Global Courant 2023-05-24 01:47:27
Now that President Biden has agreed that NATO members can train Ukrainian pilots on the F-16, Ukraine is likely to get old F-16A/B aircraft. While upgraded to some degree, these planes date back to the 1970s or 1980s. They are not game-changers. Maybe they’ll boost morale, but once they get there (in three to six months or more), they won’t change the war in Ukraine.
Ukraine’s F-16s will likely come from Norwegian, Danish or Dutch inventories, most likely the latter. The Netherlands has reported ongoing negotiations between herself and Ukraine over the donation of the jets.
These are old versions of the F-16 (F-16A/B) that were partly upgraded in the early 2000s. Unlike the newer version, and unlike even the upgrade of the Taiwanese F-16s, the F-16s for Ukraine will not have advanced AESA radar.
The jets will be capable of carrying air-to-air and air-to-surface weapons, including the AIM 120 medium-range radar-guided air-to-air missile. The planes are better than the Ukrainian Mig-29s they are meant to replace, and much easier to operate. But if Ukraine wants to deploy these jets, repair facilities are needed.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy and Prime Minister Mark Rutte meet on May 4, 2023 in The Hague, Netherlands. Photo: Yves Herma / Pool
Setting up a repair facility in Ukraine can take more than a year, and training staff can take even longer. To keep these aircraft in the air, advanced components, such as the radar, must be able to be repaired or faulty parts removed and replaced. Aircraft radar software, computers and other systems must be maintained and upgraded as threats evolve.
Only the quickest and easiest component replacement is likely to be attempted in Ukraine. Otherwise, maintenance will have to take place in Europe, probably in the country of origin.
In addition to electronic components, these F-16s have a General Electric F-110 engine that must be serviced overseas.
The F-16 requires pristine long runways, which may not always be available in Ukraine. The jets may have to operate at half loads to get off shorter runways and the rough existing runways could damage airframes or equipment on board.
Part of the midlife upgrade included repairing cracks in the aircraft’s fuselage, particularly critical bulkheads. These repairs seemed good enough to bring the jets to the end-of-life timeline, which the Dutch Air Force estimated around 2023. But the calculation for the repair is mainly based on very good runways and constant inspection and maintenance. Decommissioned aircraft are not the best platforms for critical and long-duration combat operations, certainly not at high speed.
The biggest improvement for Ukraine is having a good platform to launch the AIM-120 air-to-air missile. AIM-120 is a beyond visual range missile that combines launching aircraft updates with autonomous operation. In practice, this means that enemy aircraft and ground installations could potentially interfere with the AIM-120 radar or linked communications. A hallmark of the war in Ukraine is the powerful and effective electronic warfare systems deployed by Russia. This is the first time that a European power actually operates in such a dense EW environment.
A more serious problem for all Ukrainian aircraft is the layered Russian air defense systems. These may limit the ability of the F-16 to get close enough to certain sensitive Russian installations, particularly Crimea, where the S-400 air defense system is deployed.
All things considered, Ukraine desperately needs the F-16 as its air force is depleted and its existing jet fighter inventory, if still flying, uses degraded equipment battered by the demands of the conflict. There are only a few inventories of used, capable aircraft. Ukraine is unlikely to get any more Mig-29s or Su-27s because none are available for purchase or transfer.
In addition to the F-16s that may be available from Norway, Denmark and the Netherlands, the other candidate is the Panavia Tornado. Germany has some, as do Italy and the UK. The Ukrainians didn’t ask for it, and in reality they are no longer a match for most of Russia’s top planes.
Royal Netherlands Air Force Panavia Tornado
Used F-16s at the end of their service life aren’t really going to change the war chessboard. The arrival of these jets should nonetheless be a morale booster for Ukraine.
Stephen Bryen is a senior fellow at the Center for Security Policy and the Yorktown Institute. This article was originally published about his substack, weapons and strategy. Global Courant republishes it with permission.
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