They are also extremely valuable and virtually impossible to replace. Russian operational doctrine also means that there are few hangars at bomber bases where these aircraft can be hidden. As such, they are exposed to the elements and exposed to targeted attacks and subsequent destruction via air strikes.
These aircraft require a lot of work and have to go through various maintenance intervals. There is nowhere to hide them and they cannot be flown out in this state. There are not mass Tu-95s laying around there for decoys. They are vulnerable, even more when deep work…
— Tyler Rogoway (@Aviation_Intel) September 8, 2023
So it makes sense that Russia would take additional steps, however fleeting, to limit the bombers’ potential exposure on the ground. Last month it was tires. This month it is painting Tu-95 silhouettes on the tarmac.
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