Global Courant
After months of speculation about when it would begin and what its objectives would be, Ukraine’s long-awaited counter-offensive began in early June.
It took Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky several days acknowledge on 10 June that the counter-offensive had actually begunalthough it was clear from Russian media that the first phase had started days earlier.
One of the reasons the counter-offensive was announced with little fanfare was that it probably did not go according to plan. Initial Ukrainian losses were heavy and for little apparent gain. The Ukrainian forces may have initially been looking for significant weaknesses in the Russian lines, but they failed to find them.
Russian sources quickly acknowledged that the fighting was tough – as it remains. The counteroffensive may still have a lot of power, but tries to present it as if it has only just begun are certainly misleading.
Significant losses
Ukraine amassed a significant amount Western supplied equipment and large numbers of troops for this counteroffensive. A significant portion of this has certainly already been committed. The losses have been significant.
The Russian Ministry of Defense was quick to act photographs of disabled western armored fighting vehicles to emphasize that Western equipment is far from foolproof. Such losses were quickly confirmed by Western sources and are far from exceptional.
This is evident after weeks of fighting earlier optimistic expectations on the success of this counter-offensive is unlikely. At the same time, Ukrainian and Western euphoria about what was commonly seen as a mutiny or coup attempt by the Wagner Group in Russia was short-lived.
Yevgeny PrigozhinUkraine’s failed actions have not given Ukraine the battlefield advantages it hoped for.
Yevgeny Prigozhin, the owner of the Wagner Group military company, sits in a military vehicle and poses for a selfie with a local citizen on a street in Rostov-on-Don, Russia, on June 24 before ordering his troops to fuses. march to Moscow and retreat to field camps in Ukraine, where they fought alongside Russian troops. Photo: AP via The Conversation
As many observers predicted, much of Ukraine’s effort is spent trying to do just that break through Russian lines to reach the Sea of Azov in the southeast. This would cut off the land route from Russia to Crimea. A problem for the Ukrainian armed forces is that what seemed like a good idea to them was also expected by the Russian side.
Fighting continues in the Bakhmut region
Some Ukrainian effort is also being made in the Bakhmut region. In this area, Ukrainian troops appear to be trying to reverse the hard-won Russian gains of recent months, with local success.
While Ukraine was able to launch two successful ones counterattacks in Kharkiv and Kherson regions in 2022 in which considerable territory was recaptured, those counter-attacks were launched under very different circumstances than now.
In both cases, Russian forces chose to retreat despite Ukrainian counter-attacks – where they are now dug in and holding their own.
The Russian army is much larger than in the fall of 2022 – more than Since September last year, 300,000 Russian troops have been mobilized.
While Russian forces were caught off guard and lacked the resources to face counter-attacks in 2022, they are ready this time. Russian troops have had months sometimes thoroughly prepare elaborate defensive positions.
Going on the defensive also has the benefit for the Russian Armed Forces of mitigating some of the supply problems they faced in 2022. Russian troops have also made good use of it equipment that is considered obsolete in the Westbut that still has a lot of value in the right setting.
The Russian army has adapted
The Russian military certainly has learned and adapted to the nature of the war and the Ukrainian armed forces since 2022. For example, Russian forces have taken measures to reduce the heat signature of armored vehicles and their vulnerability to Ukrainian anti-tank weapons.
Finally, the Russian people – and the military that supports them – have largely bowed down in anticipation of a protracted war. Many Russians seem to feel that Russia has little choice but to fight onWhere what the West and Ukraine are asking for which is basically a total Russian defeat, no meaningful negotiations. I personally know many such Russians.
A Russian military graduate dances with a young woman in a park in Voronezh, Russia, on June 25. Despite heavy losses in the war with Ukraine, most Russians seem to support the continuation of the conflict. Photo: AP via The Conversation/Arik Kilanyants
There is strong evidence that the Wagner Group’s recent mutiny or attempted coup d’état was more imminent struggle for power within the Russian military leadership and how the war should be prosecuted, not whether it should be continued. Nevertheless, Prigozhin’s short-lived mutiny was clearly a great embarrassment to Vladimir Putin’s government.
The Ukrainian armed forces certainly have motivated troops and considerable amounts of Western equipment. But the Ukrainian armed forces don’t have the kind of air supremacy to allow the kind of advance on the ground crucial during the Gulf Wars of 1991 and 2003, where Western weapons were used with devastating effect.
A few dozen Western F-16s probably wouldn’t change the situation in the skies for Ukraine — Russian air defense is still among the best in the world.
Heavy losses on both sides
The Ukrainian armed forces also do not have unlimited human resources. Much has been written in the Western media about estimated Russian losses and manpower issues, but very little about Ukraine’s.
Russia has large numbers of troops lost And a significant number of men eligible for military service have fled abroad. Ukraine also suffered heavy losses That are difficult to replaceAnd Millions of Ukrainians have left the country.
Not all Ukrainian men want to fight. The much smaller population of Ukraine means it definitely doesn’t have the same human resources available to Russia.
Ukraine simply cannot afford to launch successive counter-offensives, regardless of what equipment the West provides. The additional Western resources pledged to Ukraine while the counter-offensive is underway, Ukraine’s position may be strengthened, but it is unlikely to prove decisive.
Whether they like it or not, as I suggested last fallsooner or later both sides will have to recognize that the chances of “winning” this war are slim.
At some point there will have to be negotiations, if only for a ceasefire along the lines of the Korean War.
further escalation, maybe with NATO troopscould honestly risk seeing the use of nuclear weapons. Fortunately, debates in Russian policy circles about the potential for the use of nuclear weapons remain very hypotheticalat least for now.
Alexander hillprofessor of military history, University of Calgary
This article has been republished from The conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.
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