Global Courant 2023-04-13 11:00:00
Putin – GAVRIIL GRIGOROV/Shutterstock
The precise veracity of the large cache of intelligence documents out there apparently leaked from the Pentagon may be questionable, but there can be little doubt about the negative impact they have on Ukraine’s war effort. Even if the release of the documents turns out to be part of a clever disinformation campaign by Kremlin cybertrolls, it could prompt Ukraine’s high command to rethink its long-planned counter-offensive against Russian forces.
Ukrainian troops have undergone rigorous training throughout the winter before launching another wave of attacks against their Russian occupiers this spring, aiming to make a decisive breakthrough in the Kremlin’s ill-equipped and deeply demoralized front lines.
Preparations for the offensive included sending large detachments of Ukrainian troops to Europe for training, with several thousand escorted by the British Army. When the most recent consignment of Ukrainian volunteers began the long journey home from Salisbury Plain earlier this month, British troops formed a guard of honor with cries of “Slava Ukraini” – Glory to Ukraine – echoing through the ranks.
The planned offensive also lacks ambition. There is even talk of an attempt by the Ukrainians to retake the Crimean peninsula, home to Russia’s Black Sea naval fleet, which was occupied and illegally annexed by the Kremlin in 2014. As for the Russians, last month’s drone strikes, which destroyed stockpiles of Russian cruise missiles in northern Crimea, suggest that the Ukrainians are dead serious about achieving their target.
But with a dozen new Ukrainian brigades reportedly poised to join the fray – some of them equipped with western gear such as British Challenger 2 tanks and AS-90 self-propelled artillery guns – Ukrainian commanders are suddenly forced to reconsider their plans.
Story continues
Some of the claims in the leaks – such as the suggestion that Britain has 50 special forces operating in the war-torn country – have been rejected, in this case by the Defense Ministry, which it called “misinformation”. In the murky world of counterintelligence, it is often difficult to separate fact from fiction, and even if the leaked material relates to live intelligence generated by the US and its allies, there is always the possibility that it has been subjected to Russian manipulation.
Nevertheless, there is a significant amount of detail that seems highly plausible – and while some facts may have been altered (Russian and Ukrainian casualties, for example), U.S. officials have acknowledged that most of it appears to be real.
Perhaps most disturbing to Kiev will be evidence of the Americans’ somewhat gloomy view of the Ukrainian forces’ ability to mount and sustain major offensive operations.
The damning assessment of, for example, Ukraine’s air defenses, which are said to be in danger of being overwhelmed without significant amounts of additional weaponry, is of serious concern. The Ukrainians have been warning for months that without new supplies of Western fighter jets, such as F-16 fighters and missiles, they will be vulnerable to Russian attacks. Certainly, no rational Ukrainian commander would want to risk the newly formed combat brigades without being able to provide effective air cover.
The documents also seem to confirm what many of us have feared since the beginning of this terrible conflict: that some Western leaders have little faith in Ukraine’s ability to achieve victory. An early February document cast doubts on the prospects of Ukraine’s imminent counter-offensive, warning that difficulties in generating and maintaining sufficient troops will only result in “modest territorial gains”.
Thus, even Kiev’s strongest allies may believe that the Ukrainian conflict is heading for a bloody stalemate. This could encourage those Western leaders who already have reservations about maintaining their support for Ukraine. This could even affect their commitment to sending arms and other aid, which will alarm Kiev as it faces crippling shortages. A lack of ammunition has recently reduced part of Ukraine’s front line to firing just two shells a day, compared to 20-30 before.
These assessments will certainly be an encouragement to Moscow’s troops who, while lacking the resources to launch their own offensives, have managed to strengthen their defenses. According to the latest reports from British military intelligence this week, the Russians have completed the construction of three new defense lines along a 120-kilometer stretch of eastern Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia region to protect Crimea from attack.
Regardless of the validity of the information contained in the leaked documents, the conflict in Ukraine may be approaching a turning point, a point where, without Kiev getting more support from the West, there is a real risk that the war will eventually turn in Vladimir Putin’s favour. .
